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Climate- Bank Holiday Weather -Temperatures set to soar - but Lincolnshire needs rain
Updated: 02 May 2013
Bank Holiday Weather: Temperatures To Soar
Sky News –
Bank Holiday Weather: Temperatures To Soar
But my Lincolnshire garden and Allotment need rain-Radical
Britain looks set for a balmy Bank Holiday weekend, with temperatures expected to reach up to 21C on Monday.
After the coldest start to spring for more than 50 years, forecasters say a prolonged period of dry, "rather warm" weather will arrive just in time for the three-day break.
Many areas are expected to remain dry throughout the weekend, with light showers across central England, Wales and Scotland on Saturday clearing by the evening.
Sunny spells are forecast across the country on Sunday but Monday looks better still, with temperatures set to climb well above the 14.7C average maximum temperature for May.
Sky News weather forecaster Nazaneen Ghaffar said there is "some uncertainty" in the forecast but added: "It looks like Monday will be warm and mainly dry across southern areas, thanks to a south-westerly air flow pushing in warmer air.
"However, there will be the risk of rain across northern and western parts of the UK and Ireland."
London and the South East will enjoy the warmest weather on Monday, although temperatures could reach 17C in Wales and 18C in western areas.
Scotland and Northern Ireland will be a little cooler, with highs of around 15C.
The Met Office said the weather is set fair until mid-May, when "slightly more unsettled, showery conditions" are forecast.
"Temperatures should recover from near normal towards rather warm, and it will feel pleasantly warm in any sunshine inland," a spokesman said.
"Towards the end of next week, temperatures should rise further and become warm across many inland areas under strong spring sunshine."
The warm spell follows the coldest March in the UK since 1962.
Mean temperatures plummeted to 2.5C - 3C lower than the long-term average and were the joint fourth coolest since records began |
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Climate- A Weather "Forecast" for Farmers
Updated: 27 Apr 2013
New Farmers Weather service launch from Farmers Guardian
26 April 2013
FARMERS Guardian is launching a new daily weather service specifically for farmers this week.
Farmers Weather will see a new, in-depth video forecast launched online at lunch time every day at
www.farmersguardian.com, www.arablefarming.com and www.farmersweather.co.uk.
The new service will be a detailed look at the UK’s weather forecast, explained Farmers Guardian editor Emma Penny.
She said: “We know many farmers watch Sunday night’s Countryfile forecast to see the week ahead. Our new
service will be aiming to provide that level of detail, and more, every day, to help farmers better plan ahead.
“By launching the new forecast at lunchtime every day, we are using the very latest computer model information –
this will be the most up-to-date farmers weather forecast available. It will cover tomorrow’s forecast, up to the next
seven to 10 days and will look in-depth at what is happening.”
Farmers Weather is being presented by Dr Simon Keeling, who said he is a ‘self-confessed weather anorak’.
He is a Fellow of the Royal Meterological Society, has completed a PhD in forecasting and presented the weather
on GMTV. Dr Keeling now broadcasts and trains weather people for the BBC and other television stations as well
as specialising in providing accurate, in-depth weather forecasts for many industries.
Dr Keeling said: “For too long farmers have had to rely on forecasts which are not attuned to their needs. We are
aiming to provide an interpretation of what is happening with weather patterns so producers can plan work more
accurately.”
Farmers Weather relies on information from more than 20 worldwide meteorological computer models which
becomes available by 11am every morning, explained Dr Keeling.
“We use a vast amount of data from the world’s leading atmospheric computer models, but the crucial thing is
that we will be interpreting what the outputs mean for farmers.”
The aim is for the video forecasts to be online by 12.30pm every day, seven days a week, though there may be
some initial issues which may delay timings a little. Dr Keeling is also writing a new weekly weather column in
Farmers Guardian (see p9), while a premium rate weather forecasting line is also available for anyone seeking a
forecast specifically for their farm.
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Climate- From Russia with Love to the Iron Lady
Updated: 09 Apr 2013
Cold weather slows UK retail sales growth in March - BRC
1 of 5. People carry shopping bags down a snow covered street in Llangollen, north Wales, March 25, 2013.
Credit: Reuters/Phil Noble
LONDON | Tue Apr 9, 2013 12:18am BST
LONDON (Reuters) - Growth in British retail sales slowed last month despite a boost from an early Easter, as
unseasonably cold weather hurt demand for summer clothes and shoes, industry data showed on Tuesday.
The British Retail Consortium said retail sales values rose 1.9 percent from a year earlier on a like-for-like
measure, which strips out changes in stores' floor space and is favoured by equity analysts. That compared
with a 2.7 percent increase in February.
Easter fell at the end of March this year but in April last year, flattering the year-on-year comparison in sales,
especially of food and homewares. But poor weather had the opposite effect on shoppers.
"Food was boosted by a continued appetite for hearty meals and 'wintry' fare such as roasts and chocolate. But
demand was cool for new-season clothing and footwear lines, resulting in a decline for both categories," said
BRC Director General Helen Dickinson.
But she added: "Even if we strip out the data for the last week of March, performances are encouraging,
considering the weather impact."
Robust average sales growth in the first three months of 2013 provided a further reason for optimism, with sales
rising at the strongest annual pace since the last quarter of 2009 on a like-for-like basis.
The BRC data adds to hopes that Britain's economy eked out growth in the first quarter, avoiding a third
recession in less than five years, after a survey of purchasing managers showed that the dominant services
sector expanded in early 2013.
(Reporting by Olesya Dmitracova; Editing by Catherine Evans)
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Climate-A food shortage as crops have not been growing will lead to increased imports and costs
Updated: 07 Apr 2013
Trouble in store for agriculture:
Crops and gardens join the economy in not growing
Special report:
The harsh weather has led to the loss of livestock and problems in both vegetable and cereal production
For many of us, the gloom of Britain's six-month winter will finally be over this week when warmer temperatures
herald the actual arrival of spring.
But for those in the farming, horticultural and food industries, the misery of
what has been dubbed the "springter" is set to continue for weeks.
Rural bankruptcy, soaring food prices and lack of consumer confidence are warning signs that the economy
could tip into triple-dip recession later this month.
With soil temperatures still at winter levels, garden centres and nurseries are reporting their worst Easter for
years, as green-fingered consumers failed to spend money on plants they cannot get into the ground.
As many crops need to be sown by the middle of April before the optimal sowing period ends, this has led to
fears that unless the weather improves significantly in the next 10 days, farming in the UK will be in crisis.
Farmers have suffered catastrophic losses of livestock due to freezing temperatures and drifting snow, with the
national body responsible for collecting carcasses revealing a 16 per cent rise in dead sheep and nearly 6 per
cent in dead cattle, compared with this time last year.
The National Fallen Stock Company (NFSCo) said it expected thousands more dead lambs and cows that were
hidden in drifts to be revealed over the coming days as temperatures rise, and it could take until May to uncover
the true scale of the losses. In order to cope with the huge numbers of carcasses, ministers have approved an
emergency opt-out of EU rules (imposed after the BSE crisis) banning the burial of dead animals on farmland.
The number of sheep that died between January and March this year in the UK is almost 150,000, an increase of
nearly 20,000 on the same period last year.
The figure for cattle is more than 82,000 in the first three months of this year, an increase of nearly 5,000.
The NFSCo said these figures excluded dead animals in the most badly-hit regions, such as Cumbria and
Scotland, because snow would still be hiding carcasses.
Michael Seals, the NFSCo chairman, said the company was trying to help farmers in the worst hit regions, by
coordinating compensation packages from the Government and offering cheaper prices for bulk collections.
Yesterday, it emerged that because the bad weather has ravaged crops so badly Britain is expected to become a
net importer of wheat later this year for the first time in a decade.
Peter Kendall, the National Farmers Union president, said last year's wet summer meant more than two million
tonnes of wheat was lost and the cold winter could threaten this season.
Mr Kendall said farmers were now facing a "perfect storm" of problems because of the cold, including the loss of
livestock and produce and mounting debts.
Although the wheat shortage is unlikely to affect the price of bread – because it contributes to only 10 per cent of
the cost – there are likely to be shortages of other crops due to the cold weather, which in turn could lead to
higher prices.
Guy Poskitt, a member of the NFU's Horticulture and Potatoes Board and himself a carrot farmer in Goole, East
Yorkshire, said: "Nothing is growing and the prospect of early crops or high yielding summer crops looks low.
Another year of shortage is highly likely and I think planted areas are down generally, due to poor returns."
Tim Papworth, a potato farmer from Norfolk, said: "Nothing has moved on the land for a while, we are well behind
on planting potatoes and drilling peas, which will push the whole season back."
Anthony Snell, a soft fruit farmer in Herefordshire, said that while it was good for his crops to have chill during the
winter, planting and ground preparation was "way behind".
He added: "Any prospect of an early start to the British season for soft fruit is now a distant memory.
Soft fruit crops under polytunnels and fleece are not growing due to the extreme conditions and low light levels.
Yields and production will inevitably be down," he added.
"But there will be a consistent programme of production through the season to ensure we have enough soft fruit
for every summer barbeque and event."
Next month's Chelsea Flower Show, which marks its 100th anniversary, could also be badly hit.
The Royal Horticultural Society said some growers and designers were struggling to get plants ready in time for
the event, which begins in six weeks. Jinny Blom, who is creating the B&Q garden in conjunction with Prince
Harry's charity Sentebale, is among several designers experiencing problems in getting plants ready.
And the Woodland Trust reported that spring sightings of ladybirds have fallen tenfold since last year, from 1,169
to 119, while numbers of cuckoos and hedgehogs are also substantially lower.
The Easter weekend, traditionally the busiest time of year for garden centres, has been one of the worst for trade
in recent years.
A number of large garden centres have reported sales down by as much as 50 per cent.
Steve Ashworth, managing director of the Wyevale Nurseries chain, said sales to garden centres were down by
50 per cent in comparison with March last year, while its overall sales were down by 30 per cent.
He said: "Our team had virtually nothing to do over the Easter period; we stood many people down."
Robby Ward, owner of the Alleyn Park Garden Centre in south London, said its sales were down 46 per cent on
this time last year.
"It has been a horrendous March," he said.
"We have cut down on most products and are being very careful in what plants we are buying in.
People who would normally spend money in March [with us] have spent it on something else.
We will never recoup that."
Additional reporting by Natalie Glanvill
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Climate- UK Icy weather to continue.This will affect crops and feed for animals growing season
Updated: 28 Mar 2013
'We'll freeze for another month':
Icy weather gripping UK could last until end of April, say forecasters
Many transport routes across the UK remain impassable because of deep snow drifts
Rob Williams
Wednesday 27 March 2013
Britain is set to remain in the grip of freezing temperatures until the end of next month, forecasters have predicted.
The unseasonable weather has seen the country deluged by snow, blizzards and plummeting temperatures.
Forecasters are predicting that temperatures are unlikely to recover to normal averages for the time of year until
the latter part of April.
Sub-zero temperatures look set to bring misery to thousands of people for the rest of the week and throughout
Easter weekend as the dangerous wintry weather shows no immediate signs of abating.
Britain has been deluged with snow that has left thousands of people in western Scotland facing a sixth day
without power.
Many transport routes across the UK remain impassable because of deep snow drifts.
More than 3,000 people in Argyll in Scotland and the Isle of Arran were without power after ice and snow
damaged pylons, damaging the electricity network.
Farmers have been left counting the cost of the blizzard conditions, with many having to rescue stranded
livestock at the height of the lambing season.
An RAF Chinook helicopter was called in yesterday to help as part of an emergency operation in Northern
Ireland as farms and families were cut off by huge snow drifts.
The Met Office has issued a cold weather alert for much of England, with a 100% probability of severe cold
weather and icy conditions until Friday.
Its outlook for Sunday to April 9 predicts cold, dry weather, with a few light snow flurries and widespread frost
and icy patches overnight.
And the Met Office predicts temperatures are unlikely to recover to nearer normal values until the latter part of April.
Gemma Plumb, a forecaster with MeteoGroup, the weather division of the Press Association, said that while
there was no forecast for more big snow falls, it would remain very cold for the rest of the week, with
temperatures as low as minus 6C (21.2F) overnight and ranging from 4C to 8C (39F to 46.4F) in the day time.
"By the time we get to April some places could be 4C or 5C below the average for the month.
The South East is likely to see temperatures of 6C to 8C (43F 46.4F), but the average for April is 12C or 13C
(53.6F to 55.4F)," she said.
"There will be some sunny spells around at times, and a few light snow flurries around at times, especially in the east.
"High pressure will start to build across the UK, so there will be fewer snow flurries and more in the way of dry
weather over Easter weekend, but it will remain very cold.
"Sunny spells might begin to thaw the snow, but winds from the East could cause more drifts.
There are no real signs of warmer weather moving in at this time." |
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Climate- Extreme weather - meet the storm chasers
Updated: 28 Mar 2013
Extreme weather science: Meet the storm chasers
FLYING into the heart of a hurricane, half a kilometre above the Atlantic Ocean, meteorologist Frank Marks
began to fear for his life. Contrary to his expectations, the eye of the storm was no haven of calm – screaming
winds were pummelling his aircraft.
"The winds had pretty much trashed the inside of the plane," he says.
Just when he thought things couldn't get any worse, one of the plane's four engines failed.
That was back in 1989. Marks, now director of the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's
Hurricane Research Division in Miami, Florida, recalls the frantic hour he spent attempting to repair the plane
before somehow managing to land.
He's been flying into storms ever since.
"I will never be bored of seeing the tropical sky," he says.
Marks is part of a disparate community of researchers who specialise in extreme weather and its effects on
society.
Thanks to human-made climate change, events like storms, heatwaves and floods are on the rise, and there is
growing demand for people who understand these phenomena and can advise the rest of us on how to handle
them.
Marks, for one, is using radar to measure the rainfall pattern within a storm, which gives clues to the storm's
size and likely path.
Jonathan Taylor, head of observation-based research at the Met Office in Exeter, UK, also flies modified planes
into weather events to study them.
When the Icelandic volcano Eyjafjallajökull erupted in 2010 and left a troublesome ash cloud in the sky, Taylor's
team flew straight into the haze.
The researchers' measurements of the cloud and its ash particles enabled them to predict how long it might
continue to disrupt air travel.
If the thought of joining a storm-hunting team appeals, a degree in meteorology is a good place to start, says
Marks.
But it's not just meteorologists who fly into storms.
About half of Taylor's team is made up of engineers who maintain the aircraft and design software to analyse
the data collected.
People trained in risk assessment and communication are also valuable to extreme weather research, says
Marks.
When hurricane Irene hit the north-eastern US in 2011, the governor of Maryland state, Martin O'Malley, asked
Marks when he should shut the bridge across Chesapeake Bay.
It is a straightforward enough question, but no one had prepared an answer, says Marks, who will be looking for
communication skills in future colleagues.
MeteoGroup, an international weather consultancy, is often called on by companies for similar advice.
Its meteorologists are quizzed over when specific roads are likely to freeze over and need gritting, when strong
winds might damage electricity cables and when storms might pose a threat to oil rigs.
THE COASTAL DEFENDERS
As last year's dramatic images of waterlogged streets across the UK, US and Russia serve to remind us,
extreme weather events can trigger devastating floods. Preventing them will, in part, involve investigating
exactly how tides overcome coastal defences, and how we can protect coasts from worsening erosion.
That's why Gerd Masselink at Plymouth University, UK, has set up the country's first mobile coastal response
unit. As soon as his team hears of an approaching coastal storm, the members head out to monitor the damage
(see "A week in the life of a storm chaser", page 49). It certainly beats camping out on beaches in winter, waiting
for bad weather to hit, which is what the team used to do.
"We realised, if we really want to do this, we need to be more mobile," says Masselink.
"So we bought a van and trailer, and equipment that could be set up in one day."
Masselink's team uses laser scanners to monitor the changing shape of a beach during a storm.
The data collected will help us understand the effect of storms on coasts and help predict the impact of future
storms.
The team is particularly interested in the damage storms do to gravel and shingle beaches.
Most of the UK's nuclear power stations are on the coast, and although those coastlines are stable now, they
may not remain so.
"Sea levels are rising and storms are becoming more intense," Masselink says.
His work might be able to tell us how secure our nuclear power stations really are.
Masselink developed an interest in coastal science while studying for a degree in physical geography, which he
followed up with a PhD.
Today he is professor of coastal geomorphology.
"If research is the thing that makes you tick, you have to become an academic," he says.
With coastal expertise, you can also look forward to plenty of opportunities in the private sector that will pay
better than academia.
These are generally consultancy work, advising governments and companies on how to build and adapt
coastal infrastructure.
THE FIRESTARTERS
A jeep slowly rolls through a Canadian forest while its passenger blasts out jets of fire from the back of the
vehicle using a flamethrower.
It isn't a scene from a Vietnam war movie, but a bona fide study of wildfires.
As the world warms, we can expect more extreme heat, which in turn can trigger wildfires.
More than 90 bush fires ravaged Australia recently after temperatures rose so high that the country's Bureau of
Meteorology had to add a new colour to its heat map.
"Worldwide, we are getting more fires, and more fires in populated areas," says Stefan Doerr at Swansea
University, UK.
Doerr routinely starts wildfires in heath and gorse areas in the UK and around the world to try to understand
how such blazes might affect the ecosystem.
Beyond harming people and property, wildfires have insidious after-effects on vegetation and water supplies.
"You get lots of run-off, which means floods and landslides, and contamination of reservoirs and rivers," Doerr
says. His team's findings help agencies like the US Forest Service identify regions at risk.
Along with research, there are good careers to be had in fire management. A degree or PhD in geography,
biology, environmental science or engineering is advisable.
Wildfire researchers have to enjoy working in remote locations, says Doerr, who recently returned from
Patagonia.
"You've also got to be ready to go whenever there's an event."
And for the reader who might be tempted to try this at home: flame-throwing experience is not a requirement
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Climate- Who would be a Farmer ? -Wintry Weather playing havoc with stock management
Updated: 26 Mar 2013
Spring snow wreaks havoc on UK farms
25 March 2013 | By Olivia Midgley
THE wintry weather conditions are once again wreaking havoc on farms across the UK with some reports of l
ivestock being buried in several metres of snow.
Farmers in the Peak District, Cumbria, Yorkshire and parts of Scotland struggled to get to their stock at a time
when many are still lambing.
Heavy drifting snow over the weekend has placed many ewes and lambs in peril and severely disrupted the
delivery of vital feed and fuel stocks.
In Dumfries and Galloway and parts of Argyll and the Islands, the daily collection of milk has also been badly
affected with several farmers having to pour away overflowing tanks.
Many roads are still impassable, with the Met Office issuing severe weather warnings for snow and ice.
Thousands of homes in Scotland and Northern Ireland have been left without power since the weekend, after
snow and strong winds damaged cables.
NFU Scotland Dumfries and Galloway regional chairman Andrew McCornick, who farms at Barnbackle, Lochfoot,
Dumfries, said: “We are well through our annual lambing so the snow couldn’t have hit at a worse time.
“We have managed to dig our way around most of the fields with ewes and lambs in them. We managed to get
feed to those that we have found and we have been digging many of them out of the snow.
“The drifting snow is so bad that there are still many vulnerable sheep that we are still battling to get to and we
know that we are likely to face losses when the snow has cleared.” |
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Climate-UK - Bring back the Gulf Stream
Updated: 23 Mar 2013
United Kingdom
Warnings
Friday 22 March Published at 23:30
UK Warnings
Weather Warning
2013-03-22 23:30:01
Saturday 23rd March
YELLOW WARNING of SNOW
Further snow showers are expected, bringing mainly slight accumulations of snow but perhaps a few cm over
some inland and hilly parts. Ice may continue to be a problem night and morning, primarily on untreated surfaces.
The public should be aware of the possibility of further localised disruption, for example to travel.
Valid from 2200 Thursday until 1100 Saturday.
Saturday 23rd March
AMBER WARNING of SNOW
Heavy snow will continue to affect Northern Ireland on Friday night and early Saturday morning. Highest snow
accumulations will again be across the hills of Antrim and Down, with strong to gale force southeasterly winds
giving drifting and blizzard conditions.
Further accumulations of 5-10 cm or so are possible at low-level, though towards the east coast rain and sleet will
be more prevalent, with a risk of localised flooding.
The public should be prepared for the possibility of continued severe disruption, particularly to transport and to
power supplies.
This is an extension to the warning issued earlier on Friday.
Valid from 2210 Friday until 0600 Saturday.
Saturday 23rd March
AMBER WARNING of SNOW
A band of heavy rain spreading northwards across the UK has turned to snow in many parts, with some heavy
and persistent snowfall likely across parts of northwest England, north Midlands and northeast Wales into
Saturday morning.
High ground within the warning area may see snow accumulations of 20-40cm in places, with drifting and
blizzard conditions due to the strong to gale force southeasterly winds. At lower levels, 10-15cm of snow is likely
in places.
The public should be aware of the potential for severe disruption to transport and to power supplies.
Valid from 1400 Friday until 0600 Saturday.
Saturday 23rd March
YELLOW WARNING of SNOW
A slow-moving band of rain, sleet and snow will continue to affect many central and eastern parts of the UK
during Saturday.
Further significant snow accumulations are likely on hills, with continued drifting and blizzard conditions in the
strong southeasterly winds.
At lower levels, some areas could see 5-10cm of snow, though details on locations most at risk remains very
uncertain at this stage.
The public should be aware of the continued risk of significant disruption.
This updates the warning issued earlier on Friday, reflecting the increased likelihood of accumulations of 2-5 cm
of snow on higher ground around London and Kent during Saturday, and some temporary accumulations of 1-2
cm at low-levels.
Valid on Saturday from 0005 until 2359.
Saturday 23rd March
YELLOW WARNING of SNOW
Snow will continue to fall across much of the Midlands, East Anglia and southeast England on Sunday morning
with accumulations of a further 2-5cm possible, especially on high ground.
The public should be aware of further disruption to travel.
Valid on Sunday from 0005 until 1200.
Flood Warning
2013-03-22 23:30:40
Saturday 23rd March
There are flood warnings in force in the following region:
SOUTHWEST (2)
Further updates will appear here.
About the Met Office Weather Warnings
BBC Weather carries two types of weather warnings issued by the Met Office: Warnings and Early Warnings.
Warnings will be issued when severe weather is expected within the next 24 hours.
Early Warnings will be issued more than 24 hours ahead of severe weather.
There are three categories of event Red, Amber and Yellow - the most severe is Red.
A Warning and an Early Warning of the same colour have the same severity but are forecast to arrive at different
times. Thus, the difference between a Red Warning and a Red Early Warning is the lead time of the event.
When a warning is in force, full information can be found at Met Office Weather Warnings
About the Environment Agency Flood Warnings
The flood warnings are issued by the Environment Agency and the Scottish Environment Protection Agency and
sent to the BBC Weather Centre, we then issue a compendium of warnings based on the latest information
available. When severe flood warnings are issued they will also be highlighted on TV broadcasts.
Find out more about Flood Warnings
There are a number of ways you find out whether your area is at risk from flooding. Both the Environment Agency
(for England and Wales) and the Scottish Environment Protection Agency update their warnings 24 hours a day
via the Floodline number.
Floodline - 0845 988 1188
Monthly Outlook
Monday 18 March Published at 10:00
Monthly Outlook
Summary
Spring refuses to spring
This coming Tuesday sees the spring equinox, and on Sunday 31st March we will all be springing forward our
clocks by one hour and lamenting a lost hour of sleep.
However, the lighter evenings will be welcomed by many as thoughts turn to longer, warmer days.
Perhaps a pity, then, that the weather seems resolutely stuck in winter?
Monday 18 March—Sunday 24 March
Spring arrives, winter won't budge
The week begins with low pressure dominating and looks set to end in a similar vein. A cyclonic easterly to
south-easterly means it will be mostly unsettled and rather cold. Ice and frost will be night-time hazards, but we'll
also be talking about snow on most days as well.
The air across the UK will be cold enough such that any precipitation may fall as snow at times, and this will be
the case on Monday and Tuesday in north-eastern parts of the country. The snow will fall over the hills at first,
drifting in strong easterly winds, but across the east of Scotland the snow soon be falling at lower levels too. On
Tuesday the zone of wintry weather will shift southward, increasing the risk of settling snow across inland parts
of northern England and especially higher ground exposed to the brisk easterly wind.
Further south on Monday and Tuesday there will be a mix of sunshine and scattered showers, some of these
heavy with a risk of hail and thunder and perhaps some sleet or wet snow in the heaviest ones.
From around midweek a ridge of high pressure starts to nudge southwards, which will help to cut off the strong
easterly flow across the north. Wednesday and Thursday will see fewer showers, and overnight there will be fog patches and a widespread frost, locally severe over any lying snow.
On Friday, as an Atlantic low tries to encroach on the UK, a strong southeasterly wind establishes itself. As
weather fronts try to push in against the colder air across the north and east of the country, hill snow is likely in
the west, with some heavy rain in southwest England. The most noticeable feature on Friday, however, will be the
increasingly significant wind chill.
At the weekend, as the battleground between mild and cold sets up over the UK, there is a risk of significant
snowfall and even blizzards over central and northern parts of the country.
Monday 25 March—Sunday 31 March
Only the clocks will spring forward
A new month approaches, as does British Summer Time, but it doesn't look as though there'll be much change in
the weather. Spring still looks like being put on hold, with a cold easterly likely to persist for much of the time in
the north. This will lead to northern and many central areas seeing below of well below average temperatures,
with overnight frosts.
Southern parts may see temperatures recovering a little closer to normal, but with low pressure tending to
dominate the south and west of the country this isn't likely to be accompanied by much in the way of spring sunshine.
Monday 1 April—Sunday 14 April
New month, same old weather?
As April begins, the pressure pattern looks like becoming easterly for northern parts and more unsettled with
west- to south-westerly winds for southern and central parts of the UK.
This will therefore continue the cold theme across northern and eastern parts of the country, with night frosts
possible. However, with milder weather arriving on those Atlantic winds, south Wales and southern and central
parts of England could see temperatures close to or even a little above the early April average.
Unsettled of course means precipitation, and as a result sunshine will still be lacking despite the trend towards
something less cold in the south and southwest.
Next week
Will the milder air make greater inroads across the UK, or will winter bite back again?
Monthly forecasting
The weather beyond about a week ahead stretches even the most experienced weather forecaster. Complex
numerical weather forecast models from the Met Office and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather
Forecasts (ECMWF) are run many times for the month (and season) ahead to build up a picture of the likelihood of
different weather types affecting the UK.
Next update at 10:00, Monday 25 March
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Climate - Thailand- 50% chance of T storms
Updated: 25 Jan 2013
Climate- Bangkok and Pattaya weather alert
50% Expectation of T storms daily through to Wednesday next |
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Climate- Snow arrives, the Temperature falls and more of the same is on the way.
Updated: 16 Jan 2013
Snow moves in - with worse to come
Press Association – Mon, Jan 14, 2013 17:45 GMT
…
Large swathes of the UK have been struck by heavy snowfall, causing travel problems for motorists and rail users - with forecasters warning the worst is yet to come.
Six inches of snow (15cm) could fall on high ground later on Monday, according to MeteoGroup, the weather division of the Press Association.
The weather has already led to more than 20 motorists needing to be rescued by the AA from cars that had become stuck and led one rail operator to introduce a speed restiction and cancel services.
John Lee, forecaster for MeteoGroup, said: "Over the next 12 hours there is the chance of 5-10cm (2-4in) quite widely in the North East, East Midlands and East Anglia.
Some of the hills in the North York Moors and the Lincolnshire Wolds could see 10-15cm (4-6ins)."
After large parts of England were hit by snow this morning a second heavier band is moving south and east.
The Met Office issued an amber weather warning for snow focused on the East Midlands, eastern England, the
North East and Yorkshire, warning the public to be prepared for the risk of disruption.
The AA said it had attended around 9,000 breakdowns so far - including 23 cars stuck in snow, mainly in the
Grampians in Scotland, Oxfordshire and the East Midlands.
A spokesman said breakdowns are currently coming in at more than 1,100 every hour peaking earlier at around
1,750 and the AA expects to attend more than 16,000 for the day, compared to around 10,500 on an average Monday.
Rail operator Greater Anglia said routes between London Liverpool Street and Cambridge, Colchester, Ipswich and
Norwich would be subject to a 60mph speed limit because of the snow. Some parts of Norfolk and Lincolnshire
could get a second snowfall as the weather system spins out over the North Sea overnight and back towards land
again, Mr Lee added.
The rest of the country should have a dry but chilly day tomorrow.
Temperatures in Scotland, the North East and Eastern England will struggle to rise above zero, while London will
get to around 3C (37F).
The warmest place in the country will be Cornwall, which will get to around 8C (46F)
Temperatures are expected to drop further to around minus 8C (17.6F) on Wednesday night with the possibility of
more light snow flurries.
Motorists were warned by the Highways Agency to take extra care tonight and into the early hours on roads made
slippery by snow and sleet in freezing temperatures. |
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Climate-Global warming "at a standstill" or another "Fishy" tale from the UK Met Office
Updated: 12 Jan 2013
Has global warming ground to a halt?
The UK's Met Office has downgraded its forecast for warming at the Earth's surface over the next five years.
Headlines this week announced that global warming is "at a standstill".
Climate sceptics crowed. But the Met Office said the outlook for later in the century remains unchanged. New Scientist looks at the facts
Has global warming stopped, or hasn't it?
Atmospheric warming has certainly slowed greatly in the past decade.
The Met Office says this appears to be due to natural cycles that are counteracting the warming effect of
greenhouse gases. After incorporating new analysis of natural cycles into its latest model of atmospheric and
ocean circulation, it has concluded that we are in for a few more years of little change.
Having calculated annual global temperatures for the next five years, its best guess is that they will be, on
average, 0.43 °C higher than the average for 1970 to 2000.
That's down from its previous prediction of a 0.54 °C rise. If the new prediction proves right, then 2017 will barely
be warmer than most years in the past decade.
The forecast comes with a big error bar, however.
The average warming for the next five years could be as much as 0.59 °C, or as little as 0.28 °C.
What has changed in their thinking?
There is a growing awareness among climate scientists of the importance of natural variability in predicting
climate change, especially in the short term, where it can completely obscure the global warming signal.
This realisation has been bubbling up for a while.
Four years ago, New Scientist reported evidence – including research by the Met Office's Doug Smith – that
natural cycles were pushing the atmosphere into a cold phase.
Back then, we said the research "suggests that surface air temperatures will remain steady for the next six years
or so, as cooler sea surface temperatures keep the lower atmosphere cool despite ever higher greenhouse gas levels".
So what are these natural cycles?
Mostly they involve the movement of heat between the atmosphere and the oceans.
The oceans are the sleeping giant of climate change.
They act as a huge heat sink: 90 per cent of the heat generated by accumulating greenhouse gases is absorbed
by the oceans.
How fast this happens is variable, depending on ocean currents and other fluctuations.
Scientists have known for a long time that in El Niño years, when warm water spreads out across the equatorial
Pacific, heat leaves the ocean for the atmosphere. But there are also longer-term cycles.
The biggest cycles are known as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation.
Recently, both have been causing the oceans to absorb more heat, shutting off atmospheric warming.
There are other possible confounding influences.
The 11-year solar cycle has a small effect. So do volcanic eruptions and smog that shades the earth.
Longer term, changes in Earth's orbit are thought to trigger ice ages.
But all the evidence is that in recent times and over the coming decades, ocean-atmosphere interactions are the
only influence comparable in scale to greenhouse gases.
Are these cycles just something scientists have invented to explain away the lack of recent warming?
No.
The Met Office admits that we still know far too little about how these natural cycles work, and how big they are.
And climate scientists are open to the charge that they ignored the potential impact of natural variability when it
was accelerating global warming. According to Brian Hoskins of Imperial College London, it now looks like
natural cycles played a big role in the unexpectedly fast warming of the 1990s.
Even so, the fundamental physics about how greenhouse gases trap heat in the atmosphere hasn't changed.
And we know that, even as atmospheric warming stalls, the oceans are continuing to warm.
