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Climate- UK - A Water Shortage for Food ? Could it be raining in the wrong place ?
Updated: 13 Feb 2012
Fears of British super-drought after record low rainfall in winter
Underground water supplies are being used
to keep rivers flowing in the seasons
when they are supposed to be replenished
Robin McKie
• The Observer, Sunday 12 February 2012
Low water levels at Thirlmere reservoir in Cumbria.
The pond at St Peter's Church in Snailwell, Cambridgeshire, is surrounded by clumps of bulrushes and thick oak trees that give it a timeless English appeal.
Coated in a dusting of snow, this small body of water looked the epitome of rural charm.
Only one odd feature upset its picture-postcard appearance.
Around noon every day, automated pumps just above the pond are switched on and for the next few hours 400,000 gallons (1.8m litres) of water are sent cascading down a brick-lined gully into the lake.
The reason for this daily influx is straightforward. If engineers from the Environment Agency had not started pumping water into Snailwell's pond every day this winter, it would have disappeared weeks ago, the victim of a drought that now threatens much of England with a summer of parched landscapes, rivers reduced to trickles and possible hosepipe bans ahead.
"When you use the word drought you become a hostage to fortune.
Events can occur at the last minute to make you look silly," said Andrew Chapman, a senior environment planning officer with the agency.
"But the position is becoming very serious. In simple terms, unless we get a downpour that lasts for several weeks in the very near future, we are in trouble.
There could be severe water shortages in many parts of the country."
Worst affected areas would include the Midlands, East Anglia and the south-east of England, say agency officials.
The impending crisis – which could have widespread consequences for farmers, food production, tourism, industry and domestic life – has been building for the past 18 months. Reservoirs were already low this time last year.
Then came 2011, the driest year in England and Wales for 90 years.
In addition, we are now experiencing the driest winter on record, though this could change over the next few weeks, meteorologists have said.
The crucial point is that boreholes and reservoirs are now at "notably low" or "exceptionally low" levels. At the RSPB reserve at Titchwell Marsh in Norfolk, springs have dried up and many of the birds, including populations of bearded tits, marsh harriers and reed warblers, are now struggling to find food. Fresh water plants and animals such as water voles are also suffering.
"This is a very worrying situation to have at this time of year," said Grahame Madge, an RSPB official. "This is an incredibly important wildlife site that we cannot afford to have damaged. We are going to have to look very carefully at how we manage water supplies there in coming years."
In addition, rivers have dried up in several areas.
These include tributaries of the Welland in Lincolnshire and the Chess in Buckinghamshire.
Fish have become stranded in pools and had to be rescued by agency workers and moved to areas where water is flowing.
"We sometimes have to carry out such rescues in summer," said Ian Barker, the Environment Agency's head of water, land and biodiversity. "But we are having to do this in mid-winter, the one time of year when there is supposed to be plenty of water and rainfall. That is certainly not a healthy state."
The impending water crisis is particularly worrying for farmers.
At this time of year, many build storage lagoons to hold water that they can use later in the year to irrigate crops. But to be allowed to dam up water that would otherwise flow into rivers, farmers have to be given permits by the Environment Agency.
So far this year, 345 applications for such stores have had restrictions placed on them by the agency, limiting the powers of farmers to provide water for their crops during the forthcoming growing season.
"We are facing drastic reductions in yield," said Andrew Nottage, who runs the Russell Smith farm at Duxford, Cambridgeshire.
Among the crops grown by Nottage are potatoes and onions – vegetables that have a high demand for water.
"We can switch crops to less water-intensive types, but there is a problem doing that," he said.
"Farmers are locked into long-term contracts with supermarkets to provide them with the vegetables they want to provide for the British public later in the year.
"It is therefore difficult to switch crops even if you know that you are going to be in trouble when it comes to supplying water for them."
The problem for Britain is that East Anglia is one of the nation's principal food-producing regions. It is also the driest in the country.
"Rainfall patterns here are similar to Israel," said Nottage.
"That makes farming a tricky business some years."
To address the shortage of rainfall last year, the Environment Agency estimated that it would need 20% above average for the months from December last year to April this year.
To date, the rains have been 30% below average.
This month has also been cold – but dry. Instead of being replenished by rain percolating through the ground, boreholes are being used to pump what water they have left to prevent rivers and streams drying up – as is being done at Snailwell.
"If we don't prevent the pond drying up, then the streams that feed from it will disappear and the local wildlife will really suffer," said John Orr, a manager at the Environment Agency.
Whether these problems trigger a full drought in England this summer depends not just on rainfall but summer temperatures. Britain's worst years for rainfall included 1921, 1933, and 1964, but these were not the worst years for drought.
Summers then were relatively cool, and that made up for the lack of water in boreholes and reservoirs.
It was only when heatwaves began to take place, in years when water levels were only fairly low, that there were significant shortages.
This occurred in 1911, 1955, and 1976.
In the case of 1976, the effects were devastating.
The temperature reached 27C (80F) every day between 22 June and 16 July, and often climbed well above 32C (90F). Crucially, the previous summer and autumn had been very dry, while the winter of 1975-76 was also exceptionally dry, along with the spring of 1976.
Heath and forest fires broke out across southern England at the peak of the drought in August; 50,000 trees were destroyed at Hurn Forest in Dorset; and an estimated £500m of crops were lost across the country.
Food prices rose by 12%. Many rivers ran dry.
A drought act was passed by parliament and Denis Howell was appointed minister of drought co-ordination. Among his homespun ideas in response was a suggestion to put bricks in lavatory cisterns and a proposal that husbands and wives should share baths.
There was also widespread water rationing across England. In some areas, supplies to homes were turned off and water was delivered by lorries or public standpipes in streets.
The country has a long way to go before it reaches these extremes, insist officials from the Environment Agency. It would require an exceptionally hot summer to trigger a serious drought, even if there was little rain over the next few months.
On the other hand, the signs are worrying, even in Snailwell. "We are trying to offset the worst effects of the drought that we are already experiencing by pumping water into the pond to protect the streams that feed of it," said Chapman.
"But at the end of the day, we are facing a situation in which there may be no more water to extract from the ground to keep the pond there.