That may could explain why Arctic sea ice melted so dramatically last summer, even though air temperatures
were not exceptional.
So press reports that global warming is at a standstill are not true, even in the short term.
Right now the oceans are taking up almost all the extra heat.
That is most unlikely to persist.
Now we're getting headlines about the warming stopping as well as headlines about record-breaking temperatures.
What do we make of it all?
There is lots of natural variability at local scales.
Last year the US had its hottest year on record, but for the planet as a whole, it was only the ninth warmest.
Australia is feeling the brunt of a record-breaking heatwave at the minute, but in northern India they are dying f
rom unusually cold temperatures.
What's the outlook?
Scary.
If oceanic cycles do what the Met Office and others expect, then global average air temperatures will stay fairly
stable – though still hotter than they have been in the past – until later this decade.
The cycles will then flip into a new phase and the oceans will probably start releasing heat instead of soaking it
up.
Combined with continued accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, that could mean that sometime
round 2020, warming will start to race away again as the atmosphere makes up for lost time.
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Climate- Extreme weather is becoming the norm - Act now. Don't wait until its too late
Updated: 08 Jan 2013
Sea level rise could lead to a cooler, stormier world
15:51 07 January 2013
by Michael Le Page
A catastrophic rise in sea level before the end of the century could have a hitherto-unforeseen side effect.
Melting icebergs might cool the seas around Greenland and Antarctica so much that the average surface
temperature of the entire planet falls by a few degrees, according to unpublished work by climate scientist
James Hansen of NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York City.
While it might sound welcome, the temperature differences produced by the "iceberg cooling effect" could lead
to even more climate chaos in a world already devastated by extreme weather.
Winter storms, for instance, are powered by the temperature differences between the poles and the equator, so
there might be storms of unprecedented ferocity.
And the temporary cooling would be deceptive.
Due to the greenhouse effect, the planet as a whole would still be accumulating heat - it's just that vast amounts
of heat would be going into melting ice and warming water.
"It's a redistribution of heat energy," says Daniel Sigman of Princeton University, who studies the end of the last
ice age and was not involved in Hansen's work.
Freezer door
To visualise the cooling effect, imagine being shut in a stiflingly hot kitchen.
You could cool the air by flinging open the freezer and letting the food defrost.
The kitchen as a whole will not lose heat if there is nowhere for it to escape to, but some of the heat energy will
go into defrosting the freezer rather than warming the air.
Most climate scientists think the "freezer door" will remain firmly shut this century, but not Hansen.
He has longed warned that there could be a huge rise in sea level this century and, with colleagues Makiko Sato
and Reto Ruedy, he recently simulated the possible effects.
Hansen included a brief summary of some of the results in an analysis of Greenland ice loss released in December.
He told New Scientist a full paper is being prepared for publication, but would not discuss the details.
Assuming a disastrous 0.6-metre sea level rise by 2065, Hansen's model suggests the average global surface
temperature would be just 1.5 °C warmer than in preindustrial times, compared to 1.9 °C without the iceberg cooling effect.
With a massive 1.4-metre rise by 2080, the surface temperature would fall by 0.9 °C, instead of rising by 2.2 °C.
Although most of the world would remain much warmer than now, northern Europe might cool to preindustrial
levels and the UK might actually be chillier.
Other climate scientists are reluctant to comment before seeing the full details, but Sigman points out that
climate modellers have long done experiments looking at the complex effects of melting ice sheets.
These experiments also typically show regional cooling, but in Hansen's simulation the effect is much greater.
The likely reason for the difference is because his simulation assumes a much more rapid acceleration of ice
loss, doubling every 10 years.
Most other climate scientists think the ice sheets will only melt slowly, largely because this is what happened at
the end of past ice ages.
Hansen, however, thinks this logic is flawed.
The reason that sea level only rose slowly in the past, he writes, is because the planet only warmed slowly.
After the last ice age, for instance, it took 10,000 years for the average global temperature to rise around 4 °C.
Now the world is on course to warm this much in less than 200 years |
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Climate-Change?-All Countries will Suffer-Poorer ones most-Science must catch up with the Politics !
Updated: 08 Jan 2013
Doha summit launches climate damage aid
Rich countries have promised to help the poor cope with the inevitable loss and damage caused by climate
change, but much remains to be agreed
Editorial: "Another year wasted by climate negotiators"
THINGS took an interesting twist at the latest UN climate summit held in Doha, Qatar, over the past two weeks
when nations began talks over paying for the damage caused by climate change.
Delegates were split over a deal under which rich nations would pay when poor ones suffered the
consequences of global warming.
Developing countries demanded future compensation and developed ones - particularly the US - were
unsurprisingly reluctant to agree.
The talks ended with yet another agreement to agree, but many are calling this small victory a significant step forward.
The deal offers a distant promise of climate aid.
But first, science will have to catch up with politics.
All countries will suffer as a result of climate change, even if humanity slashes its emissions and stops
temperatures rising more than 2 °C above pre-industrial levels - the stated goal of the UN negotiations.
At current rates, a 3 or 4 °C rise is likely this century.
As a consequence, deserts will spread and lethal heatwaves will become more frequent.
Changes in rainfall will bring droughts, floods and storms, and rising seas will swamp low-lying areas, obliterating valuable territory.
So far, climate negotiations have taken a two-pronged approach to the problem.
On the one hand, they have sought to create incentives or imperatives to cut emissions.
On the other, they have established funds to help poor nations pay for "adaptation" measures, such as sea
walls and irrigation systems, to help fend off the unavoidable consequences.
That, according to some, leaves a third element missing.
Some consequences cannot easily be kept at bay.
Countries will suffer food shortages and more frequent and more severe storm surges.
On 28 November, the charities ActionAid, CARE International and WWF released a report arguing that rich
countries should compensate poor ones for such damages.
Doing so is a moral obligation and must be part of any treaty on climate change, says Niklas Höhne of renewable energy consultancy Ecofys in Utrecht, the Netherlands.
In Doha, a coalition including China, the Alliance of Small Island States and the G77 group of developing
countries proposed a scheme that would decide when countries had suffered climate damages, and
compensate them for their loss.
The idea gained momentum after typhoon Bopha struck the Philippines last week.
That country's negotiator Naderev Saño broke down in tears during a speech.
"As we sit here, every single hour, even as we vacillate and procrastinate here, we are suffering."
Developed nations balked at the prospect of being held accountable for the consequences of emissions.
Early versions of the text included the word "compensation" but they objected that it implied blame.
In the end, they agreed to create "arrangements [...] to address loss and damage associated with the impacts of climate change".
The deal poses a fundamental challenge to climate science, because it is difficult to work out whether trends
and events are caused by greenhouse gases or would have happened anyway.
"We can't say that an individual event was caused by climate change," says Nigel Arnell of the University of Reading, UK.
"What we can do is say that the chance of it happening was greater."
Computer models can be made to replicate the decades preceding a natural disaster with and without humanity's impact.
If the odds turn out to be different with and without greenhouse gas emissions, it suggests that emissions were at least partially to blame.
In this way, studies led by Myles Allen at the University of Oxford have shown that the 2003 European heatwave
and 2011 Texas drought were both made more likely by human emissions.
The costs of such extreme events is relatively straightforward to calculate.
But "attribution" science is in its infancy. Kevin Trenberth of the National Center for Atmospheric Research in
Boulder, Colorado, speculates that superstorm Sandy would not have flooded the New York subways without
climate change, but says it is not possible to prove that.
On the other hand, we can link slow processes like rising global temperatures or sea level rise to emissions.
For this reason, many people think we should focus first on compensating people harmed by these processes -
Pacific islands whose shorelines are gradually disappearing underwater for instance - and worry about extreme
weather events once the science has caught up.
The trouble is, unlike the damage caused by a hurricane, it is difficult to work out how much these slow processes cost.
According to Arnell, the problem may prove unworkable.
There may be another way, he says. Instead of deciding whether to compensate for individual events, climate
modellers could work out how much damages will increase regionally.
Funds would be released accordingly in a predictable flow.
It falls to delegates at next year's summit to consider these options.
But it is only an agreement in principle. No money was committed, and even a promise to do so was left out of
the final text. Edward Davey, the UK's secretary of state for energy and climate change, said it was "far too
early" to talk about committing money.
"We aren't saying there should be compensation," he said.
The slow progress so far on cutting emissions is making dangerous climate change almost certain, say researchers.
Studies have repeatedly shown that it is cheaper to pay to cut emissions now than it is to pay for the
consequences later, and the island states in particular hoped a deal would create an incentive for rich nations to
renew efforts to reduce emissions.
The Doha deal is "a positive step forward" on this path, says Harjeet Singh of ActionAid in New Delhi, India.
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Climate- Leaked IPCC report on Climate Change
Updated: 08 Jan 2013
What leaked IPCC report really says on climate change
A draft of a major report on climate change, due to be published next year, has been leaked online.
Climate sceptics immediately claimed it contains an admission that much of global warming is a result of the
sun's variability, not greenhouse gas emissions. In fact, the report says nothing of the sort.
It does, however, show that our understanding of the climate is shifting.
And while some future threats now seem less likely, others loom larger.
The report is the latest from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which releases detailed
assessments of climate science every few years. Its last major report came out in 2007, and the next is
scheduled to be published, section by section, from September 2013 onwards.
A draft version was leaked online by Alec Rawls, a US blogger who signed up to be an expert reviewer of the next report – something anyone can do.
Rawls highlights a paragraph on page 43 of chapter 7, which he claims undermines the report's main
conclusion – that human activity is the main driver of climate change.
The key sentence examines evidence of the link between the sun's activity and climate.
It concludes that the link is slightly stronger than previously thought.
This suggests positive feedbacks within the climate must make the sun's influence a little larger to fully explain
how it affects Earth's climate.
Rawls interprets this as an admission that the sun is actually a significant driver of climate change.
Climate scientists are lining up to debunk this claim.
"They're misunderstanding, either deliberately or otherwise, what that sentence is meant to say," says Joanna
Haigh of Imperial College London, who studies the effect of solar activity on the Earth.
The sun has little effect on global temperatures over human timescales, she says, although – perhaps
confusingly – it does have a relatively strong effect on some regions, particularly Europe (New Scientist, 25 September 2010, p 10).
Rawls's would-be revelations actually draw attention away from some much more interesting and surprising
conclusions in the draft report.
For one thing, the IPCC has changed its 2007 prediction on droughts.
Then, it concluded that a world beset by more intense droughts was "likely".
But the authors of the new report have taken heed of recent criticisms that the statistical measure of drought
favoured by climatologists is unreliable.
The draft quotes studies that show recent "decreasing trends in the duration, intensity and severity of drought globally".
Another common expectation of a warmer world also bites the dust: more frequent tropical cyclones. In 2007,
the IPCC said there had been a "likely" increase in tropical cyclones since 1970, which was "more likely than
not" due to global warming raising sea temperatures.
But the new report backtracks.
"The [previous] assessment needs to be somewhat revised," it says.
After a review of past cyclone counts, it concludes that "tropical cyclone data provides low confidence that any
reported long-term changes are robust".
There is evidence, however, that the average intensity of cyclones will rise in the years ahead.
Elsewhere, the report reassures us that the ocean circulation, and with it the Gulf Stream, is "unlikely" to
collapse in the coming centuries – a doomsday scenario that was "too early to assess" in 2007.
However, it is pessimistic about Arctic sea ice, which hit a record low in September.
The IPCC says the Arctic may see ice-free summers by 2100.
Even that is too rosy a picture for many climatologists, who expect ice-free summers before 2050.
Other conclusions are also more sobering.
The IPCC is predicting greater sea level rise than it did in 2007, as it now includes models of ice sheet movements.
And we now have a gloomier picture of the extent to which smogs and other human-made aerosols in the
atmosphere shade us from the worst of global warming.
This is still a big uncertainty in temperature forecasting.
The draft says their cooling effect is 40 per cent less than thought in 2007, suggesting this positive side effect of
air pollution has been overstated.
The report says it is "very likely" that the past three decades have all been warmer than any time in the past 800
years; that we could see almost 9 °C of warming by 2300; and that "a large fraction of climate change is largely
irreversible on human timescales".
The details of the picture may have changed, but it is still largely bleak.
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Climate- Sea Levels set to rise one Metre - Time to move to higher ground ?
Updated: 08 Jan 2013
Sea level rises will be much worse than we feared,
say leading scientists,
with tens of millions likely to be driven from their homes
• Sea level rise of more than a meter are a 'conceivable risk'
• New mathematical tool used to combine estimates of 26 leading experts
• Still considerable uncertainty over how much of ice sheets will melt
By Lewis Smith
| UPDATED: 12:31, 7 January 2013
Almost 200 million people could be forced to leave their homes by the end of the century because of sea level rises, researchers have warned.
Sea level rises are now feared to be significantly worse than forecast by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) just six years ago.
Melting of the polar ice sheets could be so severe that seas could rise a meter by 2100, a level that would be considered ‘catastrophic’.
The latest findings were made by a specially-selected team of 26 leading experts who concluded the risks were
‘potentially severe’ after being asked to assess what sea level rises can be expected.
It is most likely, they found, that there will be an increase of 29cm this century but they also concluded there is a
one in 20 chance that it could exceed 84cm with a ‘conceivable risk’ it will be greater than a meter.
Projections from each of the experts were combined using the mathematical technique expert elicitation (EE) to provide a pooled estimate.
Even with sea level increases limited to 29cm there would be serious consequences not just to low lying
countries such as the Maldives and Bangladesh but to some of the biggest cities in the world.
Many big cities, including London and New York, have river or coastal ports and even small rises significantly
boosts the risks of flooding from storms and tidal surges.
Flooding and the threat of inundation is likely, concluded the team, to force up to 187 million people to leave their homes.
The forecasts, published in the journal Nature Climate Change, are higher than the projections published by the
IPCC in 2007 when it was estimated that sea levels would rise by as little as 18cm and as much as 59cm.
Professor Jonathan Bamber, of the University of Bristol, said: ‘This is the first study of its kind on ice sheet
melting to use a formalized mathematical pooling of experts' opinions.
‘It demonstrates the value and potential of this approach for a wide range of similar problems in climate change
research, where past data and current numerical modelling have significant limitations when it comes to
forecasting future trends and patterns.’
The findings are in line with other studies which have shown sea level rises are likely to be much worse than
had been thought just a few years ago and that the rate of increase has speeded up in the last decade.
In the study the team of researchers recognised that there remains considerable uncertainty over the likely
extent and even the causes of melting in polar regions.
‘On the critical question of whether recent ice-sheet behaviour is due to variability in the ice sheet–climate
system or reflects a long-term trend, expert opinion is shown to be both very uncertain and undecided,’ they said.
‘We find an overwhelming lack of certainty about the crucial issue of the origin of recent accelerated mass loss
from the ice sheets.
‘The present expert elicitation findings suggest a smaller contribution from the ice sheets than implied by semi-
empirical models, but larger than proposed in the last IPCC report.’
Arctic and Antarctic ice sheet melting is one of several contributors to sea level rises and is likely to make up an
increasing proportion as the century progresses.
A recent study found that melting ice sheets now contribute to 30 per cent of sea level rises, compared to 10 per cent in the 1990s
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2258398/Climate-change-Sea-level-rises-worse-feared-say-leading-scientists-tens-millions-likely-driven-homes.html#ixzz2HKaA7pBp
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Climate- Brazil - Drought hits Corned Beef, Sugar, Coffee & 20 Million people
Updated: 07 Jan 2013
Worst drought in decades hits Brazil Northeast
Brazil's northeast is suffering its worst drought in decadesSun Jan 6, 2013 3:17PM GMT
We are experiencing the worst drought in 50 years, with consequences that could be compared to a violent earthquake."
Eduardo Salles, agriculture secretary in the northeastern state of Bahia
Brazil's Northeastern area is suffering its worst drought in decades, a condition which threatens hydro-power
supplies in one of the country's emerging agricultural frontiers.
"We are experiencing the worst drought in 50 years, with consequences that could be compared to a violent
earthquake," Eduardo Salles, the agriculture secretary in the northeastern state of Bahia, said in a statement.
Dry weather has hurt crops and animal carcasses lie abandoned in some areas that have seen almost no rain in the past two years.
The drought has also wiped off some 30 percent of sugar cane production in the region responsible for 10 percent of Brazil's cane output.
According to Brazil’s national electrical grid operator, known as the ONS (Operador Nacional do Sistema
Elétrico), water reservoirs in the Northeast has reached, in December 2012, 32 percent of its capacity, which is
below the 34 percent considered sufficient for guarantying electricity supplies.
The situation of the region’s dams has forced the state-controlled Petrobras to import nearly four times more
liquefied natural gas (LNG) in the first nine months of 2012 to support hydro-power generations.
The Northeast region also experienced its worst blackout in more than a decade in October 2012, which
knocked Bahia state's petrochemical industry offline.
A spokesperson at Brazil’s Ministry of Agriculture said the federal government has not calculated the financial
cost expected from the drought, but is trying to mitigate the economic impact by making additional lines of credit available to small farmers.
Bahia state officials, however, said the measures were not enough and asked for more federal resources to help
some 20 million people living in the semi-arid tropical region. |
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Climate-South South West to get another soaking
Updated: 21 Jan 2013
Six weeks of rain expected by New Year as deluge continues
Up to six weeks' worth of rain is expected before the New Year as the winter deluge shows no signs of letting up, forecasters warned yesterday.
Downpours will continue across the country over the next six days, bringing as much as seven inches of rain.
The south west will face the brunt of the bad weather but no part of the UK will be untouched.
It will make 2012 one of, if not the, wettest years on record and mean 2013 beginning in a similar fashion.
Heavy rain is expected, in particular, on New Year’s Eve, threatening to dampen the spirits of revellers.
Met Office forecaster Tony Burgess said: “The rain is going to continue in to the New Year and the outset of 2013
is going to be similar to what we have had in the last couple of weeks.”
Some parts of the UK endured 12 hours of rain yesterday and an Atlantic storm is expected to bring much more
rain this weekend.
Paul Knightley, forecaster for MeteoGroup, said: “The actual epicentre won't be anywhere near us, but it will
have quite a lot of effect on our weekend.
"There could be gales around the coastal areas of up to 50 to 55mph, maybe more in northern Scotland.
"It is fairly normal weather for this time of year, but given the ground is soaking wet it is going to cause a few issues.”
Rail and road networks were badly hit in the days leading up to Christmas, with a number of key routes struck by
weather-related delays and National Rail warned of further disruption in the south-west today.
The UK's average rainfall in 2012, excluding December, was 1,202mm – already placing it 13th in the list of
wettest years since records began in 1910.
The year 2000 remains the UK's wettest year, with an average rainfall of 1,337.3mm – a level that could be
surpassed once December’s figures are included.
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Climate-UK- A Very Soggy Christmas
Updated: 22 Dec 2012
Christmas getaway: millions face floods, delays and disruption
Rail services hit by heavy rain and signalling problems on busiest travelling day of festive period
People wait at London Paddington station, where trains to Heathrow were delayed by up to an hour. Photograph: Lefteris Pitarakis/AP
The millions of people embarking on the great Christmas getaway this weekend will have to contend with the
threat of more rain and flooding, which could bring further disruption, delays and misery to the roads and railways.
Friday is expected to be the busiest travelling day of the festive period, with airports, sea ports and the rail and
road networks braced to cope with a vast army of travellers.
The exodus from Heathrow was also at its greatest, with 123,000 passengers due to depart from the airport west of
London, which will handle a further 114,000 departures on Sunday and 88,000 on Christmas Eve.
But there are delays of up to an hour on First Great Western trains between London Paddington, Heathrow and Reading because of a signalling problem, and Heathrow Express and Heathrow Connect services are suspended.
Rail services to Gatwick airport are also disrupted by a major signalling problem at Preston Park near Brighton, and all routes through Blackfriars station in London are being delayed because of signalling problems there and at Elephant & Castle in south London.
In Cornwall, the First Great Western train company, which was badly hit by heavy rain earlier in the winter, was affected by floods again, with buses having to replace trains between Liskeard and Looe.
There is also disruption to some Scottish rail services after a landslip between Gleneagles and Perth at about 11am.
ScotRail said services could be delayed or revised at short notice as a result, with contingency plans in place.
Accidents on the M62 in West Yorkshire and on the M1 in South Yorkshire are adding to the overall problems, while traffic is also moving slowly on the M20 in Kent.
Among numerous flooded roads are streets in Bognor Regis in West Sussex, Meaford in Staffordshire and Sedgefield in County Durham.
Many Scottish roads are closed because of flooding, including highways in Fife and in Perth and Kinross.
The busiest roads this weekend are likely to be the M25, the M6 in the West Midlands, the M1 near Milton Keynes in Buckinghamshire, the M5 near Bristol and the M62 near Warrington in Cheshire.
The Highways Agency said roadworks were still under way on the M4 between junctions 10 and 11 at Reading, on the M25 at junctions five and six near Godstone in Surrey and on the M5 between junctions 19 and 21 near Bristol.
The AA, which predicts Friday and Saturday will be the busiest days for motorists, is warning drivers against using flooded roads, having attended more than 320 breakdowns on Thursday as vehicles got stuck in water.
The Environment Agency said nearly 400 flood alerts and warnings were in place, including 91 more serious flood warnings, focused on the south-west, east Anglia, the Midlands and the north-east.
The river Ouse in York was rising steadily, and levels were expected to peak late on Friday afternoon, while the nearby river Ure was also being monitored by Environment Agency staff. In Dorset the river Stour was rising and threatening farmland near Bournemouth.
Heavy rain swept England and Wales on Thursday, leaving residents on tenterhooks as river levels rose.
But while large swaths of the country were on alert, there was no repeat of last month's flooding that caused widespread devastation.
In Wallington, Hampshire, there was a severe flood warning as the river Wallington threatened to burst its banks.
Havant borough council evacuated 85 properties as a precaution, the Environment Agency said, and staff reinforced a flood wall that had shown signs of cracking. The wall held, and flood warnings for the area were withdrawn as the levels receded.
In Cornwall, there was a minor landslide near Gorran Haven that left a tonne of soil blocking the road.
In St Cleer, near Liskeard, one woman had to be rescued from her car after becoming trapped by floodwater, while a man became trapped after he drove over a humpback bridge crossing the Bude canal and found himself surrounded by fast-flowing and rising water, Cornwall council said.
Although some parts of the country may even enjoy a flash of sunshine on Friday, forecasters said up to 45mm – almost 2in – of rain could fall in the 24 hours from 6pm, and the Environment Agency was warning people to be braced for more threats of flooding.
Andy Ratcliffe, a forecaster with MeteoGroup, the weather division of the Press Association, said rain had been confined to the north-east and Scotland overnight, and that Friday would be largely dry.
He said: "Throughout today rain will ease in many places, but it will be persistent across eastern Scotland.
"It will be largely dry for most, with the risk of the odd shower. It will be dry until evening, when the next band of rain moves into the south-west.
"It will rain during the evening, before pushing north-east across most areas overnight, heavy and persistent, with large amounts of rainfall, especially in the south-west, which will see between 40mm and 45mm in the 24 hours to 6pm on Saturday.
"Through tomorrow the heavy pulse of rain will push north-eastwards, and it will be patchy across much of England and Wales.
"It is a really unsettled picture, and over the next few days there will continue to be a pretty wide risk of flooding."
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Climate - All Change
Updated: 18 Dec 2012
What leaked IPCC report really says on climate change
A draft of a major report on climate change, due to be published next year, has been leaked online.
Climate sceptics immediately claimed it contains an admission that much of global warming is a result of the sun's variability, not greenhouse gas emissions.
In fact, the report says nothing of the sort. It does, however, show that our understanding of the climate is shifting. And while some future threats now seem less likely, others loom larger.
The report is the latest from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which releases detailed assessments of climate science every few years.
Its last major report came out in 2007, and the next is scheduled to be published, section by section, from September 2013 onwards.
A draft version was leaked online by Alec Rawls, a US blogger who signed up to be an expert reviewer of the next report – something anyone can do.
Rawls highlights a paragraph on page 43 of chapter 7, which he claims undermines the report's main conclusion – that human activity is the main driver of climate change.
The key sentence examines evidence of the link between the sun's activity and climate. It concludes that the link is slightly stronger than previously thought.
This suggests positive feedbacks within the climate must make the sun's influence a little larger to fully explain how it affects Earth's climate.
Rawls interprets this as an admission that the sun is actually a significant driver of climate change.
Climate scientists are lining up to debunk this claim.
"They're misunderstanding, either deliberately or otherwise, what that sentence is meant to say," says Joanna Haigh of Imperial College London, who studies the effect of solar activity on the Earth.
The sun has little effect on global temperatures over human timescales, she says, although – perhaps confusingly – it does have a relatively strong effect on some regions, particularly Europe (New Scientist, 25 September 2010, p 10).
Rawls's would-be revelations actually draw attention away from some much more interesting and surprising conclusions in the draft report.
For one thing, the IPCC has changed its 2007 prediction on droughts.
Then, it concluded that a world beset by more intense droughts was "likely".
But the authors of the new report have taken heed of recent criticisms that the statistical measure of drought favoured by climatologists is unreliable.
The draft quotes studies that show recent "decreasing trends in the duration, intensity and severity of drought globally".
Another common expectation of a warmer world also bites the dust: more frequent tropical cyclones.
In 2007, the IPCC said there had been a "likely" increase in tropical cyclones since 1970, which was "more likely than not" due to global warming raising sea temperatures.
But the new report backtracks.
"The [previous] assessment needs to be somewhat revised," it says. After a review of past cyclone counts, it concludes that "tropical cyclone data provides low confidence that any reported long-term changes are robust".
There is evidence, however, that the average intensity of cyclones will rise in the years ahead.
Elsewhere, the report reassures us that the ocean circulation, and with it the Gulf Stream, is "unlikely" to collapse in the coming centuries – a doomsday scenario that was "too early to assess" in 2007.
However, it is pessimistic about Arctic sea ice, which hit a record low in September.
The IPCC says the Arctic may see ice-free summers by 2100. Even that is too rosy a picture for many climatologists, who expect ice-free summers before 2050.
Other conclusions are also more sobering.
The IPCC is predicting greater sea level rise than it did in 2007, as it now includes models of ice sheet movements.
And we now have a gloomier picture of the extent to which smogs and other human-made aerosols in the atmosphere shade us from the worst of global warming.
This is still a big uncertainty in temperature forecasting.
The draft says their cooling effect is 40 per cent less than thought in 2007, suggesting this positive side effect of air pollution has been overstated.
The report says it is "very likely" that the past three decades have all been warmer than any time in the past 800
years; that we could see almost 9 °C of warming by 2300; and that "a large fraction of climate change is largely irreversible on human timescales".
The details of the picture may have changed, but it is still largely bleak.
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Climate- How will the change affect you and me ?
Updated: 04 Dec 2012
Europe in 2050: a survivor's guide to climate change
Editorial: "How much will you pay for a green future?"
Europe is now in a race against the climate.
With little hope of a global deal to cut greenhouse gas emissions, temperature rises of 3 or 4 °C above preindustrial levels are likely before 2100.
That means countries have just decades to prepare.
Now a report by the European Environment Agency (EEA) outlines how the climate has already changed across the continent, and what will happen next.
For the first time, we have a reasonably clear picture.
From reshaping cities to defending coastlines, how will countries need to change to survive?
See map: "Areas likely to see the most dramatic changes by 2050"
Surviving heatwaves
Extremes of temperature are becoming more common, so all of Europe will have to deal with more frequent and severe heatwaves.
Parts of the south will see the biggest increase, because they are already hotter and are warming faster than the European average, along with the Arctic.
But northern Europe will also see more heatwaves. Extreme heat can kill people, particularly older people.
"We have an ageing population, which is more vulnerable," says Jacqueline McGlade of the EEA.
Many Mediterranean cities can cope with heatwaves.
They tend to have narrower, shady streets and not too much heat-radiating concrete.
"In the north, we're not equipped," says McGlade. The 2003 heatwave killed 35,000 people, many of them in France, and particularly Paris.
McGlade says northern cities must become more Mediterranean and change their architecture and layout, with more green spaces and less concrete and tarmac.
These changes will also help cities cope better with floods.
Exposing the soil helps floodwater drain away, whereas if cities are concreted over the water has nowhere to go.
Wading through the water
All of Europe will face more frequent floods - as the UK is experiencing now - but northern and western countries will be worst affected.
They will bear the brunt of extra storms coming from the Atlantic, which will be exacerbated by a steep rise in sea levels as Arctic ice melts.
Because areas like the North Sea are narrow, sea level will rise higher in the north than the south. Low-lying coastal areas will gradually disappear. Other coasts will be eroded faster.
Storm surges will be higher, and reach further inland.
Much of the Netherlands lies below sea level, and has long fought to keep out the water.
Parts of Europe will need to follow suit.
The country has retreated from some regions, evacuating communities and allowing wetlands to grow up.
Amphibious houses that float upwards when their area floods have been built.
Europe's coast is too vast to save but important ports like London and Copenhagen should bolster their sea defences.
keeping the lights on
Several power sources will struggle in a hot future, but others may fare better.
Mountainous areas such as the Alps and Scandinavia rely on hydroelectric dams.
These need a steady flow of water year round, but by 2050 "they could go full pelt in winter, but be unable to run in summer", McGlade says.
Extra winter power could be good, but inconsistency is not.
Nuclear power produces large amounts of reliable energy with low greenhouse-gas emissions.
But many plants are on the coast, for easy access to cooling seawater.
That makes them vulnerable to rising sea levels.
The disaster at the Fukushima Daiichi plant in Japan last year was a reminder of what can go wrong.
Sea defences were not high enough to hold back the tsunami and backup generators were knocked out.
If we want more nuclear power, plants must be better protected or use different cooling methods.
On the plus side, northern Europe could produce a lot of biofuel, thanks to longer growing seasons.
This will make it possible to grow more crops in places like Scandinavia.
Wheat may struggle in the rain-drenched soil, but biofuel crops like willow could flourish.
Feeding the masses
Crop production faces a welter of problems: water shortages in the south, floods and storms in the north, and frequent heatwaves everywhere.
Mediterranean countries will have to abandon many staples as it will be too hot to grow them economically. Farmers here will need to switch to drought-tolerant crops, such as sorghum and millet.
Poorer countries in the south-east, such as Bulgaria, Romania and Turkey, are at great risk, but if irrigated efficiently they could become the continent's breadbasket.
"These countries have huge potential to help feed Europe," McGlade says.
The UK could actually benefit, says Deborah Hemming of the UK Met Office in Exeter, as higher temperatures will mean a longer growing season, though this will come with more storms.
Fisheries will also be affected, as marine species move north to find cooler waters.
Staying afloat
Europe's economy has enough problems, as countries struggle to recover from the 2008 financial crisis.
There might be worse to come. "Climate change is the stalking horse of the financial crisis," says McGlade.
While rich countries can buy their way out to some extent, by investing in adaptations like sea defences, poorer countries cannot, she says.
"The imbalances we have today are going to deepen."
This unevenness is reflected in countries' preparedness so far.
Only 14 countries have submitted so-called National Adaptation Plans to the European Union, all of them northern and western.
Countries need to build up savings to cover the costs of future disasters like floods, says Christian Egelhofer of the Centre for European Policy Studies in Brussels.
But this is difficult when their economies are already stalled.
South-eastern countries like Bulgaria are the poorest and will not be able to adapt without help.
Small countries like Switzerland are also at risk, says Egelhofer, as one disaster could derail their economies.
"There is no way they could compensate for that," he says.
Mediterranean countries are vulnerable not only due to their financial troubles, but also because of their reliance on agriculture and tourism.
"One-third of global tourists go to the Mediterranean," he says.
"This is a very vulnerable system."
These countries need to find a new way to make a living.
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Climate-Scottish farmers (with their Livestock) head for the Ark. Harsh weather hits winter planting
Updated: 01 Dec 2012
Scottish farmers call for financial help as floods hit UK
1 December 2012 |
By Olivia Midgley
Farmers Guardian
ANOTHER week of harsh weather conditions has compounded what has been a ‘desperately difficult’ year for
hundreds of farmers and crofters, industry chiefs have said.
A wet weather survey by NFU Scotland revealed the extent of the gloomy arable picture, with one in 10 farmers
reporting they had 50 per cent or more of their cereals and maize still in the field.
NFUS president Nigel Miller said: “For those with crops, the relentless rain endured over many months have
hammered yields and quality, driven significant costs into harvesting, left many crops still standing in the fields
and winter seed in the shed unsown.
“Half the growers who responded to the survey have failed to get all their winter crops planted and will have to
carry that seed through to next autumn.”
Livestock farmers said their issues had mainly been caused by early housing of stock, variable forage quality,
higher feed costs and being forced to sell animals earlier than intended due to lack of feed.
Two-thirds of respondents have had to buy more bedding and fodder than they had budgeted for and three-
quarters of livestock keepers housed their stock earlier than normal.
“All-in-all, 2012 has been a desperately difficult and trying year for Scottish farmers,” added Mr Miller.
“This survey shows there is scope to provide short-term assistance to get over this difficult period but also the
opportunity longer term to leave Scottish food and farming better placed to cope with such variable weather
patterns.”
Last week Mr Miller attended an ‘urgent’ meeting with representatives from the banking sector after members
reported their businesses had been financially impacted by the wet weather.
Half of the 464 farmers who replied said they already needed extra cash for their businesses and a similar
number expected to have to take extra steps to improve their cash flow by spring.
It comes after the UK was once again battered by heavy rain, causing flooding chaos to homes and businesses
up and down the country.
Heavy rain in north Wales led the Environment Agency to issue two severe flood warnings – indicating danger to
life – on the River Elwy, while the Jones Peckover-run auction market in St Asaph was closed due to flooding.
Rural insurer NFU Mutual said it had taken more than 500 calls and estimated the damage at more than £20 million.
The dire situation has led the Scottish Environmental Protection Agency (SEPA) to allow some flexibility around
slurry spreading and storage.
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Climate- While the Changeists and the Warmists disagree, Antarctic Continental Ice increases
Updated: 30 Nov 2012
Antarctic Sea Ice Sets Another Record
Daniel Malavassi
Forbes
National Public Radio (NPR) published an article on its website last month claiming,
“Ten years ago, a piece of ice the size of Rhode Island disintegrated and melted in the waters off Antarctica.
Two other massive ice shelves along the Antarctic Peninsula had suffered similar fates a few years before.
The events became poster children for the effects of global warming. …
There’s no question that unusually warm air triggered the final demise of these huge chunks of ice.”
NPR failed to mention anywhere in its article that Antarctic sea ice has been growing since satellites first began
measuring the ice 33 years ago and the sea ice has been above the 33-year average throughout 2012.
Indeed, none of the mainstream media are covering this important story.
A Google News search of the terms Antarctic, sea ice and record turns up not a single article on the Antarctic sea ice record.
Amusingly, page after page of Google News results for Antarctic sea ice record show links to news articles
breathlessly spreading fear and warning of calamity because Arctic sea ice recently set a 33-year low.
Sea ice around one pole is shrinking while sea ice around another pole is growing.
This sure sounds like a global warming crisis to me.
Update: To provide more perspective on global warming and Antarctica, I would like to update this column with some additional information:
As meteorologist Anthony Watts explains, new data show ice mass is accumulating on the Antarctic continent as well as in the ocean surrounding Antarctica.
The new data contradict an assertion by global warming alarmists that the expanding Antarctic sea ice is coming at the expense of a decline in Antarctic continental ice.
The new data also add context to sensationalist media stories about declining ice in small portions of Antarctica, such as portions of West Antarctica and the Antarctic Peninsula (see here, for example).
The mainstream media frequently publish stories focusing on ice loss in these two areas, yet the media stories
rarely if ever mention that ice is accumulating over the larger area of East Antarctica and that the continent as a whole is gaining snow and ice mass.
Interestingly, a new NASA study finds Antarctica once supported vegetation similar to that of present-day Iceland.
“The southward movements of rain bands associated with a warmer climate in the high-latitude southern
hemisphere made the margins of Antarctica less like a polar desert, and more like present-day Iceland,” a co-
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Climate -We think we know where the Arctic ice melt is- all over Britain ?
Updated: 30 Nov 2012
Experts in stark warning over melting Arctic
Thursday 29 November 2012
by Morning Star Reporter
Scientists united to issue an urgent warning on the increasing speed of climate change today, revealing that an
area of Arctic sea ice bigger than the United States melted this year.
In a report released at UN climate talks in the Qatari capital of Doha, the World Meteorological Organisation said
that the Arctic ice melt was one of a myriad extreme and record-breaking weather events to hit the planet in 2012.
But it was the ice melt that dominated the annual climate report, with the UN concluding that ice cover had
reached "a new record low" in the area around the North Pole.
And it revealed that the loss from March to September was a massive 11.83 million square kilometers (4.57 million
square miles) - an area bigger than the US.
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change chairman Rajendra Pachauri urged delegates to heed the science and "quickly take action.
"When I had the privilege in 2007 of accepting the Nobel Peace Prize on behalf of the IPCC, in my speech I asked
the rhetorical question, 'Will those responsible for decisions in the field of climate change at the global level listen
to the voice of science and knowledge, which is now loud and clear,'' he said.
"I am not sure our voice is louder today but it is certainly clearer on the basis of the new knowledge."
University of Leeds scientists who carried out a "definitive" study of satellite data also found that ice sheets
covering Greenland and Antarctica are melting three times faster today than they were in the 1990s.
Since 1992, it has added 11.1 millimetres to global sea levels - contributing around a fifth of the total rise.
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Climate-"Coming in from the Cold"-But is Warming All Bad-Many Overcrowded Capitals would Disappear?
Updated: 21 Nov 2012
Grim Reports on Global Warming
Written by Our Correspondent
Monday, 19 November 2012
World Bank, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Seek to "wake up the world"
The astonishing damage wrought by Hurricane Sandy, which swept ashore on the East Coast of the United States on Sept. 29, is being punctuated by a series of reports that sow an apocalyptic vision if immediate and drastic action isn’t taken.
A new study by the world’s biggest climate modeling system, led by Dan Rowlands of Oxford University for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change forecasts that a two-degree Celsius increase in global temperatures by the turn of the century would have a catastrophic effect:, with water stress in arid and semi-arid countries, more floods in low-lying coastal areas, coastal erosion in small island states, and the elimination of up to 30 percent of animal and plant species across the globe.
Also, in a grim report released today, which Jim Yong Kim, President of the World Bank Group said is designed “to shock the world into action,” the World Bank is forecasting the inundation of coastal cities, increased risk of damage to food production leading to higher malnutrition, dry regions becoming dryer, wet regions becoming wetter, unprecedented heat waves, especially in the tropics, exacerbated water scarcity, more high-intensity tropical cyclones and irreversible loss of biodiversity including coral reef systems unless drastic action is taken to curb greenhouse gases and climate change.
The 119-page report, titled Turn Down the Heat: Why a 4°C Warmer World Must be Avoided, presents a frightening picture of a world “so different from the current one that it comes with high uncertainty and new risks that threaten our ability to anticipate and plan for future adaptation needs.”
The report scolds the international community for lack of action which “not only risks putting prosperity out of reach of millions of people in the developing world, it threatens to roll back decades of sustainable development.”
To those who deny that climate change is real and taking place, Kim warns that: “The science is unequivocal that humans are the cause of global warming, and major changes are already being observed: global mean warming is 0.8°C above pre industrial levels; oceans have warmed by 0.09°C since the 1950s and are acidifying; sea levels rose by about 20 cm since pre-industrial times and are now rising at 3.2 cm per decade; an exceptional number of extreme heat waves occurred in the last decade; major food crop growing areas are increasingly affected by drought.”
The report is focused on developing countries although it notes that developed countries are also vulnerable and at serious risk of major damage, such as the arrival of Hurricane Sandy, with damage that could cost as much as US$50 billion.
A series of recent extreme events worldwide continues to highlight the vulnerability of not only the developing world but even wealthy industrialized countries.
“No nation will be immune to the impacts of climate change,” the World Bank report notes “However, the distribution of impacts is likely to be inherently unequal and tilted against many of the world's poorest regions, which have the least economic, institutional, scientific, and technical capacity to cope and adapt.
The warming that will occur in the tropics is larger when compared to the historical range of temperature and extremes to which human and natural ecosystems have adapted and coped.
The projected emergence of unprecedented high-temperature extremes in the tropics will consequently lead to significantly larger impacts on agriculture and ecosystems.
Sea level rises in the tropics are likely to be 15 to 20 percent larger in the tropics than the global mean, meaning that some of the world’s most fertile lands – and cities including Bangkok, Jakarta and others are likely to be inundated and floods will become the norm.
Increases in tropical cyclone intensity are likely to be felt disproportionately in low-latitude regions, such as the megastorms that hit Myanmar and Bangladesh over the past three or four years, killing tens of thousands of people.
“A world in which warming reaches 4°C above preindustrial levels (hereafter referred to as a 4°C world), would be one of unprecedented heat waves, severe drought, and major floods in many regions, with serious impacts on human systems, ecosystems, and associated services,” the report continues.
While it says 4°C can still be avoided: numerous studies show that there are technically and economically feasible emissions pathways to hold warming likely below 2°C, the political will to take such measures is not there at this time.
While Hurricane Sandy undoubtedly played a role in President Barack Obama’s reelection, there is no indication that he plans to make climate change a major issue in his final four-year term.
China and India, both on breakneck economic development trajectories, do not appear to be strongly committed to holding back on increasing production of greenhouse gases.
“…the level of impacts that developing countries and the rest of the world experience will be a result of government, private sector, and civil society decisions and choices, including, unfortunately, inaction,” the World Bank study notes.
According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, “The unequivocal effects of greenhouse gas emission–induced change on the climate system…have continued to intensify, more or less unabated.”
The present concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere is higher than paleoclimatic and geologic evidence indicates has occurred at any time in the last 15 million years.
The global mean temperature has continued to increase and is now about 0.8°C above preindustrial levels.
The global oceans have continued to warm, with about 90 percent of the excess heat energy trapped by the increased greenhouse gas concentrations since 1955 stored in the oceans as heat.
The average increase in sea levels around the world over the 20th century has been about 15 to 20 centimeters. Over the last decade the average rate of sea-level rise has increased to about 3.2 cm per decade. Should this rate remain unchanged, this would mean over 30 cm of additional sea-level rise in the 21st century.
The Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets are losing ice faster, which could add substantially to sea-level rise, with the annual rate of ice lost more than tripling just since the 1993–2003 period “If ice sheet loss continues at these rates, without acceleration, the increase in global average sea level due to this source would be about 15 cm by the end of the 21st century.
A clear illustration of the Greenland ice sheet’s increasing vulnerability to warming is the rapid growth in melt area observed since the 1970s. As for Arctic sea ice, it reached a record minimum in September 2012, halving the area of ice covering the Arctic Ocean in summers over the last 30 years.
Extreme heat waves have increased both in frequency and intensity, with extreme precipitation and drought also increasing in intensity and/or frequency.
The Russian heat wave of 2010 is estimated to have cost 55,000 lives and 25 percent of annual crops, burned more than 1 million hectares, and delivered economic losses of about US$15 billion, 1 percent Russia’s gross domestic product.
These heat waves normally would have been expected only once every several hundred years, the report says. They have hit the United States, Europe and Russia in the last decade. Observations indicate a tenfold increase in the surface area of the planet experiencing extreme heat since the 1950s.
The 2012 drought that hit the US Middle West affected 80 percent of the country’s agricultural land, cutting badly into US exports.
One of the most serious consequences of rising carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere occurs when it dissolves in the ocean and results in acidification.
Evidence is already emerging of the adverse consequences of acidification for marine organisms and ecosystems, combined with the effects of warming, overfishing, and habitat destruction.
“A 4°C world will pose unprecedented challenges to humanity,” the report concludes. “It is clear that large regional as well as global scale damages and risks are very likely to occur well before this level of warming is reached. This report has attempted to identify the scope of these challenges driven by responses of the Earth system and various human and natural systems.
“Although no quantification of the full scale of human damage is yet possible, the picture that emerges challenges an often-implicit assumption that climate change will not significantly undermine economic growth.
It seems clear that climate change in a 4°C world could seriously undermine poverty alleviation in many regions.
“This is supported by past observations of the negative effects of climate change on economic growth in developing countries.
While developed countries have been and are projected to be adversely affected by impacts resulting from climate change, adaptive capacities in developing regions are weaker.
The burden of climate change in the future will very likely be borne differentially by those in regions already highly vulnerable to climate change and variability.
Given that it remains uncertain whether adaptation and further progress toward development goals will be possible at this level of climate change, the projected 4°C warming simply must not be allowed to occur—the heat must be turned down.
Only early, cooperative, international actions can make that happen.” |
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Climate- Sandy the worst hurricane for 108 years
Updated: 31 Oct 2012
Sandy shuts down New York's power grid and subway
15:27 30 October 2012
by Sally Adee and Jacob Aron
As of Tuesday morning, about 600,000 people on Long Island, New York, are without power.
The winds from hurricane Sandy peaked at 145 kph (90 mph), knocking down trees, which knocked down utility poles and power lines.
But that's not the main problem.
Short-circuiting and overheating caused transformers to explode all over Long Island.
Dick Knadle is an electrical engineering consultant in Dix Hills in central Long Island.
"As I was walking around last night," he says, "I could see flashes on the horizon every 60 seconds from the transformers exploding all over Long Island."
On Rockaway Peninsula on the shore of Queens, one such explosion started a fire that burned down more than 80 terrace homes. Thankfully, residents had been evacuated.
Knadle estimates that repairing damage to the electrical infrastructure will take weeks.
"The damage to power distribution systems just in my community is vast," he says.
In addition, he says that cellphone base stations in some neighbourhoods will soon be down.
Some cellular towers are equipped with backup generators, but others might have a backup battery that will only last for around six hours.
Subway inundated
Then there is the New York City subway. Its pumping system is designed to remove the 50,000 cubic metres of seawater that threaten to enter the tunnels daily because they are situated below sea level.
Continuous pumping keeps the tunnels from flooding, but the hurricane's extra dose of water will damage this system.
Metropolitan Transit Authority (MTA) chairman Joseph Lhota calls it the worst disaster in the subway's 108-year history.
The flooding itself is unlikely to cause structural problems, says Nick Buenfeld, a civil engineer at Imperial College London, as tunnels are designed to withstand the weight of the ground above.
"If you fill the tunnel with water you are pressing back against the external pressure," he says.
"You could argue structurally it is in a better state when it is full of water than when it is empty."
More problematic will be the effect on the electrical systems within the tunnels.
"The salt water damages pumping equipment," says Knadle.
"The damage will be compounded by the fact that there is no power to operate the pumping equipment right now."
Even with extra pumps, the MTA says it will take up to four days to empty the flooded tunnels.
After that, engineers will have to enter the tunnels and repair damaged electrical signals.
See Google's Crisis Map for more information about Sandy. |
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Climate-Change on the Western Front ? Keep producing more food or Starve
Updated: 24 Oct 2012
Empty Promise
by George Monbiot
Mon 22nd Oct 2012
I believe we might have made a mistake: a mistake whose consequences, if I am right, would be hard to overstate.
I think the forecasts for world food production could be entirely wrong.
Food prices are rising again, partly because of the damage done to crops in the northern hemisphere by ferocious weather. In the US, Russia and Ukraine, grain crops were clobbered by remarkable droughts.
In parts of northern Europe, such as the UK, they were were pummelled by endless rain.
Even so, this is not, as a report in the Guardian claimed last week, “one of the worst global harvests in years”(1). It’s one of the best.
World grain production last year was the highest on record; this year’s crop is just 2.6% smaller(2).
The problem is that, thanks to the combination of a rising population and the immoral diversion of so much grain into animal feed and biofuels(3), a new record must be set every year.
Though 2012’s is the third biggest global harvest in history (after 2011 and 2008)(4), this is also a year of food deficit, in which we will consume some 28 million tonnes more grain than farmers produced(5). If 2013’s harvest does not establish a new world record, the poor are in serious trouble.
So the question of how climate change might alter food production could not be more significant. It is also extremely hard to resolve, and relies on such daunting instruments as “multinomial endogenous switching regression models”(6).
The problem is that there are so many factors involved.
Will extra rainfall be cancelled out by extra evaporation? Will the fertilising effect of carbon dioxide be more powerful than the heat damage it causes? To what extent will farmers be able to adapt? Will new varieties of crops keep up with the changing weather?
But, to put it very broadly, the consensus is that climate change will hurt farmers in the tropics and help farmers in temperate countries.
A famous paper published in 2005 concluded that if we follow the most extreme trajectory for greenhouse gas production (the one we happen to be on at the moment), global warming would raise harvests in the rich nations by 3% by the 2080s, and reduce them in the poor nations by 7%(7).
This gives an overall reduction in the world’s food supply (by comparison to what would have happened without manmade climate change) of 5%.
Papers published since then support this conclusion: they foresee hard times for farmers in Africa and South Asia(8,9,10), but a bonanza for farmers in the colder parts of the world(11,12,13), whose yields will rise just as developing countries become less able to feed themselves.
Climate change is likely to be devastating for many of the world’s poor.
If farmers in developing countries can’t compete, both their income and their food security will decline, and the number of permanently malnourished people could rise.
The nations in which they live, much of whose growth was supposed to have come from food production, will have to import more of their food from abroad.
But in terms of gross commodity flows the models do not predict an insuperable problem.
So here’s where the issue arises.
The models used by most of these papers forecast the effects of changes in averaged conditions.
They take no account of extreme weather events(14,15).
Fair enough: they’re complicated enough already.
But what if changes in the size of the global harvest are determined less by average conditions than by the extremes?
This is what happened in 2012.
This is what seems likely to happen in subsequent years.
Here’s why.
A paper this year by the world’s leading climate scientist James Hansen shows that the frequency of extremely hot events (such as the droughts which hammered the US and Russia) has risen by a factor of around 50 by comparison to the decades before 1980(16).
Forty years ago, extreme summer heat typically affected between 0.1 and 0.2% of the globe.
Today it scorches some 10%.
“We can project with a high degree of confidence,” the paper warns, “that the area covered by extremely hot anomalies will continue to increase during the next few decades and even greater extremes will occur.”
Yet these extremes do not feature in the standard models predicting changes in crop production.
If the mechanism proposed by another paper is correct, it is not just extremes of heat that are likely to rise(17). I’ve explained this before, but I think it’s worth repeating.
The jet stream is a current of air travelling eastwards around the upper northern hemisphere.
It separates the cold wet weather to the north from the warmer, drier weather to the south.
Wobbling along this ribbon are huge meanders called Rossby waves.
As the Arctic heats up, the meanders slow down and become steeper.
The weather gets stuck.
Stuck weather is another way of saying extreme weather.
If the jet stream is jammed to the north of where you are, the weather stays hot and dry, and the temperature builds up – and up.
If it’s lodged to the south of you, the rain keeps falling, the ground becomes saturated and the rivers burst their banks.
This summer the UK and the US seem to have found themselves on opposite sides of stuck meanders, and harvests in both countries were savaged by opposing extremes of weather.
This is where we stand with just 0.8 degrees of global warming and a 30% loss of summer sea ice.
Picture a world with 2, 4 or 6 degrees of warming and a pole without ice, and you get some idea of what could be coming.
Farmers in the rich nations can adapt to a change in averaged conditions. It is hard to see how they can adapt to extreme events, especially if those events are different every year.
Last winter, for example, I spent days drought-proofing my apple trees, as the previous spring had been so dry that – a few weeks after pollination – most of the fruit shrivelled up and died.
This spring was so wet that the pollinators scarcely emerged at all: it was the unfertilised blossom that withered and died.
I thanked my stars that I don’t make my living this way.
Perhaps there is no normal any more.
Perhaps the smooth average warming trends the climate models predict – simultaneously terrifying and oddly reassuring – mask wild extremes for which no farmer can plan and to which no farmer can respond.
Where does that leave a world which must either keep raising production or starve?
www.monbiot.com
References:
1. http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2012/oct/10/un-rising-food-costs-weather
2. http://www.fao.org/news/story/en/item/161602/icode/
3. http://www.monbiot.com/2007/11/06/an-agricultural-crime-against-humanity/
4. http://www.fao.org/news/story/en/item/161602/icode/
5. http://www.fao.org/news/story/en/item/161602/icode/
6. http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2030220
7. Martin Parry, Cynthia Rosenzweig and Matthew Livermore, 2005. Climate change, global food supply and risk of hunger. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society – B, vol 360, pp 2125–2138. doi:10.1098/rstb.2005.1751 http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1569580/
8. Eg Jerry Knox, Tim Hess, Andre Daccache and Tim Wheeler, 2012. Climate change impacts on crop productivity in Africa and South Asia. Environmental Research Letters 7. 034032. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/7/3/034032
9. Christoph Müller et al, 2012. Climate change risks for African agriculture. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Early Edition. www.pnas.org/cgi/doi/10.1073/pnas.1015078108
10. P. Krishnan et al, 2011. High temperature effects on rice growth, yield, and grain quality. Advances in Agronomy. Vol 111, pp87-205.
11. Jan Beck, 2012. Predicting climate change effects on agriculture from ecological niche modeling: who profits, who loses? Climatic Change – published online.
doi:10.1007/s10584-012-0481-x http://www.springerlink.com/content/p46301h961544077/
12. Tom Osborne, Gillian Rose and Tim Wheeler, 2012 (in press). Variation in the global-scale impacts of climate change on crop productivity due to climate model uncertainty and adaptation. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2012.07.006
13. Kyungsuk Cho et al, 2012. Winter wheat yields in the UK: uncertainties in
climate and management impacts. Climate Research. Vol. 54, pp49–68.
doi: 10.3354/cr01085
14. Eg Martin Parry, Cynthia Rosenzweig and Matthew Livermore, 2005 (as above) write: “The crop growth models embody a number of simplifications. For example, weeds, diseases and insect pests are assumed to be controlled, there are no problem soil conditions (e.g. high salinity or acidity) and there are no extreme weather events such as heavy storms.”
15. and Kyungsuk Cho et al, 2012 (as above) state: “We do not include effects caused
by negative soil conditions such as salinity, acidity and compaction, extreme weather events or pests and diseases, all of which are likely to be directly or indirectly affected by climate change and resulting changes in management practices.”
16. James Hansen, Makiko Satoa, Reto Ruedy, 2012. Perception of climate change. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, published online. http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2012/07/30/1205276109.full.pdf+html?with-ds=yes
17. Jennifer A. Francis and Stephen J. Vavrus, 2012. Evidence linking Arctic amplification to extreme weather in mid-latitudes. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 39, L06801, doi:10.1029/2012GL051000.
This article was first published in the Guardian 16 October 2012.
For more articles by George Monbiot visit http://www.monbiot.com |
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Climate- The Artic ?- What Ice ? -As Sea levels rise
Updated: 16 Oct 2012
Arctic ice low heralds end of 3-million-year cover
Updated 10:49 31 August 2012
by Catherine Brahic
New Scientist
Editorial: "Arctic melt, smash and grab ahead"
IT IS smaller, patchier and thinner than ever - and rotten in parts.
The extent of the Arctic ice cap has hit a record low, and the consequences of what is arguably the greatest environmental change in human history will extend far beyond the North Pole.
For at least 3 million years, and most likely 13 million, says Louis Fortier of the University of Laval in Quebec City, Canada, the Arctic Ocean has been covered by a thick, floating ice cap, the breadth of which fluctuates with the seasons and currents.
Each summer, the cap shrinks to an annual minimum in mid-September before growing out again, fuelled by plummeting winter temperatures and long nights.
Climate change has had more of an impact here than anywhere else on Earth.
Air temperatures are rising twice as fast as the global average, and models predict ... |
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Climate UK-Worst Storms for 30 years
Updated: 27 Sep 2012
Looters strike as thousands are left homeless
after worst storm for 30 years
MARK BRANAGAN
Thursday 27 September 2012
Independent
Thousands of homes were still under threat of flooding last night after days of heavy rain caused disruption across the North – with outbreaks of looting in some areas.
The most intense September storm for 30 years eased yesterday but some communities were warned they were still at risk from high river levels.
Around 50 flood warnings remained in place last night.
Residents of a block of townhouses in Newburn, Newcastle, were among those facing a second night out of their homes after floodwater gouged out the ground beneath the building, which remains cordoned off amid safety concerns.
Looters broke into the nearby KB Cycles shop in the town and stole bikes worth tens of thousands of pounds from the shop while roads were blocked by water and silt.
Police condemned the "despicable" behaviour and laid on extra patrols.
But elsewhere the crisis brought out the better side of human nature.
In the Yorkshire Dales one farmer spared his neighbours from being swamped.
Jonathan Bradbrook was sitting in his farm house on the outskirts of Ravensworth, near Richmond, on Monday night when he spotted a torrent coming down the lane.
He said: "I said: 'There is only one thing I can do – get the water off the road."
The 46-year old father-of-one ran out to the tractor shed and, knowing disaster was only minutes away, used his JCB to start attacking the hedge with a mechanical shovel.
He levelled a 10ft wide section and watched as the water poured through the gap and created a lake behind his farm house.
Turning the JCB around, he drove back into the village and scooped out another channel to divert water from the road into nearby fields.
A few miles away in Gilling West 2,000 villagers remained divided by a 100m long lake lapping along the High Street. Dave Walker, 28, and partner Polly Boyce, 24, were awoken at midnight by the fire brigade pumping out the house next door.
He said: "When I stepped in the lounge I could feel my feet squelching on the carpet.
Then the water started coming up through the floors."
Ms Boyce added: "It was panic stations then be managed to get everything we could upstairs." By morning they were homeless.
The Association of British Insurers said the storms left 400 homes and businesses flooded, and underlined the risk to up to 2.4 million homes, many of which mortgage providers may be increasingly reluctant to lend on.
More flooding could be on the cards by the River Ouse in Yorkshire and its tributaries.
Towns under threat include Ripon, Borough Bridge and Tadcaster, where the bridge which carries the A659 over the River Wharfe was closed for safety checks.
But in other hotspots such as Morpeth, Northumberland, conditions were improving and water levels were falling.
THE FORECAST
Today will be drier than it has been for most areas, but there will be scattered showers in the afternoon with more rain expected overnight.
Rain will first affect central and south-eastern areas, gradually moving into the North-west throughout the day.
Tomorrow, showers are forecast for the North and West, shifting south-easterly through the day.
The heaviest rain will hit western Scotland. On Saturday northern and western parts will see scattered showers, but it will be largely dry with sunny spells.
Rain and wind is predicted for Sunday |
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Climate- First the Nasty Party now the Nasty Weather
Updated: 22 Sep 2012
Gale force winds and downpours to batter Britain
The glorious autumnal weather is to be blown away by “severe” conditions and potential flooding over coming days, forecasters have warned.
The colder weather will turn wet and windy towards the end of the weekend
6:00PM BST 21 Sep 2012
Households across swathes of the country were placed on high alert from tomorrow night as gale force winds and torrential showers threaten to bring about widespread damage.
Forecasters warned the storm sweeping across the country this weekend would bring “powerful” gusts of more than 60mph and up to two inches of rain in a matter of hours.
Authorities warned of localised flooding and damage caused by falling tree branches and roofs being blown off while motorists were warned of pending travel chaos, particularly for southern, central and eastern parts of England.
Tomorrow is expected to be the last fine day, ahead of a week of “unsettled” conditions brought about by a low pressure system.
The Met Office issued yellow “severe” weather warnings for London, the Home Counties, southern coasts and the south west of England and Wales from early Sunday while northern areas would experience clear skies and sunshine.
But tonight the warnings for "heavy and persistent rain" were extended for almost the entire country the following day, as the stormy conditions sweep north, heralding the end of several weeks of fine conditions.
The Environment Agency issued a “flood alert” for the south-west and warned of potential river flooding.
The threat of wild weather forced organisers to cancel a popular wildlife walk in Dorset. Only parts of Scotland, Northern Ireland and northern parts of Wales are expected to escape the wintry conditions.
The Met Office also warned of the first frosts of autumn would be felt from tonight as clear skies meant overnight temperatures struggle to stay above freezing.
Dan Williams, a Met Office spokesman, warned of days of markedly wet and windy conditions for the coming days.
He warned of surface flooding and “travel disruption” while households were warned to batten down and protect against falling branches and tiled roofs being ripped off.
“The important part of the story is that from Saturday night a low pressure system coming up from the south will bring about wet and windy weather for many parts of the UK,” he said.
“We are expecting powerful wind gusts of up to 60mph and heavy rain that could bring up to 50mm [two inches] of rain across a large area of England.
“It is really going to give us some pretty unsettled weather for much of the week.” |
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Climate- Change -The Effect on Food Production Stills Limits our Population Growth
Updated: 18 Sep 2012
Climate change determined humanity's global conquest
20:00 17 September 2012
by Michael Marshall
New Scientist
Humans may have conquered the world, but not without a big helping hand from climate change.
A major study of the last 120,000 years of history reminds us that, while we are adaptable, our species is ultimately at the mercy of the climate.
Homo sapiens evolved in Africa around 200,000 years ago, but only left the continent about 70,000 years ago.
After that our species rapidly went global, colonising first Europe and Asia, and then Australasia and the Americas.
But why did early humans linger so long in Africa, and what spurred them to finally move?
Several theories have been proposed, but according to a large effort to reconstruct the last 120,000 years of human history – including the climate we lived in and the vegetation we fed on – the current population spread around the planet would not be as it is without key changes in the climate.
Food for forage
Geneticist Andrea Manica at the University of Cambridge, UK, and his colleagues teamed up with climate modellers, who simulated changes in temperature and rainfall across the planet over the last 120,000 years.
The climate modelling allowed the researchers to calculate changes in the vegetation in different regions, which gave an estimate of the amount of food available there.
The team then used this food supply data to drive a model of human population and migration.
The model accurately reproduced the pattern and timings of human expansion out of Africa and across the continents, so far as it is known from the archaeological record – suggesting that climate and food supply were key elements needed to explain how humans spread worldwide.
Roadblocks
The model also revealed that climate changes probably had a key role in lifting four major roadblocks to humanity's global takeover.
The first and most important roadblock was the Arabian peninsula, an impassable desert that trapped humans in Africa for tens of thousands of years.
Then, 70,000 years ago it began receiving more rain.
The coastal areas became more fertile, allowing humans out of Africa.
"Climate is a really good explanation for why they didn't make it out earlier," says Manica.
There are several conceivable routes out of Africa, but Manica's model suggests that the Arabian coast was the most important exit route.
After that, H. Sapiens clustered in what is now Iraq before heading off in different directions.
Water trap
One group expanded east into Asia, spreading south-east into Indonesia.
There, they hit a second roadblock: high sea levels meant that wide stretches of open water separated the many islands.
Manica assumed that crossings of 100 kilometres were a bridge too far, leaving pioneers no way to reach Australia.
That meant people could only go further once sea levels fell, exposing more patches of low-lying land and making for shorter sea journeys.
The waters fell 60,000 years ago and then again 15,000 years later, as successive glaciations trapped more of the world's water at the poles.
The combined climate and vegetation model suggests H. sapiens probably only reached south-east Asia 45,000 to 50,000 years ago, which would rule out a crossing when sea levels fell for the first time.
Getting colder…
Further north, Manica's model suggests that humans reached Siberia by 30,000 years ago, where they were met by a vast ice sheet which prevented them from entering North America – the third roadblock.
Not until 15,000 years ago did it shrink, allowing them into the Americas.
Once in, they spread rapidly.
Back in Europe and Asia, populations faced one last roadblock: their local ice sheets.
During warm periods humans went north into Scandinavia and northern Asia, but they were forced south when the ice advanced again.
To see just how sensitive our species has been to changes in climate over the ages, Manica ran the model several times, varying the strength of climate's effect on populations.
In parallel, he also modelled the history of human genetic variation, and compared that with real data on the genetic makeup of modern populations.
Strikingly, he was only able to reproduce the known timings of migrations, and the real-world genetic data, if the human populations in his model were highly sensitive to the climate.