The next few weeks will be crucial." |
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Climate- Britain's greenhouse gasses on the rise
Updated: 08 Feb 2012
First greenhouse gas rises since 2003 cause concern
Tuesday 07 February 2012
Britain's greenhouse gas emissions rose in 2010 for the first time since 2003, figures showed today.
The final estimates for 2010 showed that greenhouse gas output rose by more than 3 per cent, largely due to an increase in gas use for heating homes in the face of cold weather at the beginning and the end of the year.
Emissions from the residential sector rose by almost 15 per cent from 2009, the statistics from the Department of Energy and Climate Change showed.
The rise in emissions was also driven in part by switching away from nuclear to coal and gas for generating electricity.
Friends of the Earth executive director Andy Atkins said: "The rise in fossil fuel use is bad news for the planet and cash-strapped families struggling to cope with the rocketing cost of gas and coal.
"Switching to clean British power and slashing energy waste is the only way to cut fuel bills, reduce emissions and safeguard energy supplies in the future - this must be a top priority for the new Energy Secretary, Ed Davey."
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Climate-Britain- Is your home in a flood zone ?
Updated: 26 Jan 2012
UK told to prepare for mass floods in future
Study says flooding caused by climate change could affect 5 million a year by 2080
Michael McCarthy Thursday 26 January 2012
Tewkesbury was among the worst-affected areas in the 2007 floods
Flooding caused by heavier rainfall will be the major threat to Britain from climate change in the coming decades, potentially costing the country billions a year, a new assessment of the risks of global warming concluded yesterday.
New research commissioned by the Government shows that if no further plans are made to adapt to changing flood risks, as temperatures rise and population grows, by the 2080s damage to buildings and property could reach £12bn per year, compared with current costs of £1.2bn.
In the worst-case scenario, five million people could be affected.
Flooding is regarded as the most serious of 100 separate challenges from a changing climate to Britain's economy, society and natural environment, which have been identified in a comprehensive new study, the Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA).
These include increased health problems for vulnerable people in hotter summers, increased pressure on the UK's water resources, droughts affecting farmers and the potential introduction of new pests and diseases.
The study says that if no further precautions are taken, the number of people affected by flooding is likely to hit between 1.66 million and 3.64 million annually by the 2050s, and by 2.43 million to 4.98 million by the 2080s.
It is significant that of the many problems posed by climate change, flooding is now seen as the most important.
The man behind the CCRA, Sir Bob Watson, Chief Scientific Adviser at the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, said. "I think the flooding issue is the most dominant."
However, this seems at odds with the Government's spending priorities, as expenditure on flood defence has been cut by 27 per cent from the last Labour administration's £354m annually, to £259m a year for the next four years.
"Ministers are playing Russian roulette with people's homes and businesses by cutting too far, too fast," the shadow Environment Secretary, Mary Creagh, said.
The flooding threat comes mainly from the more intense rainfall predicted in a warmer atmosphere.
"What the climate projections show, especially in winter, is significantly more precipitation, but also more heavy precipitation," Sir Bob said.
Such cloudbursts can cause river flooding, but also the new phenomenon of surface water flooding in towns when volumes of rainwater are too big for drainage systems to deal with.
Both of these happened in the summer of 2007, which was Britain's wettest.
Sir Bob said the current risk assessment was based on modelling of river flooding and coastal flooding, which will be made worse by rises in sea-level.
But it does not include the risk from surface water flooding, which is still being researched.
Summertime blues: The washout of 2007
If we want to get a feel for what the future may hold, in terms of flooding, we should look back at the washout summer of 2007.
This was the wettest summer recorded in Britain since rainfall records began in 1766.
It was characterised not only by incessant rain, but especially by two stupendous downpours, the first coming on 24 June in Yorkshire, and the second on 19 July centred on the valley of the River Severn.
The former displayed the new phenomenon of surface water flooding, when the drainage in towns such as Hull and Doncaster simply could not cope; the latter downpour led the Severn to burst its banks and turned the town of Tewkesbury into an island.
I drove through the July downpour; it was the heaviest rainfall I have ever experienced in my life, including the Amazon in the rainy season.
Michael mccarthy |
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Climate- 2011 a record breaking year for extreme weather
Updated: 24 Jan 2012
2011 a record-breaking year for extreme weather: US
By Timothy A. Clary | AFP – Thu, Jan 19, 2012
Last year broke records for extreme weather in the United States, with 14 events each causing at least a billion dollars in damage, US authorities said on Thursday.
Also, 2011 marked 35 years in a row that global temperatures have been warmer than average, according to data released by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
The NOAA report added two events to the previous toll of 12 disasters last year that cost a billion dollars or more -- Tropical Storm Lee which assailed the Gulf Coast in September and a spate of tornadoes, hail and high wind that hit the Midwest in July.
Twenty-one people died due to Tropical Storm Lee and two from the Midwest outbreak.
Kathryn Sullivan, assistant secretary of commerce for environmental observation and prediction and deputy NOAA administrator, described 2011 as an "extraordinary year."
"It was extraordinary regarding major weather and climate disasters in particular in our country, from tornadoes to droughts to floods and extreme storms," she told reporters.
"America endured an unusually large number of extreme events causing damages totaling more than $55 billion dollars."
Sullivan said a series of factors contributed to the high costs of bad weather, including that there are more "people and infrastructure in harm's way."
The US government also has more sophisticated radars, satellites and land-based tools to track weather events than it did in the past.
"NOAA is keeper of the long term climate record for the nation, this year the physical record also indicated a large extent of climate and weather extremes," she added.
Separately, the US space agency NASA announced that 2011 was the ninth warmest year on record since 1880 in global average surface temperature, with nine of the 10 warmest years in history taking place since 2000.
Despite the ocean-cooling influence of the weather phenomenon known as La Nina in the Pacific, the average global temperature last year was 0.92 degrees Fahrenheit (0.51 Celsius) warmer than the mid-20th century baseline.
"We know the planet is absorbing more energy than it is emitting," said NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies director James Hansen.
"So we are continuing to see a trend toward higher temperatures. Even with the cooling effects of a strong La Nina influence and low solar activity for the past several years, 2011 was one of the 10 warmest years on record."