Neanderthal brakes
It's the first time anyone has been able to explore climate's power to facilitate human expansion, says Rick Potts of the Smithsonian National Museum of Natural History in Washington DC.
"The study fills in many of the links that have only been assumed or guessed at," he says.
The model hits trouble in Europe, though.
It predicts that humans arrived 55,000 years ago – 10,000 years before the oldest archaeological evidence, from southern Italy. Manica says competition with Neanderthals could have slowed the modern humans down, or there might be older remains still to be discovered. "Or we could be wrong," he admits.
"There are inconsistencies," says John Stewart of Bournemouth University in the UK. "But the results are still remarkably good."
Climate and collapse
Stewart has proposed that earlier bouts of climate change helped the many hominin species to evolve, by forcing them into isolated refuges where they evolved separately (Science, doi.org/jcz). If that's correct, climate has been determining our fate for even longer than Manica's model suggests.
Manica argues that modern civilisation is still highly dependent on the climate.
Many societies have declined or collapsed when faced with climate change, for example.
While agriculture produces more food than hunting and gathering, and so supports more people, ultimately climate's effect on food production still limits our population.
"We are very much governed by climate," he says.
Journal reference: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1209494109 |
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Monthly Weather Forecast
Updated: 08 Sep 2012
Monthly Weather Outlook
Summary
Autumn beckons
After enduring the wettest summer in a hundred years September begins with plenty of dry weather, particularly for the southern half of the United Kingdom, but gets more changeable as the month goes on.
Monday 3 September—Sunday 9 September
Some warm sunshine, especially in the south
To start the week, Monday will deliver some pleasant warmth to most parts of the United Kingdom with temperatures as high as 26C in east and southeast England.
It's not all plain sailing though because remnants of Tropical Storm Kirk, currently out in the Atlantic, will get absorbed into an area of low pressure that will bring rain to northern Scotland later on Monday with strengthening winds that will peak on Tuesday with gusts of 60mph or so for Shetland.
On Tuesday a trailing cold front from that area of low pressure will bring a weakening band of cloud and patchy rain southwards across England and Wales to give a cloudier, slightly cooler and for some damper day.
From Wednesday onwards high pressure re-establishes itself across England and Wales offering fine, warm days with sunny spells and misty nights.
At the same time, Atlantic weather fronts will threaten northern and western Scotland and the north of Northern
Ireland with occasional rain and windier conditions at times too.
Monday 10 September—Sunday 16 September
Typical early autumn weather
With low pressure sitting to the north of the United Kingdom and high pressure to the south, there is a predominantly westerly flow across the country and that means typically changeable weather for early autumn.
We should expect some rain at times but also drier spells and with a westerly flow it may well be that eastern parts of Scotland and England receive relatively less rainfall than the west.
Temperatures look set to remain close to average in all areas both by day and night.
Monday 17 September—Sunday 30 September
Cooler and wetter
High pressure is likely to become positioned to the west of the United Kingdom for a time, allowing a colder northerly flow to develop.
As a result the weather will probably be most unsettled towards the north and east with rain at times.
It will also turn cooler with temperatures dropping below average for many parts although south Wales and southern England may hang on to something close to what's typical for late September.
Next week
The start of October 2011 was a scorcher but surely it can't happen two years running....
Monthly forecasting
The weather beyond about a week ahead stretches even the most experienced weather forecaster.
Complex numerical weather forecast models from the Met Office and the European Centre for Medium-Range
Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) are run many times for the month (and season) ahead to build up a picture of the likelihood of different weather types affecting the UK.
Next update at 10:00, Monday 10 September |
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Climate- Changes are not being addressed by Governments and the world's poor are suffering
Updated: 05 Sep 2012
Climate threat to world's poor is underestimated - Oxfam
Reuters - UK Focus – 2 hours 17 minutes ago
By Nigel Hunt
LONDON, Sept 5 (Reuters) - Climate change may pose a much more serious threat to the world's poor than existing research has suggested because of spikes in food prices as extreme weather becomes more common, Oxfam said on Wednesday.
More frequent extreme weather events will create shortages, destabilise markets and precipitate price spikes on top of projected structural price rises of about 100 percent for staples such as maize over the next 20 years, the charity said in a report.
Droughts in the U.S. Midwest and Russia this year have helped to propel prices for maize and soybeans to record highs and United Nations food agencies this week said that world leaders must take swift action to ensure that food-price shocks do not turn into a catastrophe that could hurt tens of millions of people.
The UN's Food and Agriculture Organization has estimated that the 2007/08 price spike contributed to an 8 percent rise in the number of undernourished people in Africa.
"For vulnerable people, sudden and extreme price hikes can be more devastating than gradual long-term rises to which they may have more chance of adjusting," Oxfam said in a report.
"Though the price spike and coping strategies may be short-term, the impacts are often felt across generations. An increase in malnutrition can cause stunting and reduce developmental potential in young children."
Oxfam added that existing research, which considers the gradual effects of climate change but not extreme weather, significantly underestimates the implications of changing weather patterns.
The charity insisted there is an "urgent need for a full stress test of our fragile and dysfunctional food system" and called for a reversal of decades of underinvestment in small-scale sustainable and resilient agriculture, as well as urgent action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
"Climate change could lead to a permanent increase in yield variability and excessive food price volatility, however, which could leave many poor countries with potentially insuperable food security challenges," Oxfam said. |
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Climate- Are we heading for a global food crisis ?
Updated: 26 Jul 2012
Are we heading for a global food crisis?
As drought takes its toll on US crops, we ask if it is time to reassess the global food market.
Inside Story Americas
Last Modified: 25 Jul 2012 14:49
For weeks the US has been suffering its most extensive drought in half a century.
And meteorologists expect the severe conditions to continue.
"The monopolies have created dependency and they control the global [food] market … and you have tremendous market power concentrated into just a very few hands … they will hoard, they'll hold back grain, and they buy low and sell high."
- Eric Holt-Gimenez, the executive director of FoodFirst
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released an animation showing how the drought has expanded since the beginning of this year, particularly affecting the US heartland, known as the breadbasket of the country and the world.
The US dominates the global corn market but the US Department of Agriculture has predicted a sharp drop in corn exports, with prices for corn and soybeans already hitting record highs.
At least 87 per cent of all US corn and soybean crops are grown in drought-stricken regions.
Corn is what is called a mega-crop used in the production of everything from meat to cereal to sugary drinks and fuel.
As a result, rising prices have the potential to lead to another global food crisis.
"What a globalised food system allows is to source food from many different places ….
An open, globalised trading system provides a lot of additional security rather than relying on your internal market."
- Charlotte Hebebrand from the International Food and Agricultural Trade Policy Council
The 2008 food crisis was triggered by a sharp rise in the cost of wheat and rice.
That sparked protests in parts of Africa, the Middle East and Latin America.
It will be months before the impact of the US drought is fully known but farmers are already bracing for the worst.
On this episode of Inside Story Americas we ask:
Will the US drought lead to another global food crisis?
And what does it tell us about the current structure of the world food system?
Joining the discussion with presenter Shihab Rattansi are guests: Francesco Femia, the founding director of the Center for Climate and Security; Charlotte Hebebrand, the chief executive of the International Food and Agricultural Trade Policy Council; and Eric Holt-Gimenez, the executive director of FoodFirst, also known as the Institute for Food and Development Policy.
"What we're likely to see over the next 10 to 20 years is more extreme weather of this kind. It's difficult to say that this particular drought [in the US] was due to climate change .... [But] we need to be very conscious of some shocks coming out of climatic changes."
Francesco Femia from the Center for Climate and Security
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
THE IMPACT OF THE US DROUGHT:
•About 60 per cent of continental US is experiencing drought conditions
•The US is the world's largest corn producer, and provides up to 60 per cent of the world's food aid
•The price of corn has increased by 34 per cent in the last month
•The US government says nearly 40 per cent of the corn crop is in poor condition
•Most US farmers have crop insurance in case of losses
FOOD SECURE NATIONS:
•The US is ranked as the most food-secure nation in the world, with an average of 14 per cent of household expenditure being spent on food. Second is Denmark, followed by Norway
•The most food-secure nations benefit from ample resources, high incomes and subsidies for farmers
•The least food-secure nations are in sub-Saharan Africa, with the DR Congo scoring most poorly with 70 per cent of household income there spent on food despite the country's huge agricultural potential
•Chad and Burundi suffer from similar circumstances
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Source: Al Jazeera |
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Climate- The London Weather for the Olympics- Take a raincoat !
Updated: 25 Jul 2012
Forecast for 25th July
Mostly Sunny
High 30°C
Low 15°C
Chance of Precip.
0%
26 July -Thursday
Forecast
Sunny
High 28°C
Low 14°C
Chance of Precip.
0%
27 July -Friday - Opening Ceremony
Forecast
Isolated T-Storms
High 26°C
Low 13°C
Chance of Precip.
40 %
28 July-Saturday
Forecast
Partly Cloudy
High 19°C
Low 12°C
Chance of Precip.
10 %
29 July -Sunday
Forecast
Scattered T-Storms
High 17°C
Low 11°C
Chance of Precip.
30 %
30 July
Forecast
Few Showers
High 17°C
Low 11°C
Chance of Precip.
30 %
Forecast for Health
31 July
Forecast
Scattered Showers
High 19°C
Low 13°C
Chance of Precip.
30 %
01 August
Forecast
Showers
High 19°C
Low 14°C
Chance of Precip.
60 %
Weekend Travel?
02 August
Forecast
Showers
High 19°C
Low 14°C
Chance of Precip.
60 %
03 August
Forecast
Showers
High 19°C
Low 14°C
Chance of Precip.
60 %
|
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Climate -US Farms hit by drought- Grocery prices to soar-UK will feel it too!
Updated: 21 Jul 2012
Grocery prices soar as drought intensifies
by: John Wojcik
July 16 2012
CHICAGO - Packages containing four small stalks of corn were selling for over $2.00 apiece last Saturday at a South Side Aldi's supermarket. And Aldi's is the place you go when you want to get things cheap.
This time last year there were ten or twelve stalks going for a dollar and even less at Aldi's and at grocery stores all over town.
And just a few months ago, the U.S. Department of Agriculture was projecting a record corn crop of 14.7 billion bushels.
Farmers sowed more acres than ever this year and the summer-like temperatures in March spurred many to plant corn early. But that was then.
One hundred miles south of the Aldi's supermarket last Saturday, as far as you could see in the cornfields, the plants were wilting under a blazing sun.
A little further south the farmers were getting ready to plow under countless tons of already-dead stalks.
The sizzling temperatures combined with a record Midwest drought have done their damage.
Coming next is the premature mass slaughtering of animals, who will otherwise starve for lack of feed.
And the people, economists say, will suffer higher supermarket prices for everything from corn, vegetables and prepared foods to milk and meat.
How high those prices will soar depends on how long the temperatures stay above normal and how long we continue to have no rain.
The only "silver lining" is that for several weeks, beginning soon, there will be a temporary drop in the prices of items most people put on their grills.
The mass premature slaughtering of animals sold for meat, particularly cattle and pigs, will make for cheaper steaks, sausage and ribs, says Shawn Hackett of the agricultural commodities firm Hackett Financial Advisors, in Bouton Beach, Fla.
He told MSNBC's Bottomline this week that everything else, from milk to salad dressings, will cost more almost immediately and that in the long term the good meat deals will disappear as demand outstrips supply.
Even before the drought, however, consumers have been reeling under food price inflation, which, according to government figures, was 4.8 percent last year and was originally predicted to be around two percent this year.
"The drought means above normal food prices in 2012 going into 2013," said Corinne Alexander, an agricultural economist at Purdue University.
As some of the prices were already going up at Aldi's last week and as the crops in southern Illinois were being plowed under the U.S.D.A. declared more than a thousand counties in 26 states to be natural disaster areas, the largest such designation ever made in history.
"It's like trying to farm in hell," said Fred Below, a crop biologist at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign.
The heat waves, the droughts, and the rising prices in grocery stores is giving millions yet another chance to grasp the importance of climate change as something that goes beyond melting ice on the north pole and rising sea levels along the coasts.
In Indiana, just south of here, temperatures rose last week into the triple digits for 11 days, reaching as high at 107 degrees.
In Colorado, wildfires raged for more than three weeks. Colorado TV stations described the situation as one in which the state, itself, seemed to be on fire.
While this was going on, a "derecho," a line of thunderstorms, developed over Chicago's western suburbs. It crossed the city and then turned into a "super derecho" that travelled all the way to the East Coast killing at least 13 and leaving many millions without power.
As the corn burns in the fields and as the farmers and millions of others pray for rain the country also has an opportunity to actually do something about the crisis. On Election Day this November it can deliver a resounding defeat to the Republican Party, a party that, in the face of everthing that has happened, continues to place a higher priority on the authenticity of the President's birth certificate than it does on climate change and global warming.
Photo: Illinois farmer Jimmy Ayers eyes his corn, the growth of which has been stunted by the current Midwest drought. Seth Perlman/AP |
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Climate- Better weather tomorrow ? -But tomorrow never comes
Updated: 17 Jul 2012
Normal summer weather 'is on the way'
James Edgar , Tom Lawrence
Monday 16 July 2012
Britain is finally expected to get drier and warmer next week - but only after the country is hit by yet more downpours.
This summer's record-breaking grim weather has been caused by the jet stream settling unusually far south.
Now experts believe it is on its way back north, restoring a "more usual summer pattern".
The wettest April to June on record, followed by more heavy rain so far this month, has caused widespread - and in some cases, repeated - flooding.
More showers are expected to dampen the nation's spirits over the coming days, with heavy rain in the middle of the week, forecasters said.
The slightly improving conditions over the weekend have meant the Environment Agency (EA) now has a vastly reduced number of flood warnings and alerts.
They remain in place as drainage systems and river catchments struggle to come to terms with the record-breaking deluges that have left vast parts of the country saturated.
In the last 24 hours the EA has removed 26 warnings and alerts across England.
Tom Tobler, a forecaster with MeteoGroup, the Press Association's weather division, said: "There is going to be more rain.
"There will be patchy rain around tomorrow, more towards the North.
On Wednesday it will be very wet in places - southern Scotland, northern England, Northern Ireland and north Wales."
He said there will be some rain around on Thursday, but not as heavy as the previous day.
Looking ahead to the latter part of the week, he added: "We will get high pressure building to the west, and it looks like that's going to give us a couple of dry days on Friday and Saturday.
"It looks like there's going to be high pressure across the south of the UK, so it looks like it's going to be generally drier next week. But northern areas will see some rain, particularly northern Scotland."
Asked about the jet stream heading back towards its normal position, he said: "It's looking like a more usual summer pattern with the jet stream further north.
"It looks like southern areas can expect some dryer and warmer weather.
It's more like average summer conditions and weather we would expect."
He said there was "no sign" of the jet stream going back south after returning to its more northerly position.
Then London Olympic Games start on Friday next week, and Coral bookmakers has offered odds of 2/1 of rain falling in the Olympic Stadium during the men's 100m final and 25/1 on adverse weather forcing the cancellation of a full day's athletics.
Ladbrokes is offering odds of 6/4 that rain falls at the Olympic Games opening ceremony on July 27.
Mr Tobler said of the outlook for the Games: "It's looking more promising than it has been for a while, but it's too far away to give too much detail, really."
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Climate- House insurance in flooding areas
Updated: 13 Jul 2012
Every home to pay price of floods
Radical- Insurers and Spelman should "Get Stuffed". I shall not pay extra insurance for developers building houses in flood plains or property owners accepting that risk. The Environmental agency says my house is not in a flood risk area. That is why I bought it. I would advise that no one buys a house less than 50ft above ( or below) sea level. I insure for Fire and Theft only. The Insurance company already knows my house is not in a flooding zone. When they ask for your post code they check the Enviromental Agency map.
All homeowners will be forced to pay more for their house insurance to repair flood damage to properties in high-risk areas under government plans.
Rescue workers go to the aid of villagers in Croscombe, Somerset, yesterday after properties were flooded with up to 3ft of water following torrential rain.
Under government plans, a levy of around 10 per cent will be added to home insurance premiums to cover flood damage
By Tim Ross, and Rowena Mason
10:00PM BST 11 Jul 2012
Britain has endured the wettest start to a summer for more than a century with up to 17 inches of rain falling in some places and forecasts that the miserable conditions will continue into next month.
Thousands of properties have been flooded with insurers estimating the cost of repairs at hundreds of millions of pounds.
Now the Environment Secretary, Caroline Spelman, has disclosed she is in talks with the insurance industry about a scheme which could add 10 per cent to an average family’s bill.
She is proposing a levy, which could be in place within months, that would apply to all home insurance policies in an attempt to raise enough money to cover damage in the aftermath of severe flooding, which can reach billions of pounds in insurance claims.
Critics claimed the proposal represented a “stealth tax” and said it was unfair that those “sensible enough” to live outside areas which flood should pay more.
Hundreds of flood alerts and warnings have been issued in recent weeks after torrential rain swept the country, causing extensive damage to property.
Record breaking rainfall in June led the Environment Agency to urge householders to take action to protect their properties and avoid walking or driving through flood waters.
Financial experts have warned that thousands of homeowners in areas affected by this summer’s floods face higher premiums when they renew their annual home insurance schemes.
Some victims of the recent flooding have seen premiums rise by up to five times, while others have been told they must pay the first £5,000 of any future claim.
After an estimated £1 billion worth of damage was caused by extensive flooding in 2000, a deal was struck between the Labour government and insurance industry.
Should all homeowners be forced to pick up the bill for those who live in high-risk areas?
No, people are aware of the risks when they move in Yes, unexpected bad weather has left even sensible families suffering
VoteView Results
Insurers agreed to continue to cover the majority of customers living in areas prone to flooding in exchange for government promises to strengthen flood defences.
However, this deal is due to expire next year and no replacement scheme has yet been finalised.
The Council of Mortgage Lenders has warned that the uncertainty over the future arrangements for insuring homes in flood prone areas was likely to push up premiums.
In a statement to MPs yesterday, Mrs Spelman said she was close to reaching a new deal with the insurance industry.
Ministers are concerned that some insurance firms are able to “cherry pick” customers in low-risk areas and refuse to offer cover to home owners in flood-prone neighbourhoods.
At the same time, customers in high risk parts of the country cannot “shop around” for cheaper policies because they are tied in to their current providers under the existing agreement.
The Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs said most insurance companies already raise “a small sum” from policy holders to cover the cost of insuring homes at high risk of flooding.
Mrs Spelman said she was proposing nothing more than “formalising” the existing “cross-subsidy” and that talks with insurance firms have made “significant progress”.
“The Government is considering with the industry’s support a way of formalising existing pricing arrangements and maintaining the current cross-subsidy in place between policyholders,” she told MPs.
“This would be by means of an internal industry levy, as proposed by insurers themselves.”
She insisted that the new levy would “avoid increasing costs for those not at risk” while helping families in danger areas to afford insurance.
“The Government and insurers are determined to see insurance premiums remain affordable and widely available, particularly in light of the pressure household budgets are currently under and the pattern of flood events we have seen over recent years,” she said.
The government is also spending more than £2.1 billion on flood risk measures and will is ensuring that 145,000 more homes are better protected from flooding.
Mary Creagh, Labour’s Shadow Environment Secretary, said Mrs Spelman should have acted sooner.
“The statement does not do anything for home owners and businesses who are struggling to find flood insurance,” she said.
Defra is refusing to say how much the new levy could cost policy holders but insurance industry sources suggested the plan could see premiums rise by 10 per cent.
Ashwin Mistry, the chairman of Brokerbility, a network of independent insurance brokers, accused the Government of introducing a “stealth tax” instead of dealing with the underlying issue of poor flood defences.
He said topping up the insurance of flood-hit households is simply “papering over the cracks”.
“Should we be subsidising all those in flood zones continuously rather than dealing with the long-term problem?” he said.
“The extra cost would range from anything from £10 to £20 more per policy on top of everything else.
“It’s another tax by stealth, rather than addressing the critical issue of climate change and better infrastructure.”
Rivers burst their banks in Sidmouth, Devon, last week as residents in the South West were warned to protect their homes.
Last month was the wettest June since records began, with double the average rain falling during the month.
In Hebden Bridge, West Yorkshire, rising flood waters have overwhelmed the streets, causing extensive damage for a second time in two weeks.
Police told residents to stay at home upstairs if possible.
Ian Crowder, from AA Insurance, said it was inevitable that people would have to pay more for their home insurance because flooding is getting more unpredictable.
“Nobody likes paying more money and you could argue those sensible enough to choose houses away from flood plains will say why should I have to pay?” he said.
“On the other hand, this is how it works in almost every other country.
“The UK is unique around the world in that home insurance includes flood cover as standard.”
He said insurance companies are already preparing to withdraw cover from houses in the worst-affected areas from the middle of next year.
Unless the government can strike a deal with insurers, they will be left without insurance.
According to the AA, the average household pays £176 in building insurance every year. It rose 7 per cent over the last year and by 12 per cent the year before.
Nick Starling, Director of General Insurance at the Association of British Insurers, said: “Insurers continue to provide cover for flooding as a standard part of UK home and small business insurance and we remain committed to doing our very best to help those that suffer the devastation flooding brings.”
Wednesday, forecasters warned of more flooding in parts of Britain after nearly a month’s rain fell in just three hours.
Thunderstorms and persistent showers affected the south coast of England and the Environment Agency warned areas of Dorset and Kent could be at particular risk.
Five flood warnings were in place, in the South West and the Midlands, and there were 23 flood alerts across the country. |
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Climate- America continues to send us its extreme weather
Updated: 05 Jul 2012
Scientists say ongoing weather extremes offer proof of climate change
Record-shattering heatwaves, wildfires and freak storms are a sampling of what is to come in 2012 and a window to the future
Suzanne Goldenberg, US environment correspondent
guardian.co.uk,
Tuesday 3 July 2012 18.01 BST
Brookston in Minnesota is among scores of places across the country witnessing extreme weather.
The bizarre weather of early summer in the US – from heatwave, wildfires, drought to freak storms – is just a sampling of what is to come for 2012 and a window to the future under climate change, scientists have said.
Scientists are wary of linking specific weather events to climate change, and this year's punishing heat and deadly thunder storms have been confined to the Americas. Europe, Asia and Africa haven't experienced severe weather this year – though they have in past years.
But the run of extreme weather offers real-time proof of the consequences of climate change, said Kevin Trenberth, who heads climate research at the National Centre for Atmospheric Research in Colorado – itself the scene of devastating wildfires.
"We are certainly seeing climate change in action," he said. "This year has been exceptionally unusual throughout the United States."
Jeff Masters director of meteorology at the Weather Underground website, told Democracy Now: "What we're seeing now is the future.
We're going to be seeing a lot more weather like this, a lot more impacts like we're seeing from this series of heat waves, fires and storms."
He added: "This is just the beginning."
The prime exhibit for the bizarre turn of weather is the current heat wave.
The month of June alone shattered some 3,215 records for daily maximum heat.
Cities like St Louis were sweltering under five consecutive days of triple digit temperatures on Tuesday.
Last Thursday the city registered 108 degrees fahrenheit, the highest temperature in nearly 60 years.
"Historically this is going to end up being one of the hottest Junes of all time," said Harold Brooks, a research meteorologist at the National Severe Storm Laboratory in Oklahoma.
The high temperatures were also hitting earlier this summer, he said. Heat waves ordinarily do not build up until July.
But this has been a year for record-breaking heat.
Since the start of the year, the United States set more than 40,000 hot temperature records and fewer than 6,000 cold temperature records, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
Ordinarily, scientists would expect those numbers to be about the same, but the hot temperature records were falling at a ratio of about 7-1.
Such volatile temperatures, early in the year, helped contribute to the conditions for the deadly derecho thunder storm which blew through the Washington DC area with hurricane-force winds, killing some 22 people.
Brooks said it was one of the most powerful such storms in recent history.
On the other side of the country, meanwhile, extreme drought conditions across a vast swathe of the American west led to an outbreak of mega-fires in Arizona, Colorado, and New Mexico.
Colorado's fires, outside the cities of Colorado Springs and Boulder, have between them destroyed more than 650 houses.
And there was no relief in sight. Aside from pockets such as northern Minnesota, Washington state, and New England, temperatures across a vast swathe of the United States were heading to record hot temperatures, Brooks said.
The season has already raised public health concerns.
At least three people, all in their 70s and 80s, have died in St Louis since last week because of heat-related illness, medical officials said.
In the greater Washington DC area, where power outages due to the furious thunderstorm deepened the effects of a heat wave, the authorities have opened cooling centres in schools and community centres for those without access to air conditioning.
"Watch out for a long hot summer," said Trenberth. |
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Climate- US - Colorado is burning due to heat waves
Updated: 03 Jul 2012
Colorado burning:
This is what climate change looks like
by: Blake Deppe
June 29 2012
Colorado's Waldo Canyon Fire - which has forced the evacuation of 35,000 people, destroyed 346 homes, and burned for six days at the edge of Colorado Springs - is the most destructive brushfire on record for the state. According to experts, this havoc is just the beginning of what global warming will wreak in the future.
This is what climate change looks like.
Scorching temperatures and winds stoked the flames over the past few days, which has eaten up 18,500 acres of land so far.
Firefighters managed to form containment lines around just 15 percent of the wildfire's perimeter on June 28.
Elsewhere in the state, the High Park Fire remains active, and has very recently had a potentially upsetting ripple effect: it has blackened the nearby Poudre River with ash, possibly killing schools of fish beneath the now-tainted water.
The river is filled with dust and debris from the fire as well.
The more ash collects in the water, experts believe, the higher the fish mortality will become.
"This is going to happen over time" as the wildfire continues, said Ken Kehmeier, an aquatic biologist with Colorado Parks and Wildlife.
"When the river turns black, fish are getting all that particulate matter that could affect oxygen levels. We could see fish struggling due to their gills getting clogged up with ash."
In the case of the Waldo Canyon Fire, meanwhile, authorities say that arson cannot yet be ruled out as a culprit for the blaze.
But the more likely causes for it, note scientists, are several: shorter winters with reduced snowfall, earlier springs, and extreme and early summer heat, all of which occurred this year.
"What we're seeing is a window into what global warming really looks like," said Michael Oppenheimer, a Princeton University climate scientist.
"It looks like heat; it looks like fires; it looks like this kind of environmental disaster.
This provides vivid images of what we can expect to see more of in the future."
The aforementioned weather conditions, he added, were exactly what he and his colleagues at the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change had predicted would result from a carbon-induced climate shift.
Dr. Steven Running, a University of Montana forest ecologist, noted that mountain snow generally melted two weeks earlier than average this year in the U.S.
"That just sets us up for a longer, drier summer.
Then all you need is an ignition source and wind.
Now we have a lot of dead trees to burn, and it's not even July yet."
But the problem runs deeper than just disasters that have been observed this year alone. Since 1950, the number of heat waves worldwide has greatly increased, according to a report by nonprofit science outreach group Climate Communication.
The "remarkable run of record-shattering heat waves in recent years," said the report, "from the Russian heat wave of 2010 that set forests ablaze to the historic heat wave in Texas in 2011" all serve as examples of the ongoing climate change issue.
Others understand that right-wing efforts to deny the existence of climate change, to loosen regulations on pollution, and to divert attention away from environmentalism are only going to add to the problem.
Rep. Harry Waxman, D-Calf., remarked, "Extreme events like the wildfires in Colorado are going to get worse unless the Republican-controlled Congress changes course soon." |
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Climate- Global warming or wetting in June ? But my plants here are not complaining.
Updated: 02 Jul 2012
June one of the most miserable ever
Press Association –
Britain suffered the wettest June since 1860, figures showed
June was one of the wettest, dullest and coldest on record, according to newly released figures.
Provisional data indicates that it was the wettest June since 1860, a spokesman for MeteoGroup, the weather division of the Press Association, said.
It was also the dullest since 1909 and the coldest since 1991.
Average rainfall over England and Wales, including an estimated figure for June 30, was 157mm - 231% of the average for the period 1981-2010, and on a par with the 1860 readings.
The equivalent figures for Scotland were 104mm and 171% of the normal amount, and for Northern Ireland 145mm and 224%.
Monthly totals at routinely-available sites varied between 325mm at Capel Curig (Caernarfon) and 34mm at Stornoway (Isle of Lewis).
Average sunshine over England and Wales, including an estimated figure for June 30, was 123 hours, which is a mere 64% of the 1981-2010 average, making it the dullest June since 1909.
The equivalent figures for Scotland were 123 hours and 74%, and for Northern Ireland 136 hours and 75%.
The largest total in the UK was 167 hours at Tiree (Inner Hebrides) and the smallest just 57 hours at Eskdalemuir (Dumfriesshire).
Other low aggregates were 69 hours at Durham and 73 hours at Nottingham.
"Such monthly totals would not have been out of place in February," the spokesman said.
Daytime temperatures were typically 1.5-2.5 degrees Celsius below the long-term average in most parts of the country, and the Central England Temperature of 13.6C (56F) was 0.9 degree Celsius below the average for 1981-2010 - the lowest in June since 1991. |
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Climate- Global Warming - Poll reveals Climate is changing but ....
Updated: 26 Jun 2012
Economic climate has not affected views on global warming –
pollGuardian/ICM poll reveals public perception of climate change
remains consistent despite political shift during financial crisis
Tom Clark
guardian.co.uk, Monday 25 June 2012 19.47 BST
A new Guardian/ICM poll reveals the public view of man-made climate change has remained consistent in the last three years, despite a change in Conservative party priorities in the financial climate.
The cold financial climate of the last three years has made little impact on public attitudes towards global warming, according to a new Guardian/ICM poll.
As the world assembled for the Rio+20 UN sustainable development conference at the end of last week, the survey found that most British voters (57%) accept that man-made climate change is happening.
That is one point more than the 56% who took the same view when ICM posed a near-identical question just before the Copenhagen climate conference of 2009.
The poll identified a hardcore of 7% of respondents who deny the planet is getting warmer, two points more than the 5% who said the same at the time of Copenhagen.
The proportion who accept the planet is warming but insist this is not principally due to human factors has dwindled slightly, from 33% in December 2009 to 30% today.
The results suggest a remarkable pattern of stability in acceptance of climate change as established fact, a finding which may surprise politicians who have been lowering their environmental ambitions for fear of appearing out of step with hard times.
The leaders who went to Rio were so resigned to an insubstantial outcome that they allowed their sherpas to agree the basic communique before they had even arrived.
A follow-up question on impressions of the summit also revealed more continuity than change.
Only 17% of voters dismissed the Rio summit as a panic about an exaggerated threat – exactly the same proportion who said the same of Copenhagen.
But if the voters have not moved much, the same cannot be said of politicians.
Whereas David Cameron had hailed Copenhagen's "historic importance" as opposition leader, in the months running up to Rio, he licensed his chancellor to argue that "we're not going to save the planet by putting our country out of business".
One thing that may help understand this shifting political positioning is a sense that – among that majority of voters who do acknowledge a climate change problem – the subject has slipped a little down the list of priorities.
After three years of squeezed living standards, more of the people who accept carbon emissions need curbing warn leaders not to "lose sight of the need to maintain human prosperity".
The number taking this view has edged up from 45% to 50% since Copenhagen.
Meanwhile, the most committed environmentalists – those who describe the climate as "the most serious threat facing mankind" – have dwindled somewhat.
Before Copenhagen, 30% were in that camp; today its strength has fallen back to 27%.
The modest swing towards putting economics before the environment is somewhat more marked among Tory supporters and backers of minor parties, and it could be that Conservative high command fear that excessively green positions could see the party surrendering some rightwing voters to Ukip.
On the basic facts, however, a plurality of the supporters of all three parties are in agreement: 49% of Conservatives, 61% of Labour supporters and 67% of Lib Dems believe in man-made climate change.
Even if some differences in the rhetoric between different political leaders is emerging, most voters appear to accept climate science, regardless of their own party affiliation.
ICM Research interviewed a random sample of 1,002 adults aged 18+ by telephone on 22-24 June 2012.
Interviews were conducted across the country and the results have been weighted to the profile of all adults. ICM is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules. |
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Climate- Changeable weather-but how extreme ?