Hansen said that with the anticipated return of El Nino and a coming increase in solar activity, temperatures are likely to peak further in the coming years.
"It's always dangerous to make predictions about El Nino, but it's safe to say we'll see one in the next three years," Hansen said.
"It won't take a very strong El Nino to push temperatures above 2010," which tied with 2005 as the warmest year on record.
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Climate- England's Rivers are drying up
Updated: 23 Jan 2012
Urgent action needed to prevent England's rivers drying up
New report by Environment Agency says
river levels may fall by 80% as a result of climate change and the growing population
Robin McKie
• The Observer, Sunday 22 January 2012
The Derwent, at Borrowdale in Cumbria.
Britain's rivers are drying up. Unless emergency measures are adopted, some of our finest waterways could be reduced to trickles over the next few decades.
This is the stark warning of an Environment Agency study into the predicted impact of climate change on the flow of rivers in England and Wales by 2050. In some cases, the agency warns, river levels in summer could drop by 80%.
Britain's cool green waters will be transformed into puddles of warm, stagnant mud.
Nor will the worst effects be experienced in the south-east of England – even though UK temperatures will reach their highest in that part of the country as global warming reaches across the British isles.
Rivers in the north-west of England, such as the Derwent in Cumbria, are also at risk.
The implications for wildlife, housing, business and tourism are extremely serious, adds the study.
"The problem is not just that average summer temperatures could rise by two or three degrees in Britain over the coming decades," said Trevor Bishop, the head of water resources at the Environment Agency.
"It is also forecast that the population of England and Wales is likely to rise by more than 9 million.
That will only add to the burden that we are placing on our water supplies."
The study – The Case for Change: Current and Future Availability – is the second river report prepared by the agency. A previous version used less precise estimates of the likely impact of climate change.
The new report uses more up-to-date figures and is more precise in its forecasts, says the agency.
In its analysis, the report identifies the twin dangers of climate change and increased population as threats to the water supply.
The former is expected to bring warmer and drier summer weather, particularly to the south-east of England, leading to the drying up of rivers and reservoirs.
The second factor, increased population, will produce a jump in demand for water from them.
This twin assault on the nation's water system could have a devastating impact on its ecology.
"Important habitats could be lost," states the report.
"Fish species such as Atlantic salmon and brown trout, which need cold water to thrive, may struggle to survive.
While plants and animals decline in some parts of England and Wales, they are likely to become more prevalent in other areas out-competing species and habitats local to the area."
The impact on fish populations would also have an effect on other species.
Otters and sea eagles, which have made successful returns to waterways in recent years, would suffer as fish stocks dropped, for example.
Many plant species that rely on plentiful supplies of water would also be badly affected.
The agency's analysis suggests that urgent action is needed. "However, our understanding of the water needs of our ecosystem is still developing," adds the report.
"Climate change will create a new level of complexity on top of our current understanding that we have only just begun to tackle."
The report studies a number of scenarios, some less severe.
Yet all indicate that action will be needed and that measures will be required sooner rather than later.
Significant changes will have to be introduced to halt the lavish amounts of water that are used, and often wasted, by people – although one encouraging sign was identified by Bishop.
"For the past hundred years or so, the average amount of water used by each person in England and Wales has steadily increased.
However, that rise has now stopped and for the first time it has started to decline – slightly."
A key factor in halting our increased use of water has been the introduction of domestic water meters.
"When one is fitted, water usage drops by an average of 12.5% in a household," Bishop added.
"People become aware they have left on taps or hose pipes and so they switch them off."
Around 37% of households are now fitted with water meters, and the figure is expected to rise to about 50% by 2015, cutting even further the average amount used by each person to reduce the strain on our rivers and reservoirs.
Currently, each person uses, on average, about 160 litres (35 gallons) a day – around a third for toilet flushing, a third for washing and bathing, a small amount for food and drink – and the rest for recreational activities, in particular gardening.
The recent white paper, Water for Life, revealed that the government is now committed to reducing that figure to 130 litres.
But this will not be enough to avert the crisis brought about by the double whammy of global warming and the projected rise in the population.
"We have turned the corner but only just," said Bishop.
"We need to adopt some really radical measures."
These could include the use of desalination plants that transform seawater into drinking water.
These use considerable amounts of energy, however, and would only be worth using when water levels become dangerously low.
Similarly, the re-use of effluent water, after it had been treated may also be considered.
In addition, the government may allow water companies to introduce higher charges in summer and at times of drought. |
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Climate-2011 second warmest and ? driest in Lincolnshire
Updated: 31 Dec 2011
2011 was UK's second warmest year on record
The year had an average temperature of 9.62C, beaten only by 2006's record of 9.73C, according to the Met Office
Press Association
guardian.co.uk,
Brighton beach on 1 October 2011 – the hottest October day on record in the UK. Photograph: Peter Macdiarmid/Getty Images
2011 has been the second warmest year on record for the UK, according to the Met Office.
It said provisional figures show that only 2006, with an average temperature of 9.73C (49.5F) was warmer than 2011's average temperature of 9.62C.
Despite this year seeing high temperatures for long periods – including the warmest April and spring on record, the second warmest autumn and the warmest October day – early figures suggest we are ending 2011 with a "close to average" December.
John Prior, the national climate manager at the Met Office, said: "While it may have felt mild for many so far this December, temperatures overall have been close to what we would expect.
"It may be that the stark change from last year, which was the coldest December on record for the UK, has led many to think it has been unseasonably warm."
All bar one of the top 10 warmest years on record have occurred since 1997 and all the UK's top seven warmest years happened in the past decade.
The warmest temperature recorded this year – 33.1C on 27 June at Gravesend in Kent – was the highest recorded in the UK for five years.
But this was one of just a few hot days in a rather cool summer which was bookended by the warm spring and autumn.
Apart from January, the only months that had below-average temperatures were June, July and August.
Gravesend was again the location for the warmest October temperature ever, when 29.9C was recorded on 1 October, beating the previous record of 29.4C at March in Cambridgeshire on the same day in 1985.
The warm autumn especially seemed to have a marked impact on flora and fauna.