Updated: 19 Jun 2012
How to convince climate sceptics to be pro-environment
18:00 17 June 2012 by Michael Slezak
New Scientist
Climate change might eventually cause millions of deaths and all kinds of natural disasters.
But don't tell that to a climate-change sceptic if you want them to do anything about it.
Instead, focus on how mitigation efforts can help people become more warm and caring towards others or how it can promote economic and technological development.
That's the advice psychologists give after confirming the strategy in an experiment.
"I got the idea from mediation.
When people have disputes there's not much point convincing one party that they're wrong," says study leader Paul Bain, a psychologist at the University of Queensland in Brisbane, Australia.
Bain and colleagues first took 155 climate-change sceptics and asked them how their country – Australia – would be different in 2050 if action were taken now to mitigate climate change, and how likely they would be to engage in pro-environmental activity.
Those sceptics who thought action on climate change would make people more warm and considerate, or would promote technological or political development, were more likely to have pro-environmental intentions, such as voting for green candidates or signing petitions supporting action.
One participant wrote that "if we took action it would show we do care for the environment and therefore care for the human race".
Bain then went on to test whether telling sceptics about these "co-benefits" of climate change could affect their intentions more than telling them about the harms of inaction.
He found it did.
Participants who were told about climate action's effects on interpersonal warmth or societal development were more likely to report pro-environmental intentions than those told about the health risks of climate inaction.
Earlier research has shown that scientific evidence is unlikely to convince sceptics of the reality of climate change, and that arguments focusing on negative consequences are less successful than positively framed rationales.
"The authors basically took the baton from previous researchers and ran another really strong lap," says Dan Kahan, a psychologist at Yale Law School.
Robert Gifford, a psychologist at the University of Victoria in British Columbia, Canada, who has done pioneering work on the psychology of climate change, says the study suggests arguments that could help with climate campaigns.
But it will be important to see if the intentions demonstrated in the study can be translated into action, he says. |
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Climate - Sayings
Updated: 24 May 2012
A Swarm Of Bees In May
A swarm of bees in May Is worth a load of hay;
A swarm of bees in June Is worth a silver spoon;
A swarm of bees in July Is not worth a fly.
Lengthening Days
As the days grow longer The storms grow stronger |
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Climate- A New Plan to Save the Planet
Updated: 18 May 2012
A new plan to save the planet
Thursday, 17 May, 2012 1:39
"Iain Keith - Avaaz.org" <avaaz@avaaz.org>
;Dear friends,
In three days, world leaders could agree to a plan that could stop climate change!
The plan would transfer the $1 trillion our governments give to polluters every year and invest it in renewable energy.
Key leaders including President Obama support ending these crazy payments, and he is hosting the G8 summit this weekend.
Let's build a massive public campaign for Obama to lead this plan that could literally save our planet!
Sign the urgent petition:
This weekend, the eight most powerful leaders in the world will meet at the G8 summit and could agree to a plan that could literally stop climate change!
It’s crazy, but right now, our governments give nearly $1 trillion a year of our taxpayer money to Big Oil and Coal to destroy our planet.
Key leaders, including President Obama who is hosting the G8, have already agreed to stop these polluter payments.
Now, if we demand they act on their word and divert this huge sum into renewable energy, experts say we could actually save our planet!
It's a simple no-brainer that our leaders have already agreed to.
Let's hold their feet to the fire, and push President Obama to lead the world's largest economies to turn these polluting subsidies green.
Sign the urgent petition below and forward this to everyone -- a massive campaign now can force them from talk to action:
http://www.avaaz.org/en/a_new_plan_to_save_the_planet/?vl
The only reason we shovel cash into the coffers of Big Oil is their lobbyists have a stranglehold on our governments.
But if we demand that our leaders green our tax-money, we’ll increase total global green investment by 400% making solar and wind energy cheaper than oil and coal -- in the process saving the planet by putting Big Oil out of business!
We’re rapidly reaching a point of no return on climate change and a treaty to prevent catastrophe is years off. Fortunately, momentum behind this new planet saving plan is building.
New Zealand, Mexico and Switzerland are calling for an agreement now, and policy makers from 20 countries including the US, Brazil, and China have just voiced their support.
All G8 leaders have publicly committed to ending these dirty subsidies, and right now President Obama is pushing for US legislation to stop them.
Our planet is being destroyed at a terrifying rate and this is our best chance to stop it.
Now is the time for action, but without massive public support, the powerful polluters could stall the proposal. It's up to us to counter the lobbyists with extraordinary people power.
We have three days left to get Obama to lead. Sign the petition:
http://www.avaaz.org/en/a_new_plan_to_save_the_planet/?vl
For too long, progress on a global solution to climate change has been held back by self-interest and the profits of Big Oil, Coal and Gas.
But, finally governments are realising that cutting subsidies will benefit the climate and help balance out the global economy.
If we speak up now, together, our movement can force our leaders to action and free the world from the tyranny of fossil fuels.
With hope,
Iain, Joseph, Alice, Ricken, Diego, Kya and the rest of the Avaaz team
More information:
Hansen: Game Over for the Climate (New York Times):
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/05/10/opinion/game-over-for-the-climate.html
A Congressional Push to End All Fossil Fuel Subsidies (The Nation):
http://www.thenation.com/blog/167831/congressional-push-end-all-fossil-fuel-subsidies
Obama says tax breaks for Big Oil need to end (Financial Post):
http://business.financialpost.com/2012/03/29/obama-says-tax-breaks-for-big-oil-need-to-end/?__lsa=7934943e
Fossil-fuel subsidies: Helping the richest get richer (Los Angeles Times):
http://articles.latimes.com/2012/apr/05/opinion/la-oe-mckibben-stop-oil-subsidies-20120404
Phasing out fossil fuel subsidies could provide half of global carbon target (The Guardian):
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2012/jan/19/fossil-fuel-subsidies-carbon-target |
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Climate- The Big Australian Drought Ends
Updated: 16 May 2012
Australia's decade-long drought ends
16:41 01 May 2012 by Andy Coghlan
For similar stories, visit the Climate Change Topic Guide
New Scientist
It's official. Australia's decade-long drought ended this week.
But that doesn't mean the region is in the clear, warn hydrologists.
"No predictions have been made on the timing of the next drought, but the scientific view is that in the southeast of Australia, we should expect droughts to become more severe and more frequent," says Bill Young, a leading hydrologist at CSIRO, Australia's national science agency.
Young says that elements of the recent drought are consistent with what is expected from an event that is driven by climate change.
However, researchers have yet to pin down the exact contribution of greenhouse gas emissions and natural variability in the climate.
Australia's extremes of drought and flood see-saw with the cycles of the El Niño and La Niña climate oscillation.
The warming effect of emissions complicates this cycle, so modelling the overall effect is fraught with uncertainty.
The official end of the "Big Dry" came on Monday when meteorologists declared the country's two remaining drought-hit areas – Bundarra and Eurobodalla in New South Wales – free of drought.
The Australian government has a water-management plan which aims to ensure that water will be available in times of drought, says Young.
This plan will be reviewed in 2015 to deal better with the consequences of climate change
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Climate- UK Weather Warnings - Flooding on Sunday 29th April
Updated: 28 Apr 2012
UK Warnings
Weather Warning
2012-04-27 04:34:26
Friday 27th April
YELLOW WARNING for RAIN
Slow moving heavy and locally thundery downpours will affect parts of southwest England on Friday bringing a risk of hail and thunder.
There may be localised surface water flooding and driving conditions will be poor.
Valid Friday 1100 to 1900
Friday 27th April
YELLOW WARNING for RAIN
The northeast of Scotland can expect further rain on Friday, with snow on the hills.
Driving conditions will be difficult with a lot of spray on the roads and the potential for localised flooding.
Valid Friday 0800 to 1700
Friday 27th April
YELLOW ALERT for RAIN
Another vigorous depression is expected to spread heavy rain and strong winds into
southern and some central areas of England and Wales on Sunday.
This may lead to some impacts in terms of localised flooding given recent wet conditions,
and easterly winds may exceed 50mph in exposed locations, again leading to some impacts,
such as fallen branches.
Valid Sunday 0001 to sunday 2359
Flood Warning
2012-04-27 07:16:48
Friday 27th April
There are 19 flood warnings in force in the following areas:
Northeast England 11
Scotland 8
Further updates will appear here.
About the Met Office Weather Warnings
BBC Weather carries two types of weather warnings issued by the Met Office: Warnings and Early Warnings.
Warnings will be issued when severe weather is expected within the next 24 hours.
Early Warnings will be issued more than 24 hours ahead of severe weather.
There are three categories of event Red, Amber and Yellow - the most severe is Red.
A Warning and an Early Warning of the same colour have the same severity but are forecast to arrive at different times. Thus, the difference between a Red Warning and a Red Early Warning is the lead time of the event.
When a warning is in force, full information can be found at Met Office Weather Warnings
About the Environment Agency Flood Warnings
The flood warnings are issued by the Environment Agency and the Scottish Environment Protection Agency and sent to the BBC Weather Centre, we then issue a compendium of warnings based on the latest information available. When severe flood warnings are issued they will also be highlighted on TV broadcasts.
Find out more about Flood Warnings
There are a number of ways you find out whether your area is at risk from flooding. Both the Environment Agency (for England and Wales) and the Scottish Environment Protection Agency update their warnings 24 hours a day via the Floodline number.
Floodline - 0845 988 1188
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Climate- Drought or Deluge - Water Agencies ? -There's a hole in their bucket
Updated: 26 Apr 2012
Heavy rain and flooding but drought continues
25 April 2012 | By Olivia Midgley
TORRENTIAL downpours which have led to flash flooding in several areas of the UK are ‘masking’ the real effects of the drought, the NFU’s senior policy adviser has said.
Paul Hammett, who met with Environment Agency chiefs on behalf of farmers this week, said although the rainfall had brought some light relief, the industry ‘must react to the underlying issue’.
“The current rain fall is taking a huge amount of pressure off everybody,” he said.
“This time last year the irrigators were flat out and that is not necessary this year.
Thanks to the rain we have got some water in the bank.
“However, if it stops soon then we will be in difficulty because water levels are still extremely low.
“We need much more to repair the damage caused by two years of below-average rain.”
It comes after a week of torrid weather conditions, which saw persistent rain falling all over the UK alongside gusty winds and rumbles of thunder.
Arable and pig farmer Peter Lundgren, reported hail stones ‘the size of golf balls’ on his farm on the Lincolnshire Fens and others were hammered with power showers and ‘mid-air tornados’.
The north of England and Scotland were issued with weather warnings and the Met Office warned off ‘extreme’ weather and hazardous driving conditions.
Forecasters said April was on course to be the wettest on record, after some regions were battered with a month’s worth of rain in five days.
The drought-stricken south and south-east of England was also hit, after 5cm (2in) of rainfall in just 72 hours.
But head of water resources at the Environment Agency, Trevor Phillips, confirmed hosepipe bans would remain in force.
He said: “Soil is dry so most rain is soaked up by pants, evaporates, or runs off, causing flash floods.”
Mr Hammett added farmers must now think ahead and plan for 2013.
“This respite is giving the agricultural community the opportunity to look at long term management plans,” he said.
“The Environment Agency has offered farmers some flexibility in their licensing system as a short term emergency provision, but we think this should carried on into long term thinking and we will continue to work with them to ensure farmers get their fare share of water.” |
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Climate- Its "All According to the Weather" NOT the Met Office
Updated: 23 Apr 2012
The weatherman caught in a media storm
Rogue forecaster brands Met Office 'lying scum'
after spat over his latest apocalyptic warning
Michael McCarthy Saturday 21 April 2012
It's surely one of the more sensational weather forecasts of the last few years – the prediction that next month will be the coldest May in Britain for a century.
It was splashed all over the front page of the Daily Express on Thursday and doubtless sent a shiver down the spines of many people already fed up with the chilly spring.
But it didn't come from the Met Office. No, this prophecy of a truly out-of-season wintry month came from an independent weather forecaster, Piers Corbyn, using what he terms his "solar weather technique" which involves calculating how solar particles will interact with the Earth.
However, Mr Corbyn, 65, who has a degree in physics and runs a company named WeatherAction from an office in south London, declines to disclose his methodology in detail.
He specialises in long-range forecasts, especially those concerned with extreme weather events, and four days ago, in dramatic headlines on his website, he prophesied "the coldest or near coldest May for 100 years in central and east parts with a record run of bitter northerly winds ... spring put into reverse."
He added that his confidence regarding mean temperatures in east and south-east England was 80 per cent for them being the coldest in 100 years, and 90 per cent for them being in the coldest five years of the century.
Contrast this with the current Met Office 30-day forecast, which says that temperatures up to mid-May "will generally be close to or slightly above the seasonal average".
This is arrived at by using numerical weather prediction, the technique employed by all the world's meteorological services – running mathematical models of the weather on supercomputers.
There doesn't seem to be a meeting point between the Met Office and Mr C, and indeed, if you mention him to the chaps down in Exeter, the response is a world-weary sigh.
"Piers Corbyn has never been able or willing to publish," says a spokesman, "detailed analysis of how he forecasts the weather".
Mr Corbyn's response to this is robust. "They're lying scum!" he snorts.
"Because basically, whenever I've had meetings and invited them along, they've refused to come."
On his methods, he says: "We've published detailed results, or others have published detailed results..."
But the methodology...?
"We have published certain ideas..."
But not the whole thing in detail?
"Well why the f**k should I? The methodology is owned by the company, right? Why the hell do you drink Coca-Cola when the recipe is secret?"
Mr Corbyn will, though, give a generalised outline.
"It's based on the fact that the weather and climate are controlled by activity from the Sun, and its modulation by the orbit of the Moon," he says. "It's a solar-magnetic-lunar system."
Reminded that all the world's national weather services use numerical weather prediction, he says: "Well, what they're doing there is delusional nonsense, because the weather is not controlled by the weather.
It's controlled by other things, ie external factors.
"Their calling for more money to be spent on computers is just theft.
All it will enable them to do is get the wrong answer quicker." |
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Climate- Drought ? But we are expecting rain for the next two weeks
Updated: 17 Apr 2012
Seventeen counties now officially in drought
16 April 2012 | By Barry Alston
Farmers Guardian
AS large parts of the Midlands and South West England are today (Monday, April 16) officially declared in drought, Environment Agency Wales said it is also concerned for river levels — particularly in the east of Wales.
In all, 17 counties in south west England and the Midlands have moved into official drought status as, although public water supplies are safe, the lack of rain is taking its toll on the environment.
The drought conditions in the Midlands apply to the River Severn, Trent and Wye catchments in Nottinghamshire, Leicestershire, Derbyshire, Staffordshire, West Midlands, Warwickshire, Shropshire, Worcestershire, Herefordshire and Gloucestershire (not south Gloucestershire or Cotswolds).
The drought conditions in the South West apply to Cornwall, Devon, Somerset, Bristol, South Gloucestershire, parts of Hampshire and most of Wiltshire.
In Wales, although there is also no current risk to public water supply, there is concern that a shortage of water in some Welsh rivers could lead to similar problems for wildlife and the wider environment if the dry weather continues over the spring and early summer.
In south east Wales, the rivers Wye, Usk and the Ebbw are at or near their lowest level on record for the time of year, with rivers like the Taff and Monnow also low.
In the rest of Wales most rivers are below normal with the Dee, Clwyd and Ceiriog in North Wales and the Neath and Ystwyth in the South West being exceptionally low for the time of year.
Recent rainfall has only eased the situation slightly after an exceedingly dry February and March.
Rainfall for Wales in March was, in fact, the fifth lowest in 100 years — 70 per cent less than the average for the month.
Low river levels cause problems for important species like salmon and sewin when they migrate to spawn. It also intensifies the effect pollution has on other fish and wildlife if there is an incident.
People can help by conserving water and using it as sparingly as possible as it will reduce the amount of water needed to be taken from rivers.
“Most reservoirs in Wales are more than 90 per cent full at the moment so there is no problem with public water supplies,” said Chris Mills, Environment Agency Wales director.
“However, this is only half the story. Rivers in Wales are affected quickly by a lack of rain, and some rivers are now very low despite the recent wet weather.”
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Climate- Himalayan Glaciers are growing again
Updated: 17 Apr 2012
Michael Marshall, environment reporter
New Scientist
In one corner of the world, there is more ice today than there was 10 years ago.
New satellite data shows that the glaciers in the Karakoram have grown slightly over the last decade, bucking the global trend.
We don't know why it has happened - but it's important to keep it in perspective.
The Karakoram is a large Asian mountain range next to the Himalayas.
It includes K2, the second tallest mountain in the world.
While the Karakoram is home to many of the world's glaciers, there is little data on their behaviour because it is so remote.
Now Julie Gardelle of the University of Grenoble in France and colleagues have used satellite data to build two pictures of the Karakoram's glaciers, from 1999 and 2008. That tells us how they have changed.
Gardelle found that the glaciers grew slightly, adding an extra layer of ice that equates to an 11-centimetre thickness of water every year.
By taking up this extra water, the glaciers prevented about 0.01 millimetres of sea level rise per year.
Most of the world's glaciers and ice sheets are retreating as the world warms up, so what's so special about the Karakoram?
The short answer is we don't know. The BBC quotes Gardelle saying that it may be because of increased snowfall:
We don't really know the reason... Right now we believe that it could be due to a very specific regional climate over Karakoram because there have been meteorological measurements showing increased winter precipitation; but that's just a guess at this stage.
The Karakoram study comes hard on the heels of another paper, published in February, which looked at the Himalayas themselves. The conclusion: the Himalayas have lost mass, but not as quickly as we thought.
The new finding has led to a predictable swathe of media coverage, not all of it sensible. The UK's Mail Online would have us believe that we should "Forget global warming: Scientists discover glaciers in Asia that are getting bigger".
The site later amended the headline to "New question mark over global warming" - which is not much better, and detracts from what is, below the headline, a perfectly measured story on the science.
The reality is that the Karakoram is an oddity, albeit one that deserves attention. Millions of people rely on the runoff from its glaciers, so it's important to understand what is happening to them.
But on a global scale, the picture has barely changed. Glaciologist Jonathan Bamber makes this point in the Guardian:
With glaciers and ice sheets covering such a diverse range of latitudes (from the tropics to the poles) and altitudes (from sea level to over 6,000 metres), it is not surprising that there are regional variations in their behaviour.
Such variability should not, however, distract from the broader and more important story unfolding, which is one of profound and likely irreversible changes to global land and sea ice cover.
Taken as a whole, the evidence for sustained changes to the cryosphere is clear.
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Climate- The Rain God sends April Showers but Farmers want more in May
Updated: 12 Apr 2012
Farmers thankful for April showers
11 April 2012 | By Olivia Midgley
THE April showers which drenched parts of the country over the past week have come as a welcome break to arable farmers.
The sudden drop in temperature brought with it heavy downpours, with farmers in drought hit areas reporting more than 40mm of rain in one hour.
Brian Barker, who farms with his cousin Patrick in Stowmarket, Suffolk, said the rain had come at just the right time.
“We are in quite heavy land so we weren’t in dire straits but when the rain came all the farmers had a smile on their face,” he said.
“It was very localised though as we got 23mm in one hour but our neighbours only got 15mm.
“If we got 20mm every two weeks for the next three months it’d be ideal.”
Met Office forecasters predict more unsettled weather this week.
The North and West will be the worst affected, while parts of the South and South East are expected to escape most of the downpours.
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Climate- UK -Unsettled weather to continue
Updated: 10 Apr 2012
Unsettled weather set to continue
Thomas Pascoe Monday 09 April 2012
Independent
The grim weather which saw most of Britain endure an overcast Easter looks set to continue, according to forecasters.
Michael Dukes, a forecaster with MeteoGroup UK, the weather division of the Press Association, said: "We should be careful about saying that this is unwelcome weather - all of the water boards are desperate for it to carry on.
"The rest of the week will be unsettled. The best chance of sunshine will be in the mornings with showers in the afternoon. The northern hills could see snow.
"Daily temperatures will be around the 9C to 13C mark, dropping off over the weekend when they could fall to 7C to 11C with patchy frosts occurring in places.
"At the moment the winds are coming from the north and the north-west which means that they are particularly cool."
Mr Dukes offered a glimmer of hope when he added: "The good news is that looking back over recent years, you could make a vague link between good Aprils and disappointing summers, although that is an observation, not a forecast." |
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Climate- "Gods own Country"- Yorkshire joins the drought
Updated: 29 Mar 2012
Yorkshire now officially in drought
28 March 2012 | By Olivia Midgley
Farmers Guardian
AREAS of Yorkshire are now officially in drought, the Environment Agency announced today (Wednesday, March 28).
Chesterfield, the south of Yorkshire and Scarborough in the east have fallen into the drought zone, with areas around Sheffield, Doncaster, Hull and Driffield also affected.
Some areas of Yorkshire have seen the driest 12 months since 1910, and with river levels continuing to fall, the Environment Agency is appealing to farmers and businesses that take water from rivers to look for ways to use water wisely, and share the resources that are available.
Head of Water Resources, Trevor Bishop, said: “The Environment Agency must balance the water needs of people, farmers, businesses and the environment and we are working with businesses, farmers and water companies to plan ahead to meet the challenges of a continued drought.”
Earlier this month the Environment Agency warned drought could spread to more areas of the country if dry weather continues.
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Climate-The Disappearance of Artic Sea Ice
Updated: 28 Mar 2012
Arctic sea ice may have passed crucial tipping point
13:34 27 March 2012 by Fred Pearce
New Scientist
The disappearance of Arctic sea ice has crossed a "tipping point" that could soon make ice-free summers a regular feature across most of the Arctic Ocean, says a British climate scientist who is setting up an early warning system for dangerous climate tipping points.
Tim Lenton at the University of Exeter has carried out a day-by-day assessment of Arctic ice-cover data collected since satellite observation began in 1979. He presented his hotly anticipated findings for the first time at the Planet Under Pressure conference in London on Monday.
Up until 2007, sea ice systematically fluctuated between extensive cover in winter and lower cover in summer. But since then, says Lenton, the difference between winter and summer ice cover has been a million square kilometres greater than it was before, as a result of unprecedented summer melting. These observations are in contrast to what models predict should have happened.
Permanent alteration
Despite fears of runaway sea-ice loss after summer cover hit an all-time low in 2007 – opening the Northwest Passage for the first time in living memory – modelling studies based on our best understanding of ice dynamics indicated the ice cover should fully recover each winter. "They suggest that even if the ice declined a large amount in one year, it should bounce back," says Walt Meier of the US National Snow and Ice Data Center in Boulder, Colorado.
Instead, Lenton's research shows a permanent alteration. According to data from the past five years, the Arctic sea ice has not recovered from the 2007 extreme low. "The system has passed a tipping point," he says.
What caused the change is still unclear. Lenton speculates that the exceptional low in 2007 (pictured, above right) might have allowed the ocean to absorb so much heat that a lot of the thicker multiyear ice, which used to persist through the summer, was melted. Alternatively, the loss of ice may have changed air circulation patterns above the Arctic in ways that have similarly "locked in" the change.
Tsunami risk
Other glaciologists would not comment before seeing the details of the analysis, which have yet to be published in a journal. But if the findings are confirmed, they say, the existing models will have to be rewritten.
Elsewhere at the conference, Euan Nisbet of Royal Holloway, University of London, offered one particularly scary consequence of Arctic warming. He warned on Tuesday that warming ocean currents east of Greenland were melting ice in the seabed.
This could trigger landslides on steep submarine slopes in the area, unleashing tsunamis capable of hitting the UK, and releasing buried methane that could amplify global warming. Something similar happened off Norway 8000 years ago in a similar geological setting, Nisbet told New Scientist
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Climate- Melting Ice could trigger colder winters -and flooding
Updated: 20 Mar 2012
Melting sea ice could trigger colder winters
20:00 27 February 2012 by Catherine Brahic
New Scientist
Arctic sea ice is continuing its seemingly interminable decline, and it looks like the loss could be contributing to the recent spate of cold winters over northern Europe and North America.
Researchers are still unsure about how important sea-ice loss is to winter weather.
The fluctuating weather that Europe and the Americas have experienced since December last year is a reminder that many different factors are at play.
Jiping Liu at the Georgia Institute of Technology in Atlanta crunched data on ice and weather from the last three decades and found a link between the extent of Arctic sea ice and cold, snowy winters in the regions immediately to the south.
"The study adds weight to growing belief that Arctic sea ice is driving an increase of cold winters," says Adam Scaife of the UK Met Office. His team has also found evidence to support such a link.
Open water
It is well established that the dramatic loss of winter sea ice in the Arctic has caused it to feel global warming more sharply than the rest of the planet.
Less ice means more exposed water, which – being darker than ice – absorbs more solar energy.
To compound things, with less ice to insulate the warmer ocean from the air above, more of that energy is released back into the atmosphere as heat.
The net result is that Arctic air is significantly warmer than before. Some years, winter temperatures have reached 4 °C above average – an enormous difference.
Things get a bit messier when figuring out how this affects the weather further south. When the Arctic winter is warmer – and there's less of a contrast between temperatures at the pole and in the tropics – the jet stream tends to creep south and lose some of its strength.
This is known as a "negative Arctic oscillation".
During these negative phases, the jet stream blows warm weather in over the Mediterranean and allows cold, dry Arctic air to rush in over the northern continents.
Solar cycles
But while Liu's research strengthens the case for a strong link between sea ice and the negative Arctic oscillations that encourage extreme winters, Scaife and others point out that it is just one factor among many.
A case in point, this winter started out quite mild.
The Arctic oscillation only flipped into a negative phase in mid-January, triggering cold spells that killed hundreds of people in eastern Europe and Asia. This suggests other factors are at play.
James Overland of the Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory in Seattle believes the weather we have seen in the past few months is largely down to natural variations.
"There are other factors besides sea-ice anomalies that influence winter snowfall," agrees Liu.
They include the El Niño/La Niña cycle and the roughly-decadal variations in the solar activity.
El Niño and solar minima both bring cold winters.
Balancing act
The big challenge now is to integrate everything we know about the different factors into one big model, to figure out how they all play out together.
"If it were down to the sun alone, we would be heading from colder winters to milder ones on average," says Scaife – because solar activity is on the rise right now.
But Liu's results show that decrease in Arctic ice cover will have the opposite effect.
How the two factors will balance out in the short term is impossible to say.
In the long term, solar activity will continue to cycle up and down, but we expect ice to keep melting.
"If you're looking 30 years ahead, when Arctic will be closer to 80 per cent ice-free rather than 30 or 40 per cent.
We can expect to see colder winters," says Overland.
Journal reference: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1114910109
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Climate-Strong Solar Storm heading for Earth
Updated: 09 Mar 2012
Strong solar storm heading for Earth
Three-stage disturbance could last for days and affect power grids, air routes, satellites and GPS devices.
Last Modified: 08 Mar 2012 10:00
A strong geomagnetic storm is racing from the Sun towards Earth.
Its expected arrival on Thursday could affect power grids, airplane routes and space-based satellite navigation systems, US space weather experts said.
The storm, a big cloud of charged particles flung from the Sun at about 7.2 million km/h, was spawned by a pair of solar flares, scientists said.
This is probably the strongest such event in nearly six years, and is likely more intense than a similar storm in late January, said Joseph Kunches, a space weather specialist at the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
This solar disturbance is a three-stage affair, or as Kunches said in a telephone interview from Boulder, Colorado: "We hit the trifecta."
These are the stages he described, with the first two already affecting Earth:
• First, two solar flares moving at nearly the speed of light reached Earth late on Tuesday.
Such flares can cause radio blackouts.
• Then, solar radiation hit Earth's magnetic field on Wednesday, with possible impact on air traffic, especially near the poles, satellites and any astronauts taking space walks.
This phase could last for days.
• Finally, the plasma cloud sent by the coronal mass ejection, which is basically a big chunk of the Sun's atmosphere, is expected to arrive at Earth early on Thursday.
This phase can disrupt power grids, satellites, oil pipelines and high-accuracy GPS systems used by oil drillers, surveyors and some agricultural operations, scientists said.
GPS systems used for less-refined functions, such as the turn-by-turn navigation found in many cars, should not be affected, according to NOAA's Doug Biesiecker.
Kunches said the geomagnetic component of the storm may arrive a bit ahead of schedule because it followed a previous storm that left the Sun on Sunday and is currently buffeting the Earth's magnetosphere.
"When you've already had one coronal mass ejection storm, sometimes the next coronal mass ejection storm is faster to get here," Kunches said.
These storms could produce some vivid auroras, according to experts.
Solar peak
In the northern hemisphere, the aurora borealis could be visible at mid-latitudes.
Such stormy space weather is unusual in recent history, according to Harlan Spence, an astrophysicist at the University of New Hampshire who is principal investigator on the Cosmic Ray Telescope for the Effects of Radiation (CRaTER) aboard NASA's Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter.
"These relatively large (solar) events, which we've had maybe a couple of handfuls total in the course of a decade, we've now had two or three of them, more or less right on top of each other," Spence said by telephone.
The Sun is on the ascendant phase of its 11-year cycle of solar activity, with the peak expected next year, scientists said.
"It's a clear harbinger that the Sun is waking up," Spence said.
"We're trying to put this in context not only ... of what has the Sun done in the past, but what is the biggest thing the Sun is capable of and what should we be planning for in terms of extreme sorts of events in the future." |
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Climate- UK - A Water Shortage for Food ? Could it be raining in the wrong place ?
Updated: 13 Feb 2012
Fears of British super-drought after record low rainfall in winter
Underground water supplies are being used
to keep rivers flowing in the seasons
when they are supposed to be replenished
Robin McKie
• The Observer, Sunday 12 February 2012
Low water levels at Thirlmere reservoir in Cumbria.
The pond at St Peter's Church in Snailwell, Cambridgeshire, is surrounded by clumps of bulrushes and thick oak trees that give it a timeless English appeal.
Coated in a dusting of snow, this small body of water looked the epitome of rural charm.
Only one odd feature upset its picture-postcard appearance.
Around noon every day, automated pumps just above the pond are switched on and for the next few hours 400,000 gallons (1.8m litres) of water are sent cascading down a brick-lined gully into the lake.
The reason for this daily influx is straightforward. If engineers from the Environment Agency had not started pumping water into Snailwell's pond every day this winter, it would have disappeared weeks ago, the victim of a drought that now threatens much of England with a summer of parched landscapes, rivers reduced to trickles and possible hosepipe bans ahead.
"When you use the word drought you become a hostage to fortune.
Events can occur at the last minute to make you look silly," said Andrew Chapman, a senior environment planning officer with the agency.
"But the position is becoming very serious. In simple terms, unless we get a downpour that lasts for several weeks in the very near future, we are in trouble.
There could be severe water shortages in many parts of the country."
Worst affected areas would include the Midlands, East Anglia and the south-east of England, say agency officials.
The impending crisis – which could have widespread consequences for farmers, food production, tourism, industry and domestic life – has been building for the past 18 months. Reservoirs were already low this time last year.
Then came 2011, the driest year in England and Wales for 90 years.
In addition, we are now experiencing the driest winter on record, though this could change over the next few weeks, meteorologists have said.
The crucial point is that boreholes and reservoirs are now at "notably low" or "exceptionally low" levels. At the RSPB reserve at Titchwell Marsh in Norfolk, springs have dried up and many of the birds, including populations of bearded tits, marsh harriers and reed warblers, are now struggling to find food. Fresh water plants and animals such as water voles are also suffering.
"This is a very worrying situation to have at this time of year," said Grahame Madge, an RSPB official. "This is an incredibly important wildlife site that we cannot afford to have damaged. We are going to have to look very carefully at how we manage water supplies there in coming years."
In addition, rivers have dried up in several areas.
These include tributaries of the Welland in Lincolnshire and the Chess in Buckinghamshire.
Fish have become stranded in pools and had to be rescued by agency workers and moved to areas where water is flowing.
"We sometimes have to carry out such rescues in summer," said Ian Barker, the Environment Agency's head of water, land and biodiversity. "But we are having to do this in mid-winter, the one time of year when there is supposed to be plenty of water and rainfall. That is certainly not a healthy state."