The coldest temperature was -13C at Altnaharra in the Scottish Highlands on 8 January, while the strongest gust of wind was 165mph, recorded at the summit of the Cairngorms on 8 December.
Globally 2011 was the 11th warmest year on record. La Niña – a weather system in the Pacific that brings cooler water to the surface – pushed down the global average, meaning this year was cooler than 2010, which broke weather records around the world.
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Climate - Farming and Food - Its all according to the weather
Updated: 29 Dec 2011
Britain's topsy-turvy weather means vegetables arrive three months early
(and there could be shortages in Spring)
By Tamara Cohen
Last updated at 8:03 PM on 28th December 2011
Bumper crops of vegetables are arriving months too early in the latest saga of this year’s topsy-turvy weather.
Farmers say they are harvesting cabbages, sprouts broccoli and cauliflowers up to three months earlier than usual and some fear they could see shortages in the Spring.
Yesterday forecasters predicted temperatures could reach 14C on New Year’s Eve – great for outdoor revellers - in what would be one of the most unusual weather events in years.
Unexpected rise: Farmers are tending to crops that are reaping ahead of schedule
After a cool day today (Thurs) with strong winds and some showers, a stretch of mild weather will begin tomorrow (Fri) and continue into the first week of 2012.
At Riverford Farm near Totnes in Devon, which supplies 40,000 households with vegetables every week, savoy cabbages are already so big they have burst of out their boxes and between 15 and 20 per cent of the crop had to be ploughed back into the ground.
Harvest manager Ed Scott said without a cold snap which allows leeks and cabbages to ‘hibernate’ and start growing again in February or March, they had just carried on.
He said: ‘This crop has become so confused by the comparatively warm conditions that as well as maturing well ahead of schedule, a fair number of the plants are actually flowering.
‘This should not be happening until February and they’ve been blooming through December, a full three months early.
‘Our concern now is whether or not these crops will hold till we can pick them.
I never thought I’d say this, especially after last year’s brutal winter, but bring on the snow and ice!’
Cornish farmers are predicting a cauliflower shortage after an early crop.
Philip Pryor, a grower near Truro in Cornwall, said that the warm weather had caused a glut and a fall in prices, and said if the weather does not return to normal ‘volumes are not going to be there for what is required.’
Last year’s freezing winter saw temperatures reach -7C and vegetable crops frozen into the ground.
The National Farmers Union played down reports of shortages and said the early crops had been seen in the south west of England but were ‘not a national picture’.
A spokeswoman said: ‘This has not been the case all over the country, and although the warm weather has made the seasons move around a bit, we are not going to see any empty supermarket shelves.
We are likely to see the Spring crops arrive earlier than usual too.’
The warm spell which began in late September has hardly abated with temperatures reaching a Boxing Day high of 15.5C (60F) in Aberdeenshire – the average daytime temperature for June.
Both cabbage, left and cauliflower fields have been benefiting from warmer climates
Gardeners claimed to have seen snowdrops, which usually appear in February, and even daffodils blooming early in Devon and Buckinghamshire over Christmas.
Sacha Hubbard of Hill House Plant Nursery, Ashburton, Devon wrote on Twitter: ‘A daffodil is in flower - not a usual Christmas event at all!’.
Yesterday it was a cool 10C in the south and just 8C with gale force winds in the north, which saw a lorry overturn in the centre of Newcastle-upon-Tyne as gusts reached speeds of 65mph.
Motorists were urged to take extra care in exposed and coastal areas as the same brisk, chilly weather is predicted today (Thurs) with wind speeds reaching around 50mph in the north-east, and further west in Cheshire and Snowdonia.
But the rest of the country will have a dry day.
From Friday temperatures will pick up everywhere to as high as 11C in the north and 13C in the south with the possibility of 14C in the south-east.
New Year’s Eve is set to be a mild night going into a dry and bright start to 2012.
A Met Office spokesman said: ‘Temperatures are slightly above average but the windy weather means it doesn’t feel like it yet, but it will warm up again from Friday and New Year’s Eve will be particularly mild.’
‘The first week or so of January is expected to be relatively mild but unsettled, with cloudy periods with some rain interspersed with colder, clearer and more showery weather.’ |
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Climate- Change - When I'm dead and gone
Updated: 20 Dec 2011
Earth in balmy 2080
05 December 2011 by Michael Marshall
New Scientist
Editorial: "Durban climate summit must accept degrees of responsibility"
It's 2080. Global emissions peaked decades ago, too late to keep temperatures from rising more than 2 °C above preindustrial levels. The shift in climate has changed the world.
As temperatures climbed by 2 °C, effects were felt first in poor and vulnerable regions like sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia. Extreme weather events - droughts, floods and hurricanes - became more common and severe. Vulnerable nations had a stark choice: adapt or face millions of deaths.
At huge financial cost, society has adapted.
We cannot say for sure what kind of a home Earth will offer in 2080, but averages made across thousands of model runs help paint a picture of what a 2 °C warmer world would look like.
Read more: "Warmer world is the challenge of a generation"
One key difference will be the increase in extreme weather events. The good news is that with investment, we can adapt to some of this, says Saleemul Huq of the International Institute for Environment and Development. In 1991, a massive cyclone struck Bangladesh, killing 130,000 people.
Afterwards, the country built shelters and early warning systems.
When the equally powerful cyclone Sidr struck in 2007, the death toll was reduced to less than one-tenth of that. "Better preparation can bring down the casualty rates," Huq says.
But above 2 °C, impacts are increasingly felt worldwide. The relative wealth of Europe and North America means they can build better defences and suffer far fewer deaths, but economic costs will be severe.
A warmer climate will be bad news for global agriculture, with regional winners and losers, says Andrew Challinor of the University of Leeds, UK.
Agronomists are busy designing new varieties of staple crops like rice and wheat able to survive more frequent heatwaves and droughts, and organisations like the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research are helping farmers find out what works for them.
Despite such efforts, crops will fail more often (Environmental Research Letters, DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/5/3/034012), probably leading to food-price spikes.
Cases of health problems ranging from heatstroke to infectious diseases will also increase. Models show tropical diseases will move into higher latitudes and altitudes with warming, though some believe that better public health in many affected regions will stave off the worst.