The impending water crisis is particularly worrying for farmers.
At this time of year, many build storage lagoons to hold water that they can use later in the year to irrigate crops. But to be allowed to dam up water that would otherwise flow into rivers, farmers have to be given permits by the Environment Agency.
So far this year, 345 applications for such stores have had restrictions placed on them by the agency, limiting the powers of farmers to provide water for their crops during the forthcoming growing season.
"We are facing drastic reductions in yield," said Andrew Nottage, who runs the Russell Smith farm at Duxford, Cambridgeshire.
Among the crops grown by Nottage are potatoes and onions – vegetables that have a high demand for water.
"We can switch crops to less water-intensive types, but there is a problem doing that," he said.
"Farmers are locked into long-term contracts with supermarkets to provide them with the vegetables they want to provide for the British public later in the year.
"It is therefore difficult to switch crops even if you know that you are going to be in trouble when it comes to supplying water for them."
The problem for Britain is that East Anglia is one of the nation's principal food-producing regions. It is also the driest in the country.
"Rainfall patterns here are similar to Israel," said Nottage.
"That makes farming a tricky business some years."
To address the shortage of rainfall last year, the Environment Agency estimated that it would need 20% above average for the months from December last year to April this year.
To date, the rains have been 30% below average.
This month has also been cold – but dry. Instead of being replenished by rain percolating through the ground, boreholes are being used to pump what water they have left to prevent rivers and streams drying up – as is being done at Snailwell.
"If we don't prevent the pond drying up, then the streams that feed from it will disappear and the local wildlife will really suffer," said John Orr, a manager at the Environment Agency.
Whether these problems trigger a full drought in England this summer depends not just on rainfall but summer temperatures. Britain's worst years for rainfall included 1921, 1933, and 1964, but these were not the worst years for drought.
Summers then were relatively cool, and that made up for the lack of water in boreholes and reservoirs.
It was only when heatwaves began to take place, in years when water levels were only fairly low, that there were significant shortages.
This occurred in 1911, 1955, and 1976.
In the case of 1976, the effects were devastating.
The temperature reached 27C (80F) every day between 22 June and 16 July, and often climbed well above 32C (90F). Crucially, the previous summer and autumn had been very dry, while the winter of 1975-76 was also exceptionally dry, along with the spring of 1976.
Heath and forest fires broke out across southern England at the peak of the drought in August; 50,000 trees were destroyed at Hurn Forest in Dorset; and an estimated £500m of crops were lost across the country.
Food prices rose by 12%. Many rivers ran dry.
A drought act was passed by parliament and Denis Howell was appointed minister of drought co-ordination. Among his homespun ideas in response was a suggestion to put bricks in lavatory cisterns and a proposal that husbands and wives should share baths.
There was also widespread water rationing across England. In some areas, supplies to homes were turned off and water was delivered by lorries or public standpipes in streets.
The country has a long way to go before it reaches these extremes, insist officials from the Environment Agency. It would require an exceptionally hot summer to trigger a serious drought, even if there was little rain over the next few months.
On the other hand, the signs are worrying, even in Snailwell. "We are trying to offset the worst effects of the drought that we are already experiencing by pumping water into the pond to protect the streams that feed of it," said Chapman.
"But at the end of the day, we are facing a situation in which there may be no more water to extract from the ground to keep the pond there.
The next few weeks will be crucial." |
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Climate- Britain's greenhouse gasses on the rise
Updated: 08 Feb 2012
First greenhouse gas rises since 2003 cause concern
Tuesday 07 February 2012
Britain's greenhouse gas emissions rose in 2010 for the first time since 2003, figures showed today.
The final estimates for 2010 showed that greenhouse gas output rose by more than 3 per cent, largely due to an increase in gas use for heating homes in the face of cold weather at the beginning and the end of the year.
Emissions from the residential sector rose by almost 15 per cent from 2009, the statistics from the Department of Energy and Climate Change showed.
The rise in emissions was also driven in part by switching away from nuclear to coal and gas for generating electricity.
Friends of the Earth executive director Andy Atkins said: "The rise in fossil fuel use is bad news for the planet and cash-strapped families struggling to cope with the rocketing cost of gas and coal.
"Switching to clean British power and slashing energy waste is the only way to cut fuel bills, reduce emissions and safeguard energy supplies in the future - this must be a top priority for the new Energy Secretary, Ed Davey."
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Climate-Britain- Is your home in a flood zone ?
Updated: 26 Jan 2012
UK told to prepare for mass floods in future
Study says flooding caused by climate change could affect 5 million a year by 2080
Michael McCarthy Thursday 26 January 2012
Tewkesbury was among the worst-affected areas in the 2007 floods
Flooding caused by heavier rainfall will be the major threat to Britain from climate change in the coming decades, potentially costing the country billions a year, a new assessment of the risks of global warming concluded yesterday.
New research commissioned by the Government shows that if no further plans are made to adapt to changing flood risks, as temperatures rise and population grows, by the 2080s damage to buildings and property could reach £12bn per year, compared with current costs of £1.2bn.
In the worst-case scenario, five million people could be affected.
Flooding is regarded as the most serious of 100 separate challenges from a changing climate to Britain's economy, society and natural environment, which have been identified in a comprehensive new study, the Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA).
These include increased health problems for vulnerable people in hotter summers, increased pressure on the UK's water resources, droughts affecting farmers and the potential introduction of new pests and diseases.
The study says that if no further precautions are taken, the number of people affected by flooding is likely to hit between 1.66 million and 3.64 million annually by the 2050s, and by 2.43 million to 4.98 million by the 2080s.
It is significant that of the many problems posed by climate change, flooding is now seen as the most important.
The man behind the CCRA, Sir Bob Watson, Chief Scientific Adviser at the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, said. "I think the flooding issue is the most dominant."
However, this seems at odds with the Government's spending priorities, as expenditure on flood defence has been cut by 27 per cent from the last Labour administration's £354m annually, to £259m a year for the next four years.
"Ministers are playing Russian roulette with people's homes and businesses by cutting too far, too fast," the shadow Environment Secretary, Mary Creagh, said.
The flooding threat comes mainly from the more intense rainfall predicted in a warmer atmosphere.
"What the climate projections show, especially in winter, is significantly more precipitation, but also more heavy precipitation," Sir Bob said.
Such cloudbursts can cause river flooding, but also the new phenomenon of surface water flooding in towns when volumes of rainwater are too big for drainage systems to deal with.
Both of these happened in the summer of 2007, which was Britain's wettest.
Sir Bob said the current risk assessment was based on modelling of river flooding and coastal flooding, which will be made worse by rises in sea-level.
But it does not include the risk from surface water flooding, which is still being researched.
Summertime blues: The washout of 2007
If we want to get a feel for what the future may hold, in terms of flooding, we should look back at the washout summer of 2007.
This was the wettest summer recorded in Britain since rainfall records began in 1766.
It was characterised not only by incessant rain, but especially by two stupendous downpours, the first coming on 24 June in Yorkshire, and the second on 19 July centred on the valley of the River Severn.
The former displayed the new phenomenon of surface water flooding, when the drainage in towns such as Hull and Doncaster simply could not cope; the latter downpour led the Severn to burst its banks and turned the town of Tewkesbury into an island.
I drove through the July downpour; it was the heaviest rainfall I have ever experienced in my life, including the Amazon in the rainy season.
Michael mccarthy |
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Climate- 2011 a record breaking year for extreme weather
Updated: 24 Jan 2012
2011 a record-breaking year for extreme weather: US
By Timothy A. Clary | AFP – Thu, Jan 19, 2012
Last year broke records for extreme weather in the United States, with 14 events each causing at least a billion dollars in damage, US authorities said on Thursday.
Also, 2011 marked 35 years in a row that global temperatures have been warmer than average, according to data released by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
The NOAA report added two events to the previous toll of 12 disasters last year that cost a billion dollars or more -- Tropical Storm Lee which assailed the Gulf Coast in September and a spate of tornadoes, hail and high wind that hit the Midwest in July.
Twenty-one people died due to Tropical Storm Lee and two from the Midwest outbreak.
Kathryn Sullivan, assistant secretary of commerce for environmental observation and prediction and deputy NOAA administrator, described 2011 as an "extraordinary year."
"It was extraordinary regarding major weather and climate disasters in particular in our country, from tornadoes to droughts to floods and extreme storms," she told reporters.
"America endured an unusually large number of extreme events causing damages totaling more than $55 billion dollars."
Sullivan said a series of factors contributed to the high costs of bad weather, including that there are more "people and infrastructure in harm's way."
The US government also has more sophisticated radars, satellites and land-based tools to track weather events than it did in the past.
"NOAA is keeper of the long term climate record for the nation, this year the physical record also indicated a large extent of climate and weather extremes," she added.
Separately, the US space agency NASA announced that 2011 was the ninth warmest year on record since 1880 in global average surface temperature, with nine of the 10 warmest years in history taking place since 2000.
Despite the ocean-cooling influence of the weather phenomenon known as La Nina in the Pacific, the average global temperature last year was 0.92 degrees Fahrenheit (0.51 Celsius) warmer than the mid-20th century baseline.
"We know the planet is absorbing more energy than it is emitting," said NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies director James Hansen.
"So we are continuing to see a trend toward higher temperatures. Even with the cooling effects of a strong La Nina influence and low solar activity for the past several years, 2011 was one of the 10 warmest years on record."
Hansen said that with the anticipated return of El Nino and a coming increase in solar activity, temperatures are likely to peak further in the coming years.
"It's always dangerous to make predictions about El Nino, but it's safe to say we'll see one in the next three years," Hansen said.
"It won't take a very strong El Nino to push temperatures above 2010," which tied with 2005 as the warmest year on record.
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Climate- England's Rivers are drying up
Updated: 23 Jan 2012
Urgent action needed to prevent England's rivers drying up
New report by Environment Agency says
river levels may fall by 80% as a result of climate change and the growing population
Robin McKie
• The Observer, Sunday 22 January 2012
The Derwent, at Borrowdale in Cumbria.
Britain's rivers are drying up. Unless emergency measures are adopted, some of our finest waterways could be reduced to trickles over the next few decades.
This is the stark warning of an Environment Agency study into the predicted impact of climate change on the flow of rivers in England and Wales by 2050. In some cases, the agency warns, river levels in summer could drop by 80%.
Britain's cool green waters will be transformed into puddles of warm, stagnant mud.
Nor will the worst effects be experienced in the south-east of England – even though UK temperatures will reach their highest in that part of the country as global warming reaches across the British isles.
Rivers in the north-west of England, such as the Derwent in Cumbria, are also at risk.
The implications for wildlife, housing, business and tourism are extremely serious, adds the study.
"The problem is not just that average summer temperatures could rise by two or three degrees in Britain over the coming decades," said Trevor Bishop, the head of water resources at the Environment Agency.
"It is also forecast that the population of England and Wales is likely to rise by more than 9 million.
That will only add to the burden that we are placing on our water supplies."
The study – The Case for Change: Current and Future Availability – is the second river report prepared by the agency. A previous version used less precise estimates of the likely impact of climate change.
The new report uses more up-to-date figures and is more precise in its forecasts, says the agency.
In its analysis, the report identifies the twin dangers of climate change and increased population as threats to the water supply.
The former is expected to bring warmer and drier summer weather, particularly to the south-east of England, leading to the drying up of rivers and reservoirs.
The second factor, increased population, will produce a jump in demand for water from them.
This twin assault on the nation's water system could have a devastating impact on its ecology.
"Important habitats could be lost," states the report.
"Fish species such as Atlantic salmon and brown trout, which need cold water to thrive, may struggle to survive.
While plants and animals decline in some parts of England and Wales, they are likely to become more prevalent in other areas out-competing species and habitats local to the area."
The impact on fish populations would also have an effect on other species.
Otters and sea eagles, which have made successful returns to waterways in recent years, would suffer as fish stocks dropped, for example.
Many plant species that rely on plentiful supplies of water would also be badly affected.
The agency's analysis suggests that urgent action is needed. "However, our understanding of the water needs of our ecosystem is still developing," adds the report.
"Climate change will create a new level of complexity on top of our current understanding that we have only just begun to tackle."
The report studies a number of scenarios, some less severe.
Yet all indicate that action will be needed and that measures will be required sooner rather than later.
Significant changes will have to be introduced to halt the lavish amounts of water that are used, and often wasted, by people – although one encouraging sign was identified by Bishop.
"For the past hundred years or so, the average amount of water used by each person in England and Wales has steadily increased.
However, that rise has now stopped and for the first time it has started to decline – slightly."
A key factor in halting our increased use of water has been the introduction of domestic water meters.
"When one is fitted, water usage drops by an average of 12.5% in a household," Bishop added.
"People become aware they have left on taps or hose pipes and so they switch them off."
Around 37% of households are now fitted with water meters, and the figure is expected to rise to about 50% by 2015, cutting even further the average amount used by each person to reduce the strain on our rivers and reservoirs.
Currently, each person uses, on average, about 160 litres (35 gallons) a day – around a third for toilet flushing, a third for washing and bathing, a small amount for food and drink – and the rest for recreational activities, in particular gardening.
The recent white paper, Water for Life, revealed that the government is now committed to reducing that figure to 130 litres.
But this will not be enough to avert the crisis brought about by the double whammy of global warming and the projected rise in the population.
"We have turned the corner but only just," said Bishop.
"We need to adopt some really radical measures."
These could include the use of desalination plants that transform seawater into drinking water.
These use considerable amounts of energy, however, and would only be worth using when water levels become dangerously low.
Similarly, the re-use of effluent water, after it had been treated may also be considered.
In addition, the government may allow water companies to introduce higher charges in summer and at times of drought. |
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Climate-2011 second warmest and ? driest in Lincolnshire
Updated: 31 Dec 2011
2011 was UK's second warmest year on record
The year had an average temperature of 9.62C, beaten only by 2006's record of 9.73C, according to the Met Office
Press Association
guardian.co.uk,
Brighton beach on 1 October 2011 – the hottest October day on record in the UK. Photograph: Peter Macdiarmid/Getty Images
2011 has been the second warmest year on record for the UK, according to the Met Office.
It said provisional figures show that only 2006, with an average temperature of 9.73C (49.5F) was warmer than 2011's average temperature of 9.62C.
Despite this year seeing high temperatures for long periods – including the warmest April and spring on record, the second warmest autumn and the warmest October day – early figures suggest we are ending 2011 with a "close to average" December.
John Prior, the national climate manager at the Met Office, said: "While it may have felt mild for many so far this December, temperatures overall have been close to what we would expect.
"It may be that the stark change from last year, which was the coldest December on record for the UK, has led many to think it has been unseasonably warm."
All bar one of the top 10 warmest years on record have occurred since 1997 and all the UK's top seven warmest years happened in the past decade.
The warmest temperature recorded this year – 33.1C on 27 June at Gravesend in Kent – was the highest recorded in the UK for five years.
But this was one of just a few hot days in a rather cool summer which was bookended by the warm spring and autumn.
Apart from January, the only months that had below-average temperatures were June, July and August.
Gravesend was again the location for the warmest October temperature ever, when 29.9C was recorded on 1 October, beating the previous record of 29.4C at March in Cambridgeshire on the same day in 1985.
The warm autumn especially seemed to have a marked impact on flora and fauna.
The coldest temperature was -13C at Altnaharra in the Scottish Highlands on 8 January, while the strongest gust of wind was 165mph, recorded at the summit of the Cairngorms on 8 December.
Globally 2011 was the 11th warmest year on record. La Niña – a weather system in the Pacific that brings cooler water to the surface – pushed down the global average, meaning this year was cooler than 2010, which broke weather records around the world.
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Climate - Farming and Food - Its all according to the weather
Updated: 29 Dec 2011
Britain's topsy-turvy weather means vegetables arrive three months early
(and there could be shortages in Spring)
By Tamara Cohen
Last updated at 8:03 PM on 28th December 2011
Bumper crops of vegetables are arriving months too early in the latest saga of this year’s topsy-turvy weather.
Farmers say they are harvesting cabbages, sprouts broccoli and cauliflowers up to three months earlier than usual and some fear they could see shortages in the Spring.
Yesterday forecasters predicted temperatures could reach 14C on New Year’s Eve – great for outdoor revellers - in what would be one of the most unusual weather events in years.
Unexpected rise: Farmers are tending to crops that are reaping ahead of schedule
After a cool day today (Thurs) with strong winds and some showers, a stretch of mild weather will begin tomorrow (Fri) and continue into the first week of 2012.
At Riverford Farm near Totnes in Devon, which supplies 40,000 households with vegetables every week, savoy cabbages are already so big they have burst of out their boxes and between 15 and 20 per cent of the crop had to be ploughed back into the ground.
Harvest manager Ed Scott said without a cold snap which allows leeks and cabbages to ‘hibernate’ and start growing again in February or March, they had just carried on.
He said: ‘This crop has become so confused by the comparatively warm conditions that as well as maturing well ahead of schedule, a fair number of the plants are actually flowering.
‘This should not be happening until February and they’ve been blooming through December, a full three months early.
‘Our concern now is whether or not these crops will hold till we can pick them.
I never thought I’d say this, especially after last year’s brutal winter, but bring on the snow and ice!’
Cornish farmers are predicting a cauliflower shortage after an early crop.
Philip Pryor, a grower near Truro in Cornwall, said that the warm weather had caused a glut and a fall in prices, and said if the weather does not return to normal ‘volumes are not going to be there for what is required.’
Last year’s freezing winter saw temperatures reach -7C and vegetable crops frozen into the ground.
The National Farmers Union played down reports of shortages and said the early crops had been seen in the south west of England but were ‘not a national picture’.
A spokeswoman said: ‘This has not been the case all over the country, and although the warm weather has made the seasons move around a bit, we are not going to see any empty supermarket shelves.
We are likely to see the Spring crops arrive earlier than usual too.’
The warm spell which began in late September has hardly abated with temperatures reaching a Boxing Day high of 15.5C (60F) in Aberdeenshire – the average daytime temperature for June.
Both cabbage, left and cauliflower fields have been benefiting from warmer climates
Gardeners claimed to have seen snowdrops, which usually appear in February, and even daffodils blooming early in Devon and Buckinghamshire over Christmas.
Sacha Hubbard of Hill House Plant Nursery, Ashburton, Devon wrote on Twitter: ‘A daffodil is in flower - not a usual Christmas event at all!’.
Yesterday it was a cool 10C in the south and just 8C with gale force winds in the north, which saw a lorry overturn in the centre of Newcastle-upon-Tyne as gusts reached speeds of 65mph.
Motorists were urged to take extra care in exposed and coastal areas as the same brisk, chilly weather is predicted today (Thurs) with wind speeds reaching around 50mph in the north-east, and further west in Cheshire and Snowdonia.
But the rest of the country will have a dry day.
From Friday temperatures will pick up everywhere to as high as 11C in the north and 13C in the south with the possibility of 14C in the south-east.
New Year’s Eve is set to be a mild night going into a dry and bright start to 2012.
A Met Office spokesman said: ‘Temperatures are slightly above average but the windy weather means it doesn’t feel like it yet, but it will warm up again from Friday and New Year’s Eve will be particularly mild.’
‘The first week or so of January is expected to be relatively mild but unsettled, with cloudy periods with some rain interspersed with colder, clearer and more showery weather.’ |
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Climate- Change - When I'm dead and gone
Updated: 20 Dec 2011
Earth in balmy 2080
05 December 2011 by Michael Marshall
New Scientist
Editorial: "Durban climate summit must accept degrees of responsibility"
It's 2080. Global emissions peaked decades ago, too late to keep temperatures from rising more than 2 °C above preindustrial levels. The shift in climate has changed the world.
As temperatures climbed by 2 °C, effects were felt first in poor and vulnerable regions like sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia. Extreme weather events - droughts, floods and hurricanes - became more common and severe. Vulnerable nations had a stark choice: adapt or face millions of deaths.
At huge financial cost, society has adapted.
We cannot say for sure what kind of a home Earth will offer in 2080, but averages made across thousands of model runs help paint a picture of what a 2 °C warmer world would look like.
Read more: "Warmer world is the challenge of a generation"
One key difference will be the increase in extreme weather events. The good news is that with investment, we can adapt to some of this, says Saleemul Huq of the International Institute for Environment and Development. In 1991, a massive cyclone struck Bangladesh, killing 130,000 people.
Afterwards, the country built shelters and early warning systems.
When the equally powerful cyclone Sidr struck in 2007, the death toll was reduced to less than one-tenth of that. "Better preparation can bring down the casualty rates," Huq says.
But above 2 °C, impacts are increasingly felt worldwide. The relative wealth of Europe and North America means they can build better defences and suffer far fewer deaths, but economic costs will be severe.
A warmer climate will be bad news for global agriculture, with regional winners and losers, says Andrew Challinor of the University of Leeds, UK.
Agronomists are busy designing new varieties of staple crops like rice and wheat able to survive more frequent heatwaves and droughts, and organisations like the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research are helping farmers find out what works for them.
Despite such efforts, crops will fail more often (Environmental Research Letters, DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/5/3/034012), probably leading to food-price spikes.
Cases of health problems ranging from heatstroke to infectious diseases will also increase. Models show tropical diseases will move into higher latitudes and altitudes with warming, though some believe that better public health in many affected regions will stave off the worst.
The degree of sea-level rise is a big uncertainty, but we know it lags behind temperature increases so the worst of those consequences probably will not have kicked in even by 2080. Scientists are also split on the link between temperature and human conflict. Some believe civil unrest will rise as the climate becomes harsher.
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Climate- Winter Water Wanted
Updated: 20 Dec 2011
UK gets water shortage warning
Much of England and Wales could face serious water shortages next year unless there is significant rainfall over the winter months, the Environment Agency warned.
The recent wet weather has done little to replenish water levels in rivers and reservoirs already low after one of the driest periods on record.
Six water companies have already initiated drought management plans to ensure supplies to customers remain unaffected.
The Environment Agency says the situation will not improve unless there is 120% of the average rainfall between now and next April.
Barbara Young, the Agency's chief executive, said: "We should not become complacent just because we have had heavy rainfall in the last few days.
"England and Wales has had an exceptionally dry summer and autumn and while water supplies have provided us throughout this period and supplies are secure for the coming winter, unless we receive higher than average rainfall between now and March we could be faced with water restrictions and serious water shortages in 2004."
The period from February until now has been the second driest in England and Wales since 1921.
The worst hit region is the South East where over the past three months some parts have seen as little as 30% of their average rainfall leaving many rivers flowing at only 20% of normal for the time of year.
The Environment Agency recently granted Thames Water two drought permits, allowing it to increase abstraction from the River Thames and a groundwater source for the next four months.
Decisions are awaited on applications for permits from United Utilities and South East Water, while Southern Water, Severn Trent, and Welsh Water are all expected to ask for permits. Among the Agency's tips for saving water are to replace worn tap washers to prevent dripping, use the minimum amount of water for boiling kettles and saucepans, select half-load programmes on dishwashers and washing machines wherever possible, and wash vegetables in a bowl rather than under a running tap.
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-202817/UK-gets-water-shortage-warning.html#ixzz1h3Yu19yI
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Climate- Weather- A Mild Christmas and Unsettled New Year
Updated: 20 Dec 2011
United Kingdom
Warnings
Tuesday 20 December Published at 00:46
UK Warnings
Weather Warning
2011-12-20 00:46:50
Tuesday 20th December
The Met Office has issued a YELLOW warning of ICE, covering Scotland and parts of northern England.
Snowfall and wintry showers falling onto cold ground will bring a risk of icy conditions. The risk will then increase overnight as temperatures fall and untreated wet surfaces freeze.
Valid from 1400 on Monday 19th until 1200 on Tuesday 20th.
Flood Warning
2011-12-20 00:46:38
Tuesday 20th December
There are no flood warnings in force in the United Kingdom.
Further updates will appear here.
About the Met Office Weather Warnings
BBC Weather carries two types of weather warnings issued by the Met Office: Warnings and Early Warnings.
Warnings will be issued when severe weather is expected within the next 24 hours.
Early Warnings will be issued more than 24 hours ahead of severe weather.
There are three categories of event Red, Amber and Yellow - the most severe is Red.
A Warning and an Early Warning of the same colour have the same severity but are forecast to arrive at different times. Thus, the difference between a Red Warning and a Red Early Warning is the lead time of the event.
When a warning is in force, full information can be found at Met Office Weather Warnings
About the Environment Agency Flood Warnings
The flood warnings are issued by the Environment Agency and the Scottish Environment Protection Agency and sent to the BBC Weather Centre, we then issue a compendium of warnings based on the latest information available. When severe flood warnings are issued they will also be highlighted on TV broadcasts.
Find out more about Flood Warnings
There are a number of ways you find out whether your area is at risk from flooding. Both the Environment Agency (for England and Wales) and the Scottish Environment Protection Agency update their warnings 24 hours a day via the Floodline number.
Floodline - 0845 988 1188
Monthly Outlook
Monday 19 December Published at 10:00
Monthly Outlook
Summary
A mild Christmas and unsettled New Year
This week has the shortest day of the year but even as the days draw out over the next few weeks, we typically expect the temperatures to keep falling.
Our weather is bucking this trend at the moment as, after the recent cold weather, things are taking a milder turn.
Anyone hoping for a white Christmas may be disappointed!
Over the next month the south of the UK will see some quite settled weather at times, but in the north wind and rain is often on the cards.
Monday 19 December—Sunday 25 December
Mild and sometime wild
After the recent cold weather, this week brings a rather milder picture, particularly mid-week when some of us could see the dizzying heights of the early teens!
Monday starts on a chilly note with frost and ice for many places at first, particularly in southeast Scotland.
Rain and strengthening winds moving in from the west will give everyone a spell of rain during the day and bring snow to Scotland.
Tuesday looks set to be one of the quietest days of the week.
Hazy sunshine is forecast for much of the day although rain will move in later.
It should be much milder on Wednesday, however this will cause the snow across Scotland to thaw quite rapidly and could lead to some flooding problems.
Further heavy rain and strong winds could exacerbate the problem.
A damp and cloudy day in store for western areas, but drier with the odd bright spell in the east.
Thursday won't feel very wintry as the mild weather continues.
Further rain and drizzle is forecast in the west with the best of any brightness in eastern counties of England. Northwest Scotland and parts of Northern Ireland could have a rather wet day.
Temperatures take a tumble towards the end of the week as Friday brings more rain and showers. Those numbers creeping back up again by the weekend, making a white Christmas look unlikely!
Monday 26 December—Sunday 1 January
A fight starts on Boxing Day
As we head into Boxing Day we start to see a struggle between an unsettled, wet and windy set-up to the north and high pressure trying to build to the south.
So for the northern half of the UK we can expect strong or gale force winds at times and some spells of heavy or prolonged rain.
This mobile weather pattern will act to keep things mild and often hold frost at bay.
For southern areas, we have a different story with a drier and less windy outlook but with a greater risk of frost forming by night.
Monday 2 January—Sunday 15 January
New year, new weather pattern?
Little change in the weather for the northern half of the UK through the beginning of the new year.
However there will be a different outlook for the south.
The unsettled theme already dominating the north will extend across the rest of the country.
This will lead periods of wind and rain for all but with the north of the UK once again in line for the lion's share.
Snow may well feature in the forecast at times too, chiefly across northern hills.
On the whole this unsettled theme will keep the temperatures on the mild side. Some colder spells are quite likely, bringing the risk of frost and fog at times.
The east will be favoured with the best of the crisp, bright winter weather.
Next week
Statistically, January has the lowest daytime temperatures of any month but how cold will it be for the rest of January 2012?
Monthly forecasting
The weather beyond about a week ahead stretches even the most experienced weather forecaster. Complex numerical weather forecast models from the Met Office and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) are run many times for the month (and season) ahead to build up a picture of the likelihood of different weather types affecting the UK.
Next update at 10:00, Monday 26 December
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Climate- Is Your Home Prepared for Winter ?
Updated: 15 Dec 2011
Home insurance is there to give you peace of mind in case of a claim, but we can't repay the time, effort and stress that winter weather damage to your home may cause you and your family.
So here are some simple tips to help protect your home this winter.
First things first
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During a cold snap, leave the heating permanently on low. 15 degrees is about right.
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Make sure all your pipes are insulated, in and outdoors.
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Check your loft insulation's thick enough.
It should be around 10 inches deep.
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If your water tank is in the loft, this should be insulated as well.
Don't insulate the bottom or the floor right underneath it.
A bit of warm air getting through will help stop it freezing.
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Next up, check and repair
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Find your main stopcock and make sure that you can turn it on and off.
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If you've got a dripping tap, fix it.
Remember to check all your outside taps, too.
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Remove loose or overhanging tree branches from your property to prevent damage from wind and snow. You may need to speak to your Local Authority to see if any trees are protected.
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Check for any damage to chimneys, loose roof tiles or unsecured TV aerials.
Or get a professional in to help. Good home maintenance reduces the risk of more damage occurring during bad weather.
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Clean out gutters to prevent rainwater overflowing and getting into plasterwork and decorations.
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Going away?
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If you're away from home for a few days keep the heating on at a low level – about 15 degrees - throughout.
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Leave the loft door open.
Warm air will circulate up to the roof, and should help stop things freezing.
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If you're away for a longer period of time, it might be worth draining the pipes down completely.
Turn off the mains and the stopcocks.
Then run the taps and flush the loos till all the water's gone.
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Also, asking a friend or family member to check your home every so often while you're away can be a good idea.
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If you're going away for more than 30 days, call your Insurance Co.. If you don't, it might affect your policy.
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If a cold spell is on its way, there are a few simple actions you can take to help prevent the
pipes in your home from freezing and causing damage.
How to help insulate and protect your home
Prepare pipes for icy weather by insulating
them with lagging. Don’t forget the corners.
Make sure you’ve lagged any pipes you might
have outside.
Check to make sure your loft insulation is
thick enough. It should be around 10 inches
deep. Also, make sure that your water tank is
covered - but not underneath, so warm air can
circulate.
1 Step one
Find your main stopcock and make sure that
you can turn it on and off.
2 Step two
If you have any taps that have a tendency to
drip, now's the time to fix them. This will help
prevent problems when the wintery weather
comes.
And don't forget any taps that are
outside. Also, check to make sure your boiler
has been serviced by a Gas Safe professional,
preferably in the summer to give you enough
time to have any work done before the cold
weather sets in.
3 Step three
4
Try and insulate your home – fit draught
proofing to any gaps in windows or doors and
make sure wall cavities are well insulated.
Step four
5
If you’re away from home for a few days keep
the heating on at a low level – about 15
degrees - throughout.
If you’re away for a
longer period of time it might be wise and
more cost effective to shut down the system
completely, turn off all the mains, stopcocks
and drain down pipes, toilets and radiators.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
If the pipes in your home have frozen, just follow these quick steps to help prevent or limit any
damage.
What to do if your pipes have frozen
Ok. First things first – turn the water off, drain
the system and leave the taps open.
1 Step one
A good way to thaw out frozen pipes is to use
a hairdryer. Just run the hairdryer up and
down the pipes a section at a time. If you’ve
found a leak, put something underneath to
collect water. Only use a hairdryer when safe
to - being very careful if near water. If the pipe
is damaged, the water could spray up and
cause electrocution.
2 Step two
If you'd rather, you could use a hot water bottle
tied to the pipes with a towel. But whatever you
do, don't use a naked flame like a blow torch to
thaw your pipes as you could cause some
serious damage.
3 Step three
4
If your pipes thaw and they don’t seem to be
damaged, slowly open your stopcock until
water starts running through the taps again.
Then you can turn your taps off. |
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Climate- Hardy Fuschias-Planting- Winter Care and Pruning
Updated: 11 Dec 2011
Hardy Fuchsias
There are many types of fuchsias to choose from.
Those that are recommended to be planted in the garden and left there during the winter months are listed as Hardies. For fuchsia plants to qualify under this heading, stringent tests must be carried out.
Different varieties are distributed all over the British Isles and cultivated under normal conditions for several years. They are left exposed to the elements during the winter months.
If after a predetermined time these plants manage to survive even the coldest climate, they are then categorised as Hardies.
The British Fuchsia Society has an official list of fuchsia plants that are capable of being over wintered in the garden (see below).
It would be advisable to only select from these if you wish to grow fuchsias in the garden and leave them there all the year round.
Planting & Winter Care
After choosing an ideal location and digging the hole for the selected plant, sprinkle a light dressing of an organic fertilizer (e.g. bonemeal) over the excavated soil and then gently fork it in.
Remove the pot before planting.
This may sound ridiculous, but it is not unknown for fuchsias to have been planted with the pot left in situ. Place a liberal amount of garden compost or similar material in the bottom of the hole.
When planting hardy fuchsias into the garden, it is advisable to plant them slightly deeper than the depth of the pot (see diagram below).
The line depicts the ground level.
Planting at this depth not only has the benefit of protecting the roots from severe frost, but also the branches below ground level will usually produce extra root growth.
After positioning the plant at the suggested level, replace the soil, (with the added fertilizer) ensuring it is in contact with all the root system.
Gently firm the soil around the plant and insert a label with the name of the fuchsia. Lastly, apply adequate water and keep the soil moist until the plant is well established.
Planting is best completed before the end of August, thus allowing it time to become acclimatised to the elements before winter arrives.
As an extra precaution, a mulch of well rotted garden compost or any similar material spread copiously around the plant in the autumn should provide extra root protection during the winter.
Pruning
It is an advantage to retain the branches intact on the plants during the winter.
This not only prevents any disease entering the wounded stems caused by late pruning, but the extra cover will also help to give them a little protection during the very cold months.
The best time to prune outdoor fuchsias is during early spring after the new shoots appear.
Cut back every branch just above a pair of leaf buds to within three or four inches from the surface of the ground.
This type of hard pruning will also induce new growth to sprout from below ground level.
Repeat this procedure every year.
Do not prune any outdoor fuchsias until you are sure that all frosts are finished |
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Climate - The Planet is Dying -sign the petition
Updated: 07 Dec 2011
The planet is dying
Tuesday, 6 December, 2011 11:30
Dear friends,
Our planet is dying and big oil companies have key nations in their pockets, blocking any chance of a climate treaty. We have 4 days till UN talks end -- let's call on the EU, Brazil and China to lead us towards a deal to save the planet! Click here to sign the urgent petition:
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Our oceans are dying, our air changing, and our forests and grasslands turning to deserts.
From fish and plants to wildlife to human beings, we are killing the planet that sustains us, and fast.
There is one single greatest cause of this destruction of the natural world -- climate change, and in the next 4 days, we have a chance to stop it.
The UN treaty on climate change -- our best hope for action -- expires next year, but a dirty and greedy US-led coalition of oil-captured countries is trying to kill it forever.
It's staggeringly difficult to believe, but they are trading short term profits for the survival of our natural world.
The EU, Brazil and China are all on the fence -- they are not slaves to oil companies the way the US is, but they need to hear a massive call to action from people before they really lead financially and politically to save the UN treaty.
The world is gathered at the climate summit for the next 4 days to make the big decision.
Let's send our leaders a massive call to stand up to big oil and save the planet -- an Avaaz team at the summit will deliver our call directly: http://www.avaaz.org/en/the_planet_is_dying/?vl Things are becoming desperate -- all over our planet extreme weather continues to smash records, leaving millions homeless and without food or shelter.
We’re rapidly reaching our point of no return to stop runaway climate change -- we only have until 2015 to start making drastic reductions to our carbon pollution.
Yet despite this very real urgency, the world has failed to mobilise against the fossil fuel captured democracy of the US.
Not only content with wrecking the Copenhagen talks and the Kyoto protocol, they are now building a coalition of climate treaty killers to put the final nail in the coffin of international negotiations in Africa.
Our only hope to turn things around lies with Europe, Brazil and China -- they can make a deal happen, but they need to do it together, and that’s where we come in. Europe is tired, it’s fought long and hard on climate and needs a public boost.
China has already agreed to binding commitments, is sensitive to its international reputation, and could lead further if we give it an encouraging push.
And Brazil is hosting next year's earth summit -- making them eager to set the world up for climate success.
Let’s build a giant global call to bring our champions together and build a green dream team. Sign the petition now and forward this email: http://www.avaaz.org/en/the_planet_is_dying/?vl The crazy focus on short term profits that motivates countries to stall and scuttle action on a climate crisis that literally threatens the survival of all of us cannot be tolerated.
Fortunately, our movement has the power to intervene in this process and demand change.
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Climate-The obscene demand in the search for profits is heating up the world by up to 4C
Updated: 07 Dec 2011
Warmer world is the challenge of a generation
Updated 14:33 06 December 2011 by Michael Marshall and Catherine Brahic
New Scientist
The chance to prevent the world warming by 2 °C has gone,
but that's no reason to give up fighting for a greener future
Editorial: "Durban climate summit must accept degrees of responsibility"
AS THE latest round of United Nations climate negotiations began in Durban, South Africa, on Monday, expectations could scarcely have been lower. A globally binding deal is further away than ever.
That makes considerable warming from climate change inevitable.
In the last few weeks major reports by the International Energy Agency and the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) have concluded that we can still meet the UN's target of limiting warming to 2 °C above preindustrial levels.
But climate scientists are far less optimistic.
Many say the chance to avoid a 2 °C rise has been and gone, and we must now prepare for the damage to come.
To have a fair chance of keeping below 2 °C, global emissions would have to peak by 2020 or so before falling. There's no sign of that: they made their biggest-ever leap in 2010.
Many countries promised to cut their emissions at the 2009 UN climate summit in Copenhagen, Denmark, but modelling carried out by climate consultancy Ecofys, based in the Netherlands, shows that even if those cuts were implemented in full we would still see 3.5 °C of warming by 2100.
Read more: "Earth in balmy 2080"
To meet the 2 °C target, even bigger cuts are needed.
According to UNEP, nations must emit the equivalent of no more than 44 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide each year by 2020, but current pledges are 6 to 12 gigatonnes short.
A UNEP report published last week says we can bridge this "emissions gap" by combining faster uptake of renewable energy, improved energy efficiency, and cuts to other greenhouse gases.
A second UNEP report points out that it is much easier to cut short-lived greenhouse gases like methane, and fine atmospheric particles like soot from inefficient stoves.
Cutting these emissions could keep the thermostat from rising by 2 °C until the middle of the century, buying us time to deal with CO2.
It is the inertia in our society that is the problem, says the International Energy Agency in its 2011 World Energy Outlook report.
The lifespan of existing power plants and factories commits us to 80 per cent of the total emissions that will take us to 2 °C.
Construction over the next five years commits us to the rest, so unless we switch our investments from fossil fuels to low-carbon technologies within five years, 2 °C of warming is inevitable.
The reality is that the 2 °C target is technically and economically feasible, but politically impossible.
Saleemul Huq of the International Institute for Environment and Development says that countries would have to go to a war footing to do it.
He compares the situation to the second world war, when nations like the UK transformed their economies to deal with an overwhelming threat.
This single-minded commitment can work miracles, but no country has any such plans.
The UK's secretary of state for energy and climate change, Chris Huhne, says the deadline for an international deal is 2015.
Other countries, like the US and India, want to delay even discussing a deal until then, leaving scant time to the desired emissions peak in 2020.
And as Durban talks got under way this week, Canada announced it would not be participating in any successor to the Kyoto protocol.
What should we do if we cannot hit emissions targets?
First, do not give up on cutting emissions, says Brian Hoskins of Imperial College London. We don't fully understand the climate, so we might emit more than is currently deemed "safe" and stay under 2 °C by sheer luck.
And don't change the 2 °C target. It's too early, says Corrine Le Quéré, director of the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research in the UK. The next IPCC report, due in 2013, could show that society can cope with a warmer world (see "Welcome to a world warmed by 2 °C").
If it does, a small increment in the target might be justifiable, she says, but until then shifting goalposts would be premature and send the wrong message.
"I haven't seen anything to suggest that 2 °C is less dangerous now than it was when it was adopted," Le Quéré says.
At all costs, Hoskins adds, we must avoid 4 °C.
Indeed, this could wipe out the Amazon rainforest and halt the Asian monsoon.
Finally, some form of geoengineering may be necessary.
"We are going to have to look at CO2 removal," says Tim Lenton of the University of Exeter, UK.
Trees are already being planted to act as carbon sinks, and prototype technologies exist for sucking CO2 from the atmosphere.
Hoskins says they could be essential later in the century to keep temperatures down.
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Climate- China emits more Carbon Dioxide than the US but is also more committed to cuts
Updated: 07 Dec 2011
China's consumers emit more than US for the first time
18:00 04 December 2011 by Michael Marshall
New Scientist
In the inglorious race to warm the planet, developing countries are catching up.
For the first time, China's consumers are responsible for more carbon dioxide emissions than their US counterparts are – and consumption in developing countries now generates more carbon dioxide than that in developed countries.
Until recently the most significant trend was rich nations' practice of effectively exporting their emissions.
They do this by shutting down their own factories and importing goods from China or other emerging economies.
In 2008, for instance, one-third of China's domestic emissions came from the manufacture of goods for export, which means that consumers in rich countries were ultimately to blame for those emissions.
That situation is now changing, says Glen Peters of the Center for International Climate and Environmental Research – Oslo, in Norway.
Consumers in developing countries – those not included in annex B to the Kyoto protocol – released more CO2 than consumers in developed countries.
As a leading emerging economy, China's emissions grew 10.4 per cent last year. "The developing countries' excuses are starting to drop away," says Peters.
Committed to cuts
That's not the full story, however, says John Moore of Beijing Normal University in China.
There are far more developing countries than developed countries, and China's high emissions are largely a product of its huge population, he says.
This means that consumption per person in China is still far lower than in the US.
Moreover, Moore also says China has shown far more commitment to cutting emissions than most developed countries: it puts up a new wind turbine every hour on average, for instance.
Pressure on local officials to meet emissions targets is so intense that last year Anping county temporarily cut power to homes and public facilities, including traffic lights, to do so.
"If China makes a promise to cut emissions, they will do it," Moore says.
Ultimately, both developed and developing countries will have to slash their emissions dramatically if we are to limit climate change to a manageable level.
"It's pointless to keep blaming each other," Moore says.
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Climate- A Warmer world brings different problems
Updated: 02 Dec 2011
Warmer world is the challenge of a generation
Updated 14:27 01 December 2011 by Michael Marshall and Catherine Brahic
New Scientist
The chance to prevent the world warming by 2 °C has gone, but that's no reason to give up fighting for a greener future
Editorial: "Durban climate summit must accept degrees of responsibility"
AS THE latest round of United Nations climate negotiations began in Durban, South Africa, on Monday, expectations could scarcely have been lower.
A globally binding deal is further away than ever.
That makes considerable warming from climate change inevitable.
In the last few weeks major reports by the International Energy Agency and the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) have concluded that we can still meet the UN's target of limiting warming to 2 °C above preindustrial levels.
But climate scientists are far less optimistic.
Many say the chance to avoid a 2 °C rise has been and gone, and we must now prepare for the damage to come.
To have a fair chance of keeping below 2 °C, global emissions would have to peak by 2020 or so before falling. There's no sign of that:
they made their biggest-ever leap in 2010.
Many countries promised to cut their emissions at the 2009 UN climate summit in Copenhagen, Denmark, but modelling carried out by climate consultancy Ecofys, based in the Netherlands, shows that even if those cuts were implemented in full we would still see 3.5 °C of warming by 2100.
Read more: "Earth in balmy 2080"
To meet the 2 °C target, even bigger cuts are needed.
According to UNEP, nations must emit the equivalent of no more than 44 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide each year by 2020, but current pledges are 6 to 12 gigatonnes short.
A UNEP report published last week says we can bridge this "emissions gap" by combining faster uptake of renewable energy, improved energy efficiency, and cuts to other greenhouse gases.
A second UNEP report points out that it is much easier to cut short-lived greenhouse gases like methane, and fine atmospheric particles like soot from inefficient stoves.
Cutting these emissions could keep the thermostat from rising by 2 °C until the middle of the century, buying us time to deal with CO2.
It is the inertia in our society that is the problem, says the International Energy Agency in its 2011 World Energy Outlook report. T
he lifespan of existing power plants and factories commits us to 80 per cent of the total emissions that will take us to 2 °C.
Construction over the next five years commits us to the rest, so unless we switch our investments from fossil fuels to low-carbon technologies within five years, 2 °C of warming is inevitable.
The reality is that the 2 °C target is technically and economically feasible, but politically impossible. Saleemul Huq of the International Institute for Environment and Development says that countries would have to go to a war footing to do it.
He compares the situation to the second world war, when nations like the UK transformed their economies to deal with an overwhelming threat. This single-minded commitment can work miracles, but no country has any such plans.
The UK's secretary of state for energy and climate change, Chris Huhne, says the deadline for an international deal is 2015.
Other countries, like the US and India, want to delay even discussing a deal until then, leaving scant time to the desired emissions peak in 2020.
And as Durban talks got under way this week, Canada announced it would not be participating in any successor to the Kyoto protocol.
What should we do if we cannot hit emissions targets? First, do not give up on cutting emissions, says Brian Hoskins of Imperial College London.
We don't fully understand the climate, so we might emit more than is currently deemed "safe" and stay under 2 °C by sheer luck.
And don't change the 2 °C target. It's too early, says Corrine Le Quéré, director of the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research in the UK.
The next IPCC report, due in 2013, could show that society can cope with a warmer world (see "Welcome to a world warmed by 2 °C").
If it does, a small increment in the target might be justifiable, she says, but until then shifting goalposts would be premature and send the wrong message.
"I haven't seen anything to suggest that 2 °C is less dangerous now than it was when it was adopted," Le Quéré says.
At all costs, Hoskins adds, we must avoid 4 °C. Indeed, this could wipe out the Amazon rainforest and halt the Asian monsoon.
Finally, some form of geoengineering may be necessary.
"We are going to have to look at CO2 removal," says Tim Lenton of the University of Exeter, UK.
Trees are already being planted to act as carbon sinks, and prototype technologies exist for sucking CO2 from the atmosphere.
Hoskins says they could be essential later in the century to keep temperatures down.
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Climate-Deal at Summit? No! Profit comes first again
Updated: 02 Dec 2011
Durban – your guide to the latest vital climate summit
17:38 25 November 2011 by Fred Pearce
New Scientist
Climate negotiators meet in Durban, South Africa, from Monday to discuss controls on greenhouse gas emissions.
The ostensible aim is to devise a continuation for the Kyoto protocol, which ends in December 2012.
It is two years on from the deal-that-never-was in Copenhagen, Denmark, and the global temperature is still rising.
Environment consultant Fred Pearce offers his guide to understanding what's at stake.
Will there be a deal this year?
Sadly not. American legislators won't entertain the idea of legally enforceable limits on their emissions.
The Russians and Japanese say that without the US, they are not interested.
Ditto China and India.
That leaves only Germany of the top six national emitters still in favour of a binding deal.
Even optimists don't think US politicians will be in the mood to consummate a new deal until 2016 at the earliest.
The best that can be hoped for is a "coalition of the willing" committed to a stop-gap extension of the Kyoto protocol which does not include the US.
We are facing a "lost decade" in climate talks.
Most of the US Senate barely believes in climate change, let alone doing anything about it.
Most other nations play lip service, but blame economic travails for postponing hard decisions. Some think the recession will buy us time. Not so.
Last year saw the biggest annual increase in carbon dioxide emissions ever recorded – almost 6 per cent.
This was mostly due to China, India and others burning more coal, the dirtiest fuel.
Isn't coal supposedly on the way out?
Quite the reverse.
When the new climate talks started in 2006, the world got 25 per cent of its primary energy from coal; now the proportion is 30 per cent.
Even Germany will likely burn more coal as it shuts its nuclear plants in the wake of the nuclear disaster at Japan's Fukushima Daiichi plant.
Just 2 hours' drive from Durban, South Africa feeds the coal addiction with the world's largest coal export terminal at Richards Bay.
Meanwhile, CO2 is accumulating in the atmosphere.
By 2016, concentrations will probably pass 400 parts per million, compared with 353 ppm when the climate convention was passed in Rio de Janeiro in 1992.
Is there a plan B?
There could be.
Even without a Durban protocol, some countries say they will meet voluntary national targets.
The European Union has legislated to cut emissions to 20 per cent below 1990 levels by 2020.
China, Brazil, Mexico and some others say they will reduce the "carbon intensity" of their economies – the amount of CO2 they emit per unit of GDP - though their emissions will probably continue to rise.
A few US states, led by California, plan to cap their emissions.
Some see this resorting to a voluntary approach as doomed. Others see it as the only way forward.
Durban will also see negotiations on REDD (Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation, which could deliver a system for countries and corporations with self-imposed targets to offset their emissions by investing in forest conservation.
This could kick-start a global carbon market and help create political consensus for a future deal.
But can there be a carbon market without a global deal first?
Doubtful. Without legal limits on emissions, there are no legally enforceable emissions permits to trade, so a voluntary system could be prone to collapse.
The price of carbon on the existing limited market, based around EU Kyoto protocol permits, has halved during November to below 6 euros per tonne.
Any other possibilities?
Yes. The UN Environment Programme is behind a big push to cut emissions of soot from diesel emissions, traditional cooking stoves, brick kilns and the like.
Soot, often termed black carbon, is the second biggest contributor to climate change, but is not part of the climate talks. Soot only stays in the air for a few days, so cutting emissions would have a big and immediate impact.
UNEP says banishing it could cut global warming by 0.5°C by 2030 – 0.7°C in the Arctic.
Watch out for separate talks.
Even the US might buy into this one.
Even so, the climate forecast is bad, right?
Dreadful. Nobody knows for sure, but the sober-minded International Energy Agency said this month that we have just six years to stave off 2°C of warming.
And the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change warned that such a warming would bring a big increase in many extreme weather events, from droughts and floods to killer heat waves.
So what will the crux of the Durban meeting be?
The hottest topic will probably be drumming up money for the promised $100 billion "green fund" to help poor countries adapt to climate change.
It's supposed to start in 2013.
How do you apply?
Good question. Nobody seems sure what the eligibility criteria should be.
One view is countries vulnerable to any kind of extreme weather should be entitled to cash from the fund.
Another is that the money should go to those who can show that they are threatened directly by human-made climate change. In any case, rich nations are proving very slow to put their hands in their pockets.
So what's the smart money on?
Umm. Geoengineering?
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Climate- If its snowing heavily its comforting to know you'll have a farmer right behind you
Updated: 22 Nov 2011
Farming army is ready for snow
22 November 2011 | By Olivia Midgley
Farmers Guardian
AN ARMY of farmers has been signed up to clear roads with 4x4s in preparation for severe winter weather.
Surrey County Council has enlisted 50 drivers with tractors and ploughs to clear snow-covered routes for drivers
Council cabinet member for transport and environment, Ian Lake, said: “Our 40-plus gritters and ploughs will be doing everything possible to keep Surrey moving in bad weather but they can’t treat every road in Surrey, which is why the support farmers provide is so important.
“We’ve got even more farmers working with us this year and they’ll be focusing their efforts on keeping disruption caused by ice and snow in rural areas to a minimum.”
Arable farmer Ray Simmons, of East Flexford Farm, near Wanborough, and his son Jim are ready to send four ploughs out in the Waverley and Guildford areas, including on the Hogs Back, to unclog snow-hit roads.
Mr Simmons said: “Obviously there was more snow last year than normal and we were out a lot on the roads and then clearing car parks at schools. You want to be out there early before people in vehicles crush it down and make it harder to clear.
“We keep an eye on the weather and prepare well. We make sure the tractors’ fuel tanks are full up and we keep everything under cover so we’re ready to go as soon as we’re needed because it’s not good trying to do that when there’s snow.”
Malcolm Mott, of Fairchildes Farm, Chelsham, has two ploughs ready to go out in Tandridge, covering areas around Warlingham and Oxted.
Mr Mott said: “I like to get out to shift snow before vehicles flatten it on roads. We can do six to eight hours at a time, depending on conditions. Last year was hectic because the snow drifted back on to the road from fields.”
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Climate- Its changing- the arguments are hotting up
Updated: 20 Nov 2011
UN Panel Predicts More Extreme Heat, Drought and Precipitation
POSTED BY: Bill Sweet / Fri, November 18, 2011
Contemplating the prolonged heat wave and drought that afflicted much of Texas through last summer, you would have to be an extreme climate change skeptic not to wonder whether global warming was playing a role.
Instead skeptics have preferred to focus on unseasonable winter events, like the freak snowstorm that swept the U.S. Northeast in late October or the immense record-setting blizzard that swept the Mid-Atlantic states in January last year.
Actually, both kinds of events are consistent with what we should expect with continued global warming, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reported this week.
"It is virtually certain that increases in the frequency and magnitude of warm daily temperature extremes and decreases in cold extremes will occur in the 21st century on the global scale," the report says.
"It is very likely that the length, frequency and/or intensity of warm spells, or heat waves, will increase over most land areas. . . [A] 1-in-20 year hottest day is likely to become a 1-in-2 year event by the end of the 21st century in most regions, except in the high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, where it is likely to become a 1-in-5 year event."
Further, "It is likely that the frequency of heavy precipitation or the proportion of total rainfall from heavy falls will increase in the 21st century over many areas of the globe.
This is particularly the case in the high latitudes and tropical regions, and in winter in the northern mid-latitudes." In other words, temperate regions will see more winter precipitation, including snowfall.
In more tropical zones, '[h]eavy rainfalls associated with tropical cyclones are likely to increase with continued warming," though the frequency of cyclones and hurricanes is not expected to increase as such.
Surveying weather records going back to 1950, the IPCC finds "It is very likely that there has been an overall decrease in the number of cold days and nights, and an overall increase in the number of warm days and nights, on the global scale, i.e., for most land areas with sufficient data.
It is likely that these changes have also occurred at the continental scale in North America, Europe, and Australia." Regarding rainfall, "There have been statistically significant trends in the number of heavy precipitation events in some regions.
It is likely that more of these regions have experienced increases than decreases, although there are strong regional and subregional variations in these trends."
Readers will note that because of the criticism the IPCC has cone under for not hedging its forecasts with suitable qualifiers about confidence intervals, the panel has taken special care in this report to say whether its findings and forecasts are very likely, probable, or merely possible.
This is especially so when it comes to the human contribution to global warming and its effects.
Thus, the report says: "It is likely that anthropogenic influences have led to warming of extreme daily minimum and maximum temperatures on the global scale.
There is medium confidence that anthropogenic influences have contributed to intensification of extreme precipitation on the global scale. It is likely that there has been an anthropogenic influence on increasing extreme coastal high water due to increase in mean sea level.
The uncertainties in the historical tropical cyclone records, the incomplete understanding of the physical mechanisms linking tropical cyclone metrics to climate change, and the degree of tropical cyclone variability provide only low confidence for the attribution of any detectable changes in tropical cyclone activity to anthropogenic influences."
Readers may want to consult for themselves the rather complex charts at the bottom of the IPCC documents showing how it expects the probability distributions for various types of events to shift with global warming in this century.
Summarizing the findings, Thomas Stocker, cochairman of the working group that produced the report, put it like this for the press release that accompanied the report: "For the high emissions scenario, it is likely that the frequency of hot days will increase by a factor of 10 in most regions of the world.
Likewise, heavy precipitation will occur more often, and the wind speed of tropical cyclones will increase while their number will likely remain constant or decrease |
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Climate- South East, Stand by for Stand pipes soon
Updated: 20 Nov 2011
Dry weather sparks early water warning
Autumn leaves have been falling but not the much needed rain to re-fill the region’s water resources.
As a result, South East Water is planning ahead to manage its water resources both this Winter and, crucially, ahead of next Spring and Summer, when customer demand for water will rise.
At this stage it cannot rule out drought permits, which would allow it to take more water from local rivers to fill its reservoirs, or possible water restrictions next Spring.
The last 12 months (October 2010 to October 2011) have been the driest since 1976 in the South East region, while the onset of Autumn was replaced by a late ‘Indian Summer’. October was one of the warmest months on record, according to the Met Office.
Likewise, the amount of rainfall in September was just 60% of the long term average, but was even less in October - just 30% of the long term average fell across the South East region.
Customer demand for water has increased too – the Company saw demand for water peak at 211 million litres per day in October, some 44 million litres more than the same month last year.
As a result, South East Water’s two reservoirs in Sussex – Ardingly and Arlington - are now reaching very low levels, with both just over a third full. Ardingly Reservoir is currently 34% full, while Arlington Reservoir is 33% full.
Water levels in the Company’s groundwater sources – particularly along the Seaford coast where water is drawn from chalk aquifers, and in West Kent and East Sussex, where water is drawn from sandstone aquifers - are also below average for the time of year.
Lee Dance, Head of Water Resources at South East Water, said: “The unseasonably warm, dry weather we’re continuing to experience has delayed the start of the traditional period when rainfall refills both our reservoirs and underground sources, giving them a much needed boost before next Spring and Summer.
“Our underground sources in particular are crucial as they provide 75% of all our water supplies, and rely on that rainfall to fill them up.
“We are continuing to carefully monitor the situation and are fine tuning our water supply network to move water around the Sussex area.
“These changes have helped, as have the very small amounts of rain we have had recently. But it is prudent to plan ahead and make sure we do everything we can to secure supplies for our customers next year, so that does mean having to plan for possible drought permits and water restrictions.”
While South East Water will be working hard to protect its water resources this Winter, it’s asking customers to do their bit too, by making sure any water they use is not wasted, and reporting any leaks on the company’s dedicated leakline 0333 000 3330, so they can be fixed as soon as possible. |
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Climate- A Wet Bonfire Night-Nov. 5th ? and much much more
Updated: 02 Nov 2011
Wild weather worsening due to climate change, IPCC confirms
Final draft of a report from the UN climate panel warns that weather extremes will come at a huge cost
Associated Press
guardian.co.uk,
Freakish weather disasters — from the sudden October snowstorm in the north-east US to the record floods in Thailand — are striking more often.
And global warming is likely to spawn more similar weather extremes at a huge cost, says a draft summary of an international climate report obtained by The Associated Press.
The final draft of the report from a panel of the world's top climate scientists paints a wild future for a world already weary of weather catastrophes costing billions of dollars.
The report says costs will rise and perhaps some locations will become "increasingly marginal as places to live."
The report from the Nobel Prize-winning Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change will be issued in a few weeks, after a meeting in Uganda.
It says there is at least a two-in-three probability that weather extremes have already worsened because of man-made greenhouse gases.
This marks a change in climate science from focusing on subtle changes in daily average temperatures to concentrating on the harder-to-analyse freak events that grab headlines, cause economic damage and kill people.
The most recent bizarre weather extreme, the pre-Halloween snowstorm in the US, is typical of the damage climate scientists warn will occur – but it's not typical of the events they tie to global warming.
"The extremes are a really noticeable aspect of climate change," said Jerry Meehl, senior scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research.
"I think people realise that the extremes are where we are going to see a lot of the impacts of climate change."
The snow-bearing Nor'easter cannot be blamed on climate change and probably isn't the type of storm that will increase with global warming, four meteorologists and climate scientists said.
They agree more study is needed.
But experts on extreme storms have focused more closely on the increasing numbers of super-heavy rainstorms, not snow, Nasa climate scientist Gavin Schmidt said.
The opposite kind of disaster – the drought in Texas and the south-west US – is also the type of event scientists are saying will happen more often as the world warms, said Schmidt and Meehl, who reviewed part of the climate panel report.
No studies have specifically tied global warming to the drought, but it is consistent with computer models that indicate current climate trends will worsen existing droughts, Meehl said.
Studies also have predicted more intense monsoons with climate change.
Warmer air can hold more water and puts more energy into weather systems, changing the dynamics of storms and where and how they hit.
Thailand is now coping with massive flooding from monsoonal rains that illustrate how climate is also interconnected with other manmade issues such as population and urban development, river management and sinking lands, Schmidt said.
In fact, the report says that "for some climate extremes in many regions, the main driver for future increases in losses will be socioeconomic in nature" rather than greenhouse gases.
The report, which needs approval by diplomats at the mid-November meeting, tries to measure the confidence scientists have in their assessment of climate extremes both future and past.
Chris Field, one of the leaders of the climate change panel, said he and other authors won't comment because the report still is subject to change.
The summary chapter of the report didn't detail which regions of the world might suffer extremes so severe as to leave them marginally habitable.
The report does say scientists are "virtually certain" – 99% – that the world will have more extreme spells of heat and fewer of cold. Heat waves could peak as much as 5C hotter by mid-century and even 9C hotter by the end of the century.
Weather Underground meteorology director Jeff Masters, who wasn't involved in the study, said in the United States from June to August this year, blistering heat set 2,703 daily high temperature records, compared with only 300 cold records during that period, making it the hottest summer in the US since the Dust Bowl of 1936.
By the end of the century, the intense, single-day, heavy rainstorms that now typically happen only once every 20 years are likely to happen about twice a decade, the report says.
The report said hurricanes and other tropical cyclones – like 2005's Katrina – are likely to get stronger in wind speed, but won't increase in number and may actually decrease.
Massachusetts Institute of Technology meteorology professor Kerry Emanuel, who studies climate's effects on hurricanes, disagrees and believes more of these intense storms will occur.
And global warming isn't the sole villain in future climate disasters, the climate report says. An even bigger problem will be the number of people – especially the poor – who live in harm's way.
University of Victoria climate scientist Andrew Weaver, who wasn't among the authors, said the report was written to be "so bland" that it may not matter to world leaders.
But Masters said the basics of the report seem to be proven true by what's happening every day.
"In the US, this has been the weirdest weather year we've had for my 30 years, hands down.
Certainly this October snowstorm fits in with it."
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Cllimate- It changing but to more extremes ?
Updated: 25 Oct 2011
Chelsea Whyte, reporter
2010 saw the coldest November temperature in the UK since 1985, in Llysdinam, Wales
The link between extreme winter weather in North America and Europe - including the cold spells of the last three years - and the 11-year solar cycle is growing stronger.
Last year, New Scientist reported that physicists suspected events in the stratosphere linked solar activity to extreme winters in the UK.
Climate scientists at the UK Met Office have done a new analysis of fluctuations in the Sun's UV radiation, which reinforces that link and suggests a mechanism for how solar activity may affect seasonal weather.
The team emphasise that their findings do not suggest a link to long-term global warming.
The researchers used satellite measurements to show that fluctuations in solar UV radiation are five times as large as previously thought.
When they plugged the data into the Hadley Centre computer model - one of the leading models of the world climate - they were able to show how these fluctuations affect regional weather.
The BBC's Richard Black explains it nicely:
UV is absorbed in the stratosphere, the upper atmosphere, by ozone. So in the quiet bit of the solar cycle, when there is less UV to absorb, the stratosphere is relatively cooler.
The Hadley Centre model shows that the effects of this percolate down through the atmosphere, changing wind speeds, including the jet stream that circles the globe above Europe, North America and Russia.
The net change is a reduced air flow from west to east, which brings colder air to the UK and northern Europe and re-distributes temperatures across the region.
"Our research confirms the observed link between solar variability and regional winter climate," Sarah Ineson, the lead author on the study, told International Business Times. "It's more than just coincidence, there's a real correlation between ultraviolet levels and meteorological variables."
The authors emphasize that cooler temperatures in Northern Europe are accompanied by warmer ones further south, resulting in no net overall cooling. "It's a jigsaw puzzle, and when you average it up over the globe, there is no effect on global temperatures," Adam Scaife, head of the UK Met Office's Seasonal to Decadal Prediction team, told BBC News.
The UV measurements could lead to better forecasting. "While UV levels won't tell us what the day-to-day weather will do, they provide the exciting prospect of improved forecasts for winter conditions for months and even years ahead. These forecasts play an important role in long-term contingency planning," Ineson told Reuters.
The scientists emphasised that several other factors, such as declining levels of sea ice and El Nino, may have played a role in the unusually chilly winters, reports The Independent, which quotes Ineson as saying: "There are a lot of different factors that affect our winter climate. However, the solar cycle would probably have been acting in a way that gave us those cold winters."