The degree of sea-level rise is a big uncertainty, but we know it lags behind temperature increases so the worst of those consequences probably will not have kicked in even by 2080. Scientists are also split on the link between temperature and human conflict. Some believe civil unrest will rise as the climate becomes harsher.
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Climate- Winter Water Wanted
Updated: 20 Dec 2011
UK gets water shortage warning
Much of England and Wales could face serious water shortages next year unless there is significant rainfall over the winter months, the Environment Agency warned.
The recent wet weather has done little to replenish water levels in rivers and reservoirs already low after one of the driest periods on record.
Six water companies have already initiated drought management plans to ensure supplies to customers remain unaffected.
The Environment Agency says the situation will not improve unless there is 120% of the average rainfall between now and next April.
Barbara Young, the Agency's chief executive, said: "We should not become complacent just because we have had heavy rainfall in the last few days.
"England and Wales has had an exceptionally dry summer and autumn and while water supplies have provided us throughout this period and supplies are secure for the coming winter, unless we receive higher than average rainfall between now and March we could be faced with water restrictions and serious water shortages in 2004."
The period from February until now has been the second driest in England and Wales since 1921.
The worst hit region is the South East where over the past three months some parts have seen as little as 30% of their average rainfall leaving many rivers flowing at only 20% of normal for the time of year.
The Environment Agency recently granted Thames Water two drought permits, allowing it to increase abstraction from the River Thames and a groundwater source for the next four months.
Decisions are awaited on applications for permits from United Utilities and South East Water, while Southern Water, Severn Trent, and Welsh Water are all expected to ask for permits. Among the Agency's tips for saving water are to replace worn tap washers to prevent dripping, use the minimum amount of water for boiling kettles and saucepans, select half-load programmes on dishwashers and washing machines wherever possible, and wash vegetables in a bowl rather than under a running tap.
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-202817/UK-gets-water-shortage-warning.html#ixzz1h3Yu19yI
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Climate- Weather- A Mild Christmas and Unsettled New Year
Updated: 20 Dec 2011
United Kingdom
Warnings
Tuesday 20 December Published at 00:46
UK Warnings
Weather Warning
2011-12-20 00:46:50
Tuesday 20th December
The Met Office has issued a YELLOW warning of ICE, covering Scotland and parts of northern England.
Snowfall and wintry showers falling onto cold ground will bring a risk of icy conditions. The risk will then increase overnight as temperatures fall and untreated wet surfaces freeze.
Valid from 1400 on Monday 19th until 1200 on Tuesday 20th.
Flood Warning
2011-12-20 00:46:38
Tuesday 20th December
There are no flood warnings in force in the United Kingdom.
Further updates will appear here.
About the Met Office Weather Warnings
BBC Weather carries two types of weather warnings issued by the Met Office: Warnings and Early Warnings.
Warnings will be issued when severe weather is expected within the next 24 hours.
Early Warnings will be issued more than 24 hours ahead of severe weather.
There are three categories of event Red, Amber and Yellow - the most severe is Red.
A Warning and an Early Warning of the same colour have the same severity but are forecast to arrive at different times. Thus, the difference between a Red Warning and a Red Early Warning is the lead time of the event.
When a warning is in force, full information can be found at Met Office Weather Warnings
About the Environment Agency Flood Warnings
The flood warnings are issued by the Environment Agency and the Scottish Environment Protection Agency and sent to the BBC Weather Centre, we then issue a compendium of warnings based on the latest information available. When severe flood warnings are issued they will also be highlighted on TV broadcasts.
Find out more about Flood Warnings
There are a number of ways you find out whether your area is at risk from flooding. Both the Environment Agency (for England and Wales) and the Scottish Environment Protection Agency update their warnings 24 hours a day via the Floodline number.
Floodline - 0845 988 1188
Monthly Outlook
Monday 19 December Published at 10:00
Monthly Outlook
Summary
A mild Christmas and unsettled New Year
This week has the shortest day of the year but even as the days draw out over the next few weeks, we typically expect the temperatures to keep falling.
Our weather is bucking this trend at the moment as, after the recent cold weather, things are taking a milder turn.
Anyone hoping for a white Christmas may be disappointed!
Over the next month the south of the UK will see some quite settled weather at times, but in the north wind and rain is often on the cards.
Monday 19 December—Sunday 25 December
Mild and sometime wild
After the recent cold weather, this week brings a rather milder picture, particularly mid-week when some of us could see the dizzying heights of the early teens!
Monday starts on a chilly note with frost and ice for many places at first, particularly in southeast Scotland.
Rain and strengthening winds moving in from the west will give everyone a spell of rain during the day and bring snow to Scotland.
Tuesday looks set to be one of the quietest days of the week.
Hazy sunshine is forecast for much of the day although rain will move in later.
It should be much milder on Wednesday, however this will cause the snow across Scotland to thaw quite rapidly and could lead to some flooding problems.
Further heavy rain and strong winds could exacerbate the problem.
A damp and cloudy day in store for western areas, but drier with the odd bright spell in the east.
Thursday won't feel very wintry as the mild weather continues.
Further rain and drizzle is forecast in the west with the best of any brightness in eastern counties of England. Northwest Scotland and parts of Northern Ireland could have a rather wet day.
Temperatures take a tumble towards the end of the week as Friday brings more rain and showers. Those numbers creeping back up again by the weekend, making a white Christmas look unlikely!
Monday 26 December—Sunday 1 January
A fight starts on Boxing Day
As we head into Boxing Day we start to see a struggle between an unsettled, wet and windy set-up to the north and high pressure trying to build to the south.
So for the northern half of the UK we can expect strong or gale force winds at times and some spells of heavy or prolonged rain.
This mobile weather pattern will act to keep things mild and often hold frost at bay.
For southern areas, we have a different story with a drier and less windy outlook but with a greater risk of frost forming by night.
Monday 2 January—Sunday 15 January
New year, new weather pattern?
Little change in the weather for the northern half of the UK through the beginning of the new year.
However there will be a different outlook for the south.
The unsettled theme already dominating the north will extend across the rest of the country.