The weather seen around the Atlantic from 2009 to 2011 backs up the finding, but the scientists will further confirm their work with solar UV measurements taken over a longer period.
Journal reference: Nature Geoscience, DOI: 10.1038/ngeo1282
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Climate- British Summer Time ends next Sunday -The clocks go back
Updated: 23 Oct 2011
British Summer Time
British Summer Time (BST) starts each year on the last Sunday in March and ends on the last Sunday in October. On Sunday 27 March the clocks will go forward, meaning we lose an hour. British Summer Time is due to end this year on 30 October.
BST is operational on the following dates:
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Start of BST (clocks go forward)
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27 March
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25 March
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31 March
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End of BST (clocks go back)
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30 October
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28 October
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27 October
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Summer time changes on standard dates throughout the EU. Britain and Ireland constantly remain an hour behind most of Central Europe.
The history of daylight saving time
In 1907 an Englishman, William Willett, campaigned to advance clocks by 80 minutes. He proposed four moves of 20 minutes at the beginning of the spring and summer months, and to return to Greenwich Mean Time in a similar manner in the autumn. The following year, the House of Commons rejected a Bill to advance the clocks by one hour during the spring and summer months.
Summer time was first defined in an Act of Parliament in 1916. The clocks were moved one hour ahead of GMT from the spring to the autumn.
During the Second World War, double summer time (two hours in advance of GMT) was introduced, lasting until July 1945.
Since the 1980s, all parts of western and central Europe have co-ordinated the date and the time of their clock changes
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Climate-Predictions of Artic Weather will increase heating bills this winter
Updated: 17 Oct 2011
Heating homes will cost more this winter
as predictions of Arctic winter
lead to possibility of major spike in oil prices
By Daily Mail Reporter
Last updated at 12:06 AM on 16th October 2011
The prediction of Arctic weather this winter has led experts to warn about another major spike in home heating oil prices.
The fear is that vulnerable people like the elderly living on their own might freeze to death if they can't get their oil tanks filled because of the cost or because delivery lorries can't get through on snow-covered roads, or a combination of both.
Last winter the two million UK homes and businesses which rely on heating oil for cooking and central heating saw a doubling of the price in the space of a few weeks, from 40p per litre to 80p per litre.
The prediction of Arctic weather this winter has led experts to warn about another major spike in home heating oil prices (snow in Dublin last winter)
Many people ran out and shivered in their homes as suppliers battled to get enough oil to cope in the severe weather which saw tanks freeze when temperatures plunged to nearly minus 20 in some places.
Oil lorries could not leave UK refineries on schedule because of treacherous road conditions as blizzards struck.
Last winter central heating saw a doubling of the price in the space of a few weeks
Now the industry is appealing to people to stock up early and take advantage of lower prices now before they soar with the onset of winter.
Chris Bale, director of whichoilsupplier.co.uk, a website which helps people track down the best deals, said "The heating oil market is a free one, and unregulated, so the law of supply and demand kicked in last winter.
"With limited oil available and huge demand, the national price went through the roof and a large number of consumers, especially those in the countryside, were left with no fuel for weeks on end.
"We predict the same price spike this year and expect it to break the £1 per litre price.
"We are encouraging people to plan ahead and ensure they have sufficient kerosene to see them through the winter.
"If El Nina brings temperatures of -20 degrees this winter, as predicted, then many people will be cut off."
A random check today revealed an average price of between 55p and 60p a litre...which is an upward "creep" of a few pence on the cost a month or two ago, and industry insiders say they expect it to continue climbing gradually now that the colder weather is approaching.
More...Taking pictures of the apocalypse? There's an app for that: Photographer snaps dramatic storm on his iPhone
Out of this world: Northern Lights AND Milky Way captured in one photograph
Meanwhile, with most of Britain set to bask in glorious sunshine this weekend it's hard to believe there's just two weeks to go until Halloween.
But those woolly jumpers still lying tucked up at the back of the cupboard may soon be needed as the glorious weather is expected to be followed by hail, sleet and gales.
Forecasters predict the mercury plunging on Monday with wind speeds of up to 50mph in Wales and the North-West, while the rest of the country will experience cloudy skies and rain.
Icy winds coming from the Arctic could bring sleet and hail showers to areas of higher ground, with one forecaster even predicting snow over the coming week.
The news will come as a blow to sun worshippers, who on Friday enjoyed temperatures of up to 17c.
On Saturday the mini-heatwave is expected to continue, with highs of 18c in the South, but rain is predicted for tomorrow.
Forecasters said fierce northerly winds will mean below-average temperatures for the rest of the week.
The Met Office’s Helen Chivers said: ‘It has been a few degrees warmer than average this weekend, but that will end on Monday.
It’s going to turn a lot colder as a new front moves across the UK.
‘People in coastal areas may experience gales.’
Jonathan Powell, of independent forecaster Positive Weather Solutions, even raised the possibility of ‘a couple of centimetres of snow’ in Scotland, central and northern England and Wales – but the Met Office said this was extremely unlikely.
Birdwatchers say the recent balmy weather has attracted millions of birds from Germany and other European countries, which will now be competing with our native species for berries.
But while dry spells may be good news for twitchers, they could also cause water shortages during the year ahead.
The Environment Agency said the dry autumn has plunged swathes of the country back into drought, with low winter rainfall set to add additional pressure on water resources across the country next summer.
Despite concerns about the warmer weather, for many thousands of Britons today will be another excuse to head to the beach to make up for the barbecue weekends missed in June and July.
Glinting sea: A paraglider makes the most of the sunshine as he uses the thermals on the coast at Start Bay in South Devon
High life: A hanglider soars through the fresh October skies over Start Point in Devon
Just two weeks ago Briton baked as temperatures soared to 30c with sun-seekers flocking to the coast in their thousands in the first few days of October.
In October last year, the highest temperature recorded was 23.1c in Chivenor, Devon, and it got as cold as -6.6c at both Levens Hall in Cumbria and Sennybridge in Powys.
This year, Central England – the area between London, Bristol and Manchester - has enjoyed the hottest weather for the first two weeks of October in 350 years.
Meanwhile, the balmy temperatures of the past few days have topped June's 14c daytime average and the 15c of July and August.
Households have not even had to dig out the extra bedding usually needed at this time of year as night-time temperatures have been as high as 16c in Gravesend, Kent, at 2am – four degrees higher than the average October daytime.
Nowhere in England or Wales has experienced nighttime temperatures of below 13c this week, with many heading to pub gardens and pavement cafes to enjoy the mild evenings.
Volunteers at the vineyard Crawthorne estate, in Dorset, began picking 40 tons of Pinot noir and Chardonnay grapes yesterday.
The outlook had looked bad for the crop after a cold summer, which could have made the grapes too acidic, but the late sunshine has boosted their fructose production and saved the season.
Plants have been confused by the double summer, with traditional spring bedding plants and even daffodils blooming a second time.
Helen Bostock, senior adviser at the Royal Horticultural Society, said: 'When we get sun at this time of year it gives a super boost to asters and rudbeckia.
'We've also seen a second flush for a lot of roses, branches breaking under weight of ripe fruit and acorns scattering across people's cars.
'It's great news for hungry wildlife.'
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2048971/Heating-homes-cost-winter-predictions-Arctic-winter-lead-possibility-major-spike-oil-prices.html#ixzz1azz5a8n1
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Climate- Huge Artic Ozone Hole Seen
Updated: 05 Oct 2011
Arctic ozone hole breaks all records
18:00 02 October 2011 by Michael Marshall
New Scientist
In the first three months of this year, something unprecedented happened in the skies over the Arctic.
A large hole appeared in the ozone layer, far bigger than any seen there before.
The Arctic ozone layer suffers a little damage every winter, but the effect is normally short-lived.
"This is a clear step beyond that," says href@cam.ac.uk" target=ns s_oc="null">Neil Harris of the University of Cambridge.
As the measurements came in, ozone researchers began to debate whether the loss could be compared to that seen over the Antarctic.
"It's the first time we've even discussed that question," says Harris.
Between 18 and 20 kilometres up, over 80 per cent of the existing ozone was destroyed.
"The loss in 2011 was twice that in the two previous record-setting Arctic winters, 1996 and 2005," says Nathaniel Livesey of the Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, California.
The hole was similar in size to those seen in Antarctica in the 1980s.
The Antarctic hole has continued to grow since then, and is far larger today.
The Arctic ozone hole will have allowed more ultraviolet radiation than before through, but it is unlikely anyone has been seriously harmed, says Bruce Armstrong of the University of Sydney, Australia.
"Occasional ozone depletion episodes such as this would add very little to the underlying population's risk of UV-related cancer."
Ozone killer
The question now vexing atmospheric scientists is why the hole grew so large, and whether it will open again.
Livesey and his colleague Michelle Santee say the hole formed because the stratosphere remained cold for several months longer than usual.
The cold air allowed water vapour and nitric acid to condense into polar stratospheric clouds, which catalyse the conversion of chlorine into chemically active forms that destroy ozone.
But we don't know why the stratosphere stayed cold for so long.
"That will be studied for years to come," Santee says.
Chilly skies
Climate change could be partly responsible.
That may seem counter-intuitive, but global warming occurs only at the bottom of the atmosphere.
"Climate change warms the surface but cools the stratosphere," Harris explains.
In 2007 the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change concluded that "there has been global stratospheric cooling since 1979".
"Whether that is because of climate change is speculation," Santee says.
More work must be done to find out if climate change is leading to stratospheric cooling – and encouraging the formation of ozone holes over the Arctic.
Climate modellers are paying closer attention to the stratosphere than they did just a few years ago: it turns out to be crucial for many phenomena, including the subtle effects of the sun on regional climate.
Journal reference: Nature, DOI: 10.1038/nature10556
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Climate- Predicting this Winter's Weather
Updated: 03 Oct 2011
Predicting this Winter’s weather
It’s going to get colder and darker until the New Year and then it will get lighter and warmer.
All other bets are off .
As a farm hand in his 90’s told me.
What ever you do-“its all according to the weather”
Mark Vogan's Preliminary UK-Europe
Winter Forecast 2011-2012
This Year will continue the Cycle of 'Colder & Snowier Than Normal' Winters for the UK'The 2011-12 may be one of worst overall UK winters in last 100 Years with past two a mere curtain raiser'
HIGHLIGHTS
· Extreme Cold Will Be a Regular Visitor with Low Temps of between -16 to -24C possible from Scotland's far north to the Suburbs of London
· Another White Christmas is possible for most of the UK, most likely over Scotland
· Cold and Snow to Arrive to much of UK by December 15th and may last throughout January
I have real concerns about what winter may bring to us across the UK in 2011-12.
Low solar activity is continuing to force me into the thinking of harsh winter weather for us and although winter arrived early during 2010-11, don't be fooled when winter doesn't arrive by December 1st.
Renewed High-Latitude Volcanic Acivity, Quiet Sun Spot Acivity and Near Neutral ENSO or La Nina Pattern in Pacific Points to Another Harsh WinterI believe the continued unsettled and wet summers the UK is experiencing continues to point to increasingly colder winters and with a near neutral ENSO and the continued influence of high-latitude volcanic activity, major 'blocking' will send exceptional cold from the Pole, Northern Europe and Siberia across the UK and my fear is that this will set up shop for a sustained period of time which may test all-time record cold in many UK towns and Cities.
This winter may bring severe icing on the River Clyde, Thames, Loch Lomond and even around some UK coastal areas.
The worst of the cold I believe will hit around or just after New Year following a 3rd UK-wide White Christmas in a row and may last through much of January.
Within this cold spell, Highs may struggle to reach -10C in Glasgow and Edinburgh and lows may take a run at -20C. Many English and Welsh towns and Cities may struggle to reach highs of -6 to -8C and lows may tumble towards -18 to -21C.
It is possible that the all-time coldest reading in the UK of -27C reached at both Braemar, Aberdeenshire and Altnaharra, Sutherland may be threatened if not beaten and even in areas of England we may see the first -20C low since the 1960s and 70s.
As for Europe, Arctic cold may spread continent-wide during late December and we may be looking at a period of severe cold after a snowy December from the UK to Poland.
Record cold and a maximum test to humanity, the power system and transport infrastructure may make for tough living for 2-3 weeks in January. |
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Climate- Change? All the time !
Updated: 02 Oct 2011
Climate Change
Well some of it is.
The climate is always changing, wherever you are in the world.
The Seasons and the Moon, North or South
How, you ask, is the climate going to adversely affect me?
The best advice is not to live lower than 50 metres above sea level.
Or higher than 350 metres above sea level.
But for me? I am living in a temperate climate and under the Gulf Stream influence.
However I conserve heat by insulation, collect water from the roof, I build the house of bricks, so it won’t blow down and I lock the door from all other intruders.
If I think the climate is on the change- seriously, I stay home. |
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ARCTIC ICE LOSS-CLIMATE
Updated: 21 Sep 2011
Times Atlas grossly exaggerates Greenland ice loss
Erroneous data about how much ice is vanishing due to climate change are once more at the heart of an explosive controversy.
This time, it's not the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, but the venerable Times Comprehensive Atlas of the World that is in the line of fire.
Journalists across the UK received glossy press packs last week for the launch of a new edition.
It included a press release declaring that: "For the first time, the new edition […] has had to erase 15 per cent of Greenland's once permanent ice cover – turning an area the size of the UK and Ireland 'green' and ice-free.
This is concrete evidence of how climate change is altering the face of the planet forever."
Today glaciologists have been crying foul, saying that the 15 per cent figure is wildly inaccurate.
When New Scientist contacted the Times Atlas team last week to find out where they had obtained the number, they cited the National Snow and Ice Data Centre (NSIDC) in Boulder, Colorado, but were unable to be more precise.
Little rise, big mistake
Ted Scambos, the NSIDC's expert on the Greenland ice sheet, says neither he nor his colleagues were consulted in person.
"Graduate students would not have made a mistake like this," he told New Scientist. "If what The Times has said were true, something like a metre of sea level rise would have occurred in the past decade."
That is nowhere near what measurements show.
"Currently, Greenland is losing mass at about a rate of 150 billion tonnes per year, or about one-third of a millimetre of sea level rise per year," says Scambos.
That means in the 12-year period from 1999 to 2011 that the Times Atlas analysed, meltwater from the Greenland ice sheet has contributed roughly 3 mm to global sea level rise – not 1 metre.
In total, the Greenland ice sheet holds enough ice to raise global sea level by about 7 metres, so the loss since 1999 has been less than 0.05 per cent.
Thickness, not surface area
Those numbers correspond to the mass of ice that has been lost, not how much the surface extent has shrunk, as seen from space or in a map.
Mass loss is the preferred measurement for glaciologists as it takes into account the thickness of the ice.
Scambos says the decrease in surface extent would have been "similarly tiny".
So what went wrong? Today, the Times Atlas team were unable to say whether they had spoken directly to the NSIDC.
The team say they downloaded records of ice thickness directly from the NSIDC website, used them to extrapolate the surface extent of the ice that needed to be mapped, and then compared it to what they had published in 1999.
When they did so, they found their dramatic ice loss.
But Scambos says the thickness records are not intended to show the edge of the ice sheet, so it's likely that without consulting a glaciologist directly, the cartographers misinterpreted the data.
"We are still trying to catch up on what went wrong," says Mark Serreze, adding that the datasets are very complex.
"Clearly whoever did this analysis made their own interpretation of the data.
At NSIDC we made no statement of a 15 per cent ice loss.
We do not know where that number has come from. There has been some kind of error, or some kind of mis-assessment of the data.
We're not sure. We're trying to track it down."
The error is doubly unfortunate, says Scambos, because the public may look at the smaller but real numbers and deem them insignificant.
But the rate at which Greenland is losing ice is accelerating.
The ice sheet will have made a substantial contribution to sea level rise before the end of the century, he says, and the implications are "very serious if it keeps going at the rate that we're seeing". |
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CLIMATE- AFTER KATIA
Updated: 13 Sep 2011
Does Katia mean more hurricanes are coming to Europe?
The second hurricane of the Atlantic season, hurricane Katia, has swung north and east and is heading for the UK. New Scientist explains what is happening and why.
What is Katia going to do, and what will happen in the UK?
Katia is currently off the east coast of the US and moving north-east, according to the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida. At present it is a category 1 on the Saffir-Simpson scale of hurricane strength – about as weak as a hurricane gets.
Over the weekend it will head east over the Atlantic to strike the UK on Sunday night. The British Met Office has issued severe weather warnings for the north and west of the country, beginning at midnight on Sunday night. It's not clear which areas will be hit, but gale-force and even storm-force winds are expected.
By the time it reaches the UK, Katia will no longer be a hurricane, but an extratropical storm.
What's the difference?
Hurricanes are powered by the release of heat and moisture from warm oceans, says Julian Heming of the Met Office in Exeter, UK. Wind speeds around a hurricane's core are intense, but fall off relatively quickly further away.
By contrast, storms are driven by the collision of warm and cold air masses. The winds aren't as extreme as a hurricane, but are strong over a larger area.
Katia will transform from a hurricane to an extratropical storm over the weekend, but forecasts suggest it will remain quite coherent and powerful.
Why is Katia heading for the UK?
Hurricanes form in the tropical Atlantic, and two things have to happen to send them north-east, says Heming.
Each hurricane starts out moving west towards the Americas and is held on that trajectory by a belt of high pressure called the subtropical ridge. So long as the ridge holds strong, the hurricane keeps heading west. But if part of the ridge weakens – for instance, because a low-pressure system collides with it – the hurricane can steer north.
Now over cold water, the hurricane starts losing energy. To keep going, it needs a helping hand from the jet stream, a high-altitude current of fast-moving air. "If the jet stream is strong, it can invigorate the storm and shoot it across the Atlantic very fast," Heming says.
That's what has happened to Katia. "We expect it to move very fast," say Heming, so it will have less time to weaken over the cold ocean.
Do many hurricanes turn east like Katia?
We think of Atlantic hurricanes as mostly affecting the Americas, but many of them do turn east. You can see the tracks of previous hurricanes in this interactive graphic.
The last hurricane to reach the UK was 2009's hurricane Bill, which was not particularly severe. The last to cause structural damage was hurricane Gordon in 2006, which brought heavy rain and high winds to other parts of western Europe too.
The most recent powerful hurricane to hit the UK was Lili in 1996. Before that, hurricane Charley caused plenty of damage in 1986.
Are the paths of hurricanes changing as the climate warms?
There's nothing in the weather records to suggest that, Heming says. The paths vary enormously from year to year, so it's hard to see if there are any long-term trends.
On the other side of the US, models suggest that Pacific hurricanes will shift towards the north central Pacific. As a result, Hawaii may experience more hurricanes in future decades. It's unclear if similar changes will happen in the Atlantic.
How climate change will affect hurricanes has long been a bone of contention. At the moment it seems there are no more hurricanes than before, and they may actually become slightly rarer. However, hurricanes may also become stronger with climate change.
Is this what caused the "great storm" of 1987?
On 15 October 1987, the UK was famously caught unawares by a major storm that killed 18 people and caused widespread damage. It wasn't an ex-hurricane like Katia: the storm formed over the bay of Biscay and hit the UK within hours, so it was much harder to predict.
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CLIMATE- ITS NOT ALL HOT AIR
Updated: 12 Sep 2011
Severe weather warning as Hurricane Katia tail approaches
Gales, combined with heavy rain, could cause significant disruption in Ireland, England and Scotland
- Maev Kennedy
- guardian.co.uk, Sunday 11 September 2011 13.20 BST
The tail of Hurricane Katia will bring gale-force winds to Britain. Photograph: AFP/Getty Images
A severe weather warning covering northern Ireland, England and Scotland has been issued by the Met Office, with forecasts saying Britain will be lashed by the tail of Hurricane Katia, causing gale-force winds of up to 80mph late on Sunday and Monday.
The gales, combined with heavy rain, could cause "significant disruption" for Monday morning commuters and, where high winds coincide with high tides along western coasts, there could be flooding.
Although the winds will not be hurricane force by the time Katia – rated a category four hurricane at its peak – reaches the UK, the Met Office chief forecaster, Eddie Carroll, urged people to keep up to date with forecast warnings.
He added: "There's still a fair amount of uncertainty about the track and strength of the winds."
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CLIMATE- UK-HEARD IT THROUGH THE GRAPEVINE- EXPECT MORE EXTREME SWINGS IN THE WEATHER
Updated: 12 Sep 2011
English wine
Heard it through the grapevine
The sparkling—and surprising—success of England’s wine industry
Sep 10th 2011 | DORKING | from the print edition
Economist
IT WAS an English cuvée for a very English day. “Nervy”, with “an austere, honeyed character”, was how one winemaker described the bubbly on offer on a wet afternoon at Denbies, a vineyard in Surrey that is also Britain’s largest.
Nervy and austere, too, is the connoisseur’s traditional view of British-made wines.
But after years of reputational blight, the industry is starting to see the buds of progress.
Denbies’ sparkling wine tastes biscuity and refreshing; it will soon be the only English bubbly in stock in the classiest house-label range at Sainsbury’s, a big supermarket.
Denbies’ rosé was awarded a gold medal at this year’s International Wine Challenge, and other English and Welsh vintages, particularly some of the fizzy wines produced by Nyetimber and Ridgeview in Sussex, are trumping more venerable competitors on the world stage.
British consumers are keen. In 2010, when overall wine-drinking dropped by 1.7%, Britons downed 17.6% more domestic sparkling wine than they had the year before, and 71.2% more of the home-grown still stuff.
Admittedly, this growth is sprouting from a tiny base.
Domestic crops accounted for around 0.3% of the 1.8 billion bottles that British drinkers polished off last year; the 4m bottles made from grapes that were grown and produced at home would slake the country’s thirst for less than a day.
France, by contrast, corked and capped no less than 5 trillion bottles of local serum in the same period.
Even so, on the much-derided British side of the business, any improvement is encouraging.
Why now? “It’s partly climate, partly education and partly ambition,” says Matthew Hudson, head of the wine-business course at Plumpton College in East Sussex.
Climate change is improving once-uncongenial British conditions; harvests are earlier and sun-hungry French varieties are replacing hardier Germanic vines.
Richard Selley, a professor in the earth-science and engineering department of Imperial College, London and author of a book on vineyards, predicts that the wintry slopes of Scotland could be home to a “Côte d’Écosse” by 2080 (see map).
The weak pound has made foreign drops pricier and given a boost to local wines, says Julia Trustram Eve of the English Wine Producers’ association.
Cannier viticulture and higher professional standards are also bearing fruit. Britain’s winemakers are overcoming the impediment of small harvests—which make technical experimentation commercially risky—by sharing expertise and focusing on top-shelf vintages for the discerning buyer.
Sparkling wines, which command high margins, are a good bet.
The acidic grapes that produce them grow well, too: in geological antiquity the chalk hills of southern England were attached to the Champagne region of northern France.
Not everything is rosy.
Cheap booze known as “British wine,” made at home from imported grape juice, threatens the reputation of its flashier cousins.
Even glitzy winemakers sometimes supplement local grapes.
There are whispers that the industry has invested too heavily in sparkling wines and may struggle to find a market for all of its output in the future.
And climate change is not entirely good news: the likelihood of more extreme swings in weather will not make for easy harvests.
Still, the short-term future looks bright for Britain.
Gone are the days when, as in 2005, the Italian prime minister, Silvio Berlusconi, could boast of sending 24 bottles of Italian red to a Swedish counterpart who was apparently “aghast” at the Welsh and English wines served up at an EU summit.
Now, as Mediterranean grape-growers move north to escape the unseasonable heat, they may need to look to newly-temperate Britain for inspiration.
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CLIMATE- CUBA ANTICIPATES SEAL LEVEL RISES BY 27 CENTIMETRES BY 2050 AND 85 CMS BY 2100
Updated: 09 Sep 2011
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C U B A
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Havana. September 8, 2011
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Precaution in the face of
climate change
Orfilio PeláezRESEARCH undertaken as part of the Cuban Macro-project on coastal threats and vulnerability in 2050 and 2100, with the participation of specialists from 16 scientific institutions in the country, determined that rising sea levels are the major danger presented by climate change to Cuba's coastal areas.
According to the models applied by specialists at the Meteorology Institute, sea levels could rise 27 centimeters by 2050 and 85 centimeters by 2100, while oceanographers estimate the change at 31.14cm and 84.92cm respectively.
Taking these projections into consideration, it is possible that by 2050 2,550 square kilometers of land will be submerged, equivalent to 2.32% of the nation's total surface area, a figure which could rise to 5,994 by 2100.
Determining areas which could be permanently inundated required the use of advanced digital technology, including the analysis and processing of a bank of data describing the depth of waters off Cuba's coastline.
Within a shorter timeframe, flooding and waves caused by severe hurricanes are the principal dangers posed by climate change in Cuba, given the damage caused by such phenomena to homes, buildings of economic importance, healthcare facilities, schools, roads and other sites located in low and very low zones along or close to the coast.THE STUDY'S CONTRIBUTIONS
In order to fully evaluate the consequences of the aforementioned information, the Physical Planning Institute (IPF), with its provincial and municipal branches, undertook the first stage of an impact and vulnerability study of waterfront communities given the projected effects of climate change and severe weather conditions by 2050 and 2100.
Geographer Carlos M. Rodríguez Otero, one of the principal authors of the work, explained to Granma that, according to the investigation, if no steps are taken to adapt accordingly, by 2050 a total of 122 localities will be seriously or partially affected by rising sea levels, including 15 which could disappear entirely by that date and another six by the end of the century.
These include beachfront communities in the provinces of Pinar del Río, Artemisa, Mayabeque, Villa Clara, Sancti Spíritus, Ciego de Avila, Camagüey and Las Tunas.
By 2100, as many as 577 waterfront towns could see periodic coastal flooding of varying magnitude, associated with a direct or indirect hit by a severe hurricane, given the extreme surges and tides often caused by these phenomena.
Rodríguez indicated that the areas in most danger are those at just one meter above sea level and at up to 1,000 meters inland from the coastline.
Based on the understandings developed over the last few years and the use of advanced mathematical models, he said, "We have developed a base of data which allowed us to craft several different maps showing the probable permanent or temporary effects of climate change, as well as ocean surges and waves caused by very strong hurricanes. We also evaluated the risks in each area specifically."
"Today, we are aware of every place that could be affected, the magnitude of possible damages to dwellings and other buildings, exactly how far the water could reach, among other valuable pieces of information which place Cuba in an excellent position to reduce the vulnerability of threatened coastal settlements."
To do so requires the design and implementation of policies and measures which contribute to the adaptations necessary to protect the sites in danger, minimize risks and guarantee the safety of the population, as well as economic and social activity.
This includes the re-establishment of order and discipline in the implementation of regulations developed by physical planning authorities, in order to avoid making poor investments in threatened areas, with particular attention to engineering works to reduce risks to those located along the coast, which will require the active participation of communities and others involved.
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CLIMATE- RUNNING DRY ? DROUGHT ? THINK DESALINATION !
Updated: 05 Sep 2011
Monitor
Drops to drink
Desalination:
A technique called electrodialysis
may provide a cheaper way to freshen
seawater for human consumption
Sep 3rd 2011 | from the print edition
SINGAPORE’S average annual rainfall is more than double that of notoriously soggy Britain, so the casual observer might be surprised to learn that the place has a shortage of drinking water.
Yet with around 7,000 people per square kilometre, Singapore is the third most densely populated country in the world.
Its land mass is not large enough to supply its 5m inhabitants with water.
One answer is to desalinate seawater.
That, though, is expensive, so the Singaporean government is keen to find cheaper ways of doing it.
And, in collaboration with Siemens, a German engineering conglomerate, it may have done so, for Siemens says its demonstration electrochemical desalination plant on the island can turn seawater into drinking water using less than half the energy required by the most efficient previous method.
To make seawater fit for human consumption its salt content of approximately 3.5% must be cut to 0.5% or less.
Existing desalination plants do this in one of two ways.
Some employ distillation, which needs about 10 kilowatt-hours (kWh) of energy per cubic metre of seawater processed.
Brine is heated, and the resulting water vapour is condensed. Other plants employ reverse osmosis.
This uses molecular sieves that pass water molecules while holding back the ions, such as sodium and chloride, that make water salty.
Generating the pressure needed to do this sieving consumes about 4kWh per cubic metre.
The Siemens system, by contrast, consumes 1.8kWh per cubic metre, and the firm hopes to get that down to 1.5kWh.
It works using a process called electrodialysis, in which the seawater is pumped into a series of channels walled by membranes that have slightly different properties from those used in reverse osmosis. Instead of passing water molecules, these membranes pass ions.
Moreover, the membranes employed in electrodialysis are of two types.
One passes positively charged ions and the other passes negatively charged ones.
The two types alternate, so that each channel has one wall of each type.
Two electrodes flanking the system of channels then create a voltage that pulls positively charged ions such as sodium in one direction and negatively charged ions such as chloride in the other.
The result is that the ions concentrate in half of the channels, creating a strong brine, while fresher water accumulates in the other half.
As the brine emerges, it is thrown away.
The fresher water is put through the same process twice more and eventually has its salt concentration reduced to 1%. That is not bad, but is still double what is potable. There is therefore one further step. This is to employ an ion-exchange resin in addition to the membranes. Such resins increase the electrical conductivity of the system and allow one more passage, bringing the salt concentration below 0.5%.
A demonstration plant has been operating since December, and a full-scale pilot plant should be completed by 2013.
If all goes well, then, Singapore’s inhabitants will soon no longer feel like Coleridge’s ancient mariner—that there is water, water, everywhere, nor any drop to drink.
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CLIMATE- AUSTRALIA -THE FIGHT FOR OUR PLANET'S FUTURE
Updated: 02 Sep 2011
The fight for our planet's future
Thursday, 1 September, 2011 17:58
Dear friends,
Australia is about to pass a law that would slash carbon emissions and get polluters to pay. This is the front line in the fight for our planet's future -- if we win, it could spur bold global action. But Rupert Murdoch and big polluters are fighting hard to kill the bill, spreading messages of fear across the country. We can help drown out Murdoch's mantra with messages of hope from across the world and help pass the law -- join in now:
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Right now, a major climate fight is blowing up in Australia -- the government is about to pass a law that would cut carbon emissions and get polluters to pay.
But big businesses, backed by Rupert Murdoch, are trying to kill the bill.
This carbon pricing law is a win-win measure -- it will push dirty businesses towards clean production and generate more resources for working families.
If it passes, it will spur other major emitters to follow suit and could be the next best hope for our climate.
But Murdoch's megaphone of fear is massive -- he owns seventy percent of Australia's press.
If together we can drown out his campaign to crush the bill with messages of hope from across the world, we could help it pass.
This battle is being fought on the Australian air waves now.
Sign the urgent petition to back this bold initiative and share it with everyone -- when we reach 250,000 signatures, we’ll run inspiring radio ads that deliver our global messages, lay out the benefits of the law and rouse public support:
http://www.avaaz.org/en/australian_carbon_price/?vl
We are all under threat from climate change -- including the droughts and storms that cause forest fires, floods and failed harvests.
Australia’s proposal would start to shift its economy to halt it.
The measure would make polluting companies pay, encouraging them to become more efficient while funding technologies of the future and increasing support to the most needy.
Yet Murdoch -- who has a long history of supporting climate denial -- has joined with mining companies to spread wild predictions of job losses and economic doom.
Countries like Denmark, Sweden and Costa Rica have already introduced carbon-pricing, spurring innovation and reducing pollution.
If we now embolden Australia -- the worst rich country per person carbon polluter -- to follow their lead, it will generate momentum for other major emitters such as China and the US to follow suit, boosting our chances of a global climate deal next year.
Avaaz members across the world have been strong campaigners on climate change -- our actions together have often influenced governments and companies.
Right now, Australia’s people and political leaders need our support to face down the profiteers and renew our hope in climate solutions.
When our people-powered movement counters these tendencies and proposes a clear vision of the future we want, we bring out the best in our leaders.
Let’s shore up Australia’s resolve, then approach other governments until we achieve the global climate deal the world needs.
With hope,
Alex, Stephanie, Ben, Alice, Emma, Ricken, Giulia, Carol, Rewan and the whole Avaaz team.
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Climate