This will lead periods of wind and rain for all but with the north of the UK once again in line for the lion's share.
Snow may well feature in the forecast at times too, chiefly across northern hills.
On the whole this unsettled theme will keep the temperatures on the mild side. Some colder spells are quite likely, bringing the risk of frost and fog at times.
The east will be favoured with the best of the crisp, bright winter weather.
Next week
Statistically, January has the lowest daytime temperatures of any month but how cold will it be for the rest of January 2012?
Monthly forecasting
The weather beyond about a week ahead stretches even the most experienced weather forecaster. Complex numerical weather forecast models from the Met Office and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) are run many times for the month (and season) ahead to build up a picture of the likelihood of different weather types affecting the UK.
Next update at 10:00, Monday 26 December
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Climate- Is Your Home Prepared for Winter ?
Updated: 15 Dec 2011
Home insurance is there to give you peace of mind in case of a claim, but we can't repay the time, effort and stress that winter weather damage to your home may cause you and your family.
So here are some simple tips to help protect your home this winter.
First things first
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During a cold snap, leave the heating permanently on low. 15 degrees is about right.
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Make sure all your pipes are insulated, in and outdoors.
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Check your loft insulation's thick enough.
It should be around 10 inches deep.
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If your water tank is in the loft, this should be insulated as well.
Don't insulate the bottom or the floor right underneath it.
A bit of warm air getting through will help stop it freezing.
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Next up, check and repair
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Find your main stopcock and make sure that you can turn it on and off.
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If you've got a dripping tap, fix it.
Remember to check all your outside taps, too.
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Remove loose or overhanging tree branches from your property to prevent damage from wind and snow. You may need to speak to your Local Authority to see if any trees are protected.
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Check for any damage to chimneys, loose roof tiles or unsecured TV aerials.
Or get a professional in to help. Good home maintenance reduces the risk of more damage occurring during bad weather.
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Clean out gutters to prevent rainwater overflowing and getting into plasterwork and decorations.
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Going away?
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If you're away from home for a few days keep the heating on at a low level – about 15 degrees - throughout.
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Leave the loft door open.
Warm air will circulate up to the roof, and should help stop things freezing.
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If you're away for a longer period of time, it might be worth draining the pipes down completely.
Turn off the mains and the stopcocks.
Then run the taps and flush the loos till all the water's gone.
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Also, asking a friend or family member to check your home every so often while you're away can be a good idea.
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If you're going away for more than 30 days, call your Insurance Co.. If you don't, it might affect your policy.
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If a cold spell is on its way, there are a few simple actions you can take to help prevent the
pipes in your home from freezing and causing damage.
How to help insulate and protect your home
Prepare pipes for icy weather by insulating
them with lagging. Don’t forget the corners.
Make sure you’ve lagged any pipes you might
have outside.
Check to make sure your loft insulation is
thick enough. It should be around 10 inches
deep. Also, make sure that your water tank is
covered - but not underneath, so warm air can
circulate.
1 Step one
Find your main stopcock and make sure that
you can turn it on and off.
2 Step two
If you have any taps that have a tendency to
drip, now's the time to fix them. This will help
prevent problems when the wintery weather
comes.
And don't forget any taps that are
outside. Also, check to make sure your boiler
has been serviced by a Gas Safe professional,
preferably in the summer to give you enough
time to have any work done before the cold
weather sets in.
3 Step three
4
Try and insulate your home – fit draught
proofing to any gaps in windows or doors and
make sure wall cavities are well insulated.
Step four
5
If you’re away from home for a few days keep
the heating on at a low level – about 15
degrees - throughout.
If you’re away for a
longer period of time it might be wise and
more cost effective to shut down the system
completely, turn off all the mains, stopcocks
and drain down pipes, toilets and radiators.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
If the pipes in your home have frozen, just follow these quick steps to help prevent or limit any
damage.
What to do if your pipes have frozen
Ok. First things first – turn the water off, drain
the system and leave the taps open.
1 Step one
A good way to thaw out frozen pipes is to use
a hairdryer. Just run the hairdryer up and
down the pipes a section at a time. If you’ve
found a leak, put something underneath to
collect water. Only use a hairdryer when safe
to - being very careful if near water. If the pipe
is damaged, the water could spray up and
cause electrocution.
2 Step two
If you'd rather, you could use a hot water bottle
tied to the pipes with a towel. But whatever you
do, don't use a naked flame like a blow torch to
thaw your pipes as you could cause some
serious damage.
3 Step three
4
If your pipes thaw and they don’t seem to be
damaged, slowly open your stopcock until
water starts running through the taps again.
Then you can turn your taps off. |
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Climate- Hardy Fuschias-Planting- Winter Care and Pruning
Updated: 11 Dec 2011
Hardy Fuchsias
There are many types of fuchsias to choose from.
Those that are recommended to be planted in the garden and left there during the winter months are listed as Hardies. For fuchsia plants to qualify under this heading, stringent tests must be carried out.
Different varieties are distributed all over the British Isles and cultivated under normal conditions for several years. They are left exposed to the elements during the winter months.
If after a predetermined time these plants manage to survive even the coldest climate, they are then categorised as Hardies.
The British Fuchsia Society has an official list of fuchsia plants that are capable of being over wintered in the garden (see below).
It would be advisable to only select from these if you wish to grow fuchsias in the garden and leave them there all the year round.
Planting & Winter Care
After choosing an ideal location and digging the hole for the selected plant, sprinkle a light dressing of an organic fertilizer (e.g. bonemeal) over the excavated soil and then gently fork it in.
Remove the pot before planting.
This may sound ridiculous, but it is not unknown for fuchsias to have been planted with the pot left in situ. Place a liberal amount of garden compost or similar material in the bottom of the hole.
When planting hardy fuchsias into the garden, it is advisable to plant them slightly deeper than the depth of the pot (see diagram below).
The line depicts the ground level.
Planting at this depth not only has the benefit of protecting the roots from severe frost, but also the branches below ground level will usually produce extra root growth.
After positioning the plant at the suggested level, replace the soil, (with the added fertilizer) ensuring it is in contact with all the root system.
Gently firm the soil around the plant and insert a label with the name of the fuchsia. Lastly, apply adequate water and keep the soil moist until the plant is well established.
Planting is best completed before the end of August, thus allowing it time to become acclimatised to the elements before winter arrives.
As an extra precaution, a mulch of well rotted garden compost or any similar material spread copiously around the plant in the autumn should provide extra root protection during the winter.
Pruning
It is an advantage to retain the branches intact on the plants during the winter.
This not only prevents any disease entering the wounded stems caused by late pruning, but the extra cover will also help to give them a little protection during the very cold months.
The best time to prune outdoor fuchsias is during early spring after the new shoots appear.
Cut back every branch just above a pair of leaf buds to within three or four inches from the surface of the ground.
This type of hard pruning will also induce new growth to sprout from below ground level.
Repeat this procedure every year.
Do not prune any outdoor fuchsias until you are sure that all frosts are finished |
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Climate - The Planet is Dying -sign the petition
Updated: 07 Dec 2011
The planet is dying
Tuesday, 6 December, 2011 11:30
Dear friends,
Our planet is dying and big oil companies have key nations in their pockets, blocking any chance of a climate treaty. We have 4 days till UN talks end -- let's call on the EU, Brazil and China to lead us towards a deal to save the planet! Click here to sign the urgent petition:
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Our oceans are dying, our air changing, and our forests and grasslands turning to deserts.
From fish and plants to wildlife to human beings, we are killing the planet that sustains us, and fast.
There is one single greatest cause of this destruction of the natural world -- climate change, and in the next 4 days, we have a chance to stop it.
The UN treaty on climate change -- our best hope for action -- expires next year, but a dirty and greedy US-led coalition of oil-captured countries is trying to kill it forever.
It's staggeringly difficult to believe, but they are trading short term profits for the survival of our natural world.
The EU, Brazil and China are all on the fence -- they are not slaves to oil companies the way the US is, but they need to hear a massive call to action from people before they really lead financially and politically to save the UN treaty.
The world is gathered at the climate summit for the next 4 days to make the big decision.
Let's send our leaders a massive call to stand up to big oil and save the planet -- an Avaaz team at the summit will deliver our call directly: http://www.avaaz.org/en/the_planet_is_dying/?vl Things are becoming desperate -- all over our planet extreme weather continues to smash records, leaving millions homeless and without food or shelter.
We’re rapidly reaching our point of no return to stop runaway climate change -- we only have until 2015 to start making drastic reductions to our carbon pollution.
Yet despite this very real urgency, the world has failed to mobilise against the fossil fuel captured democracy of the US.
Not only content with wrecking the Copenhagen talks and the Kyoto protocol, they are now building a coalition of climate treaty killers to put the final nail in the coffin of international negotiations in Africa.
Our only hope to turn things around lies with Europe, Brazil and China -- they can make a deal happen, but they need to do it together, and that’s where we come in. Europe is tired, it’s fought long and hard on climate and needs a public boost.
China has already agreed to binding commitments, is sensitive to its international reputation, and could lead further if we give it an encouraging push.
And Brazil is hosting next year's earth summit -- making them eager to set the world up for climate success.
Let’s build a giant global call to bring our champions together and build a green dream team. Sign the petition now and forward this email: http://www.avaaz.org/en/the_planet_is_dying/?vl The crazy focus on short term profits that motivates countries to stall and scuttle action on a climate crisis that literally threatens the survival of all of us cannot be tolerated.
Fortunately, our movement has the power to intervene in this process and demand change.
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Climate-The obscene demand in the search for profits is heating up the world by up to 4C
Updated: 07 Dec 2011
Warmer world is the challenge of a generation
Updated 14:33 06 December 2011 by Michael Marshall and Catherine Brahic
New Scientist
The chance to prevent the world warming by 2 °C has gone,
but that's no reason to give up fighting for a greener future
Editorial: "Durban climate summit must accept degrees of responsibility"
AS THE latest round of United Nations climate negotiations began in Durban, South Africa, on Monday, expectations could scarcely have been lower. A globally binding deal is further away than ever.
That makes considerable warming from climate change inevitable.
In the last few weeks major reports by the International Energy Agency and the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) have concluded that we can still meet the UN's target of limiting warming to 2 °C above preindustrial levels.
But climate scientists are far less optimistic.
Many say the chance to avoid a 2 °C rise has been and gone, and we must now prepare for the damage to come.
To have a fair chance of keeping below 2 °C, global emissions would have to peak by 2020 or so before falling. There's no sign of that: they made their biggest-ever leap in 2010.
Many countries promised to cut their emissions at the 2009 UN climate summit in Copenhagen, Denmark, but modelling carried out by climate consultancy Ecofys, based in the Netherlands, shows that even if those cuts were implemented in full we would still see 3.5 °C of warming by 2100.
Read more: "Earth in balmy 2080"
To meet the 2 °C target, even bigger cuts are needed.
According to UNEP, nations must emit the equivalent of no more than 44 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide each year by 2020, but current pledges are 6 to 12 gigatonnes short.
A UNEP report published last week says we can bridge this "emissions gap" by combining faster uptake of renewable energy, improved energy efficiency, and cuts to other greenhouse gases.
A second UNEP report points out that it is much easier to cut short-lived greenhouse gases like methane, and fine atmospheric particles like soot from inefficient stoves.
Cutting these emissions could keep the thermostat from rising by 2 °C until the middle of the century, buying us time to deal with CO2.
It is the inertia in our society that is the problem, says the International Energy Agency in its 2011 World Energy Outlook report.
The lifespan of existing power plants and factories commits us to 80 per cent of the total emissions that will take us to 2 °C.
Construction over the next five years commits us to the rest, so unless we switch our investments from fossil fuels to low-carbon technologies within five years, 2 °C of warming is inevitable.
The reality is that the 2 °C target is technically and economically feasible, but politically impossible.
Saleemul Huq of the International Institute for Environment and Development says that countries would have to go to a war footing to do it.
He compares the situation to the second world war, when nations like the UK transformed their economies to deal with an overwhelming threat.
This single-minded commitment can work miracles, but no country has any such plans.
The UK's secretary of state for energy and climate change, Chris Huhne, says the deadline for an international deal is 2015.
Other countries, like the US and India, want to delay even discussing a deal until then, leaving scant time to the desired emissions peak in 2020.
And as Durban talks got under way this week, Canada announced it would not be participating in any successor to the Kyoto protocol.
What should we do if we cannot hit emissions targets?
First, do not give up on cutting emissions, says Brian Hoskins of Imperial College London. We don't fully understand the climate, so we might emit more than is currently deemed "safe" and stay under 2 °C by sheer luck.
And don't change the 2 °C target. It's too early, says Corrine Le Quéré, director of the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research in the UK. The next IPCC report, due in 2013, could show that society can cope with a warmer world (see "Welcome to a world warmed by 2 °C").
If it does, a small increment in the target might be justifiable, she says, but until then shifting goalposts would be premature and send the wrong message.
"I haven't seen anything to suggest that 2 °C is less dangerous now than it was when it was adopted," Le Quéré says.
At all costs, Hoskins adds, we must avoid 4 °C.
Indeed, this could wipe out the Amazon rainforest and halt the Asian monsoon.
Finally, some form of geoengineering may be necessary.
"We are going to have to look at CO2 removal," says Tim Lenton of the University of Exeter, UK.
Trees are already being planted to act as carbon sinks, and prototype technologies exist for sucking CO2 from the atmosphere.
Hoskins says they could be essential later in the century to keep temperatures down.
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Climate- China emits more Carbon Dioxide than the US but is also more committed to cuts
Updated: 07 Dec 2011
China's consumers emit more than US for the first time
18:00 04 December 2011 by Michael Marshall
New Scientist
In the inglorious race to warm the planet, developing countries are catching up.
For the first time, China's consumers are responsible for more carbon dioxide emissions than their US counterparts are – and consumption in developing countries now generates more carbon dioxide than that in developed countries.
Until recently the most significant trend was rich nations' practice of effectively exporting their emissions.
They do this by shutting down their own factories and importing goods from China or other emerging economies.
In 2008, for instance, one-third of China's domestic emissions came from the manufacture of goods for export, which means that consumers in rich countries were ultimately to blame for those emissions.
That situation is now changing, says Glen Peters of the Center for International Climate and Environmental Research – Oslo, in Norway.
Consumers in developing countries – those not included in annex B to the Kyoto protocol – released more CO2 than consumers in developed countries.
As a leading emerging economy, China's emissions grew 10.4 per cent last year. "The developing countries' excuses are starting to drop away," says Peters.
Committed to cuts
That's not the full story, however, says John Moore of Beijing Normal University in China.
There are far more developing countries than developed countries, and China's high emissions are largely a product of its huge population, he says.
This means that consumption per person in China is still far lower than in the US.
Moreover, Moore also says China has shown far more commitment to cutting emissions than most developed countries: it puts up a new wind turbine every hour on average, for instance.
Pressure on local officials to meet emissions targets is so intense that last year Anping county temporarily cut power to homes and public facilities, including traffic lights, to do so.
"If China makes a promise to cut emissions, they will do it," Moore says.
Ultimately, both developed and developing countries will have to slash their emissions dramatically if we are to limit climate change to a manageable level.
"It's pointless to keep blaming each other," Moore says.
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Climate- A Warmer world brings different problems
Updated: 02 Dec 2011
Warmer world is the challenge of a generation
Updated 14:27 01 December 2011 by Michael Marshall and Catherine Brahic
New Scientist
The chance to prevent the world warming by 2 °C has gone, but that's no reason to give up fighting for a greener future
Editorial: "Durban climate summit must accept degrees of responsibility"
AS THE latest round of United Nations climate negotiations began in Durban, South Africa, on Monday, expectations could scarcely have been lower.
A globally binding deal is further away than ever.
That makes considerable warming from climate change inevitable.
In the last few weeks major reports by the International Energy Agency and the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) have concluded that we can still meet the UN's target of limiting warming to 2 °C above preindustrial levels.
But climate scientists are far less optimistic.
Many say the chance to avoid a 2 °C rise has been and gone, and we must now prepare for the damage to come.
To have a fair chance of keeping below 2 °C, global emissions would have to peak by 2020 or so before falling. There's no sign of that:
they made their biggest-ever leap in 2010.
Many countries promised to cut their emissions at the 2009 UN climate summit in Copenhagen, Denmark, but modelling carried out by climate consultancy Ecofys, based in the Netherlands, shows that even if those cuts were implemented in full we would still see 3.5 °C of warming by 2100.
Read more: "Earth in balmy 2080"
To meet the 2 °C target, even bigger cuts are needed.
According to UNEP, nations must emit the equivalent of no more than 44 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide each year by 2020, but current pledges are 6 to 12 gigatonnes short.
A UNEP report published last week says we can bridge this "emissions gap" by combining faster uptake of renewable energy, improved energy efficiency, and cuts to other greenhouse gases.
A second UNEP report points out that it is much easier to cut short-lived greenhouse gases like methane, and fine atmospheric particles like soot from inefficient stoves.
Cutting these emissions could keep the thermostat from rising by 2 °C until the middle of the century, buying us time to deal with CO2.
It is the inertia in our society that is the problem, says the International Energy Agency in its 2011 World Energy Outlook report. T
he lifespan of existing power plants and factories commits us to 80 per cent of the total emissions that will take us to 2 °C.
Construction over the next five years commits us to the rest, so unless we switch our investments from fossil fuels to low-carbon technologies within five years, 2 °C of warming is inevitable.
The reality is that the 2 °C target is technically and economically feasible, but politically impossible. Saleemul Huq of the International Institute for Environment and Development says that countries would have to go to a war footing to do it.
He compares the situation to the second world war, when nations like the UK transformed their economies to deal with an overwhelming threat. This single-minded commitment can work miracles, but no country has any such plans.
The UK's secretary of state for energy and climate change, Chris Huhne, says the deadline for an international deal is 2015.
Other countries, like the US and India, want to delay even discussing a deal until then, leaving scant time to the desired emissions peak in 2020.
And as Durban talks got under way this week, Canada announced it would not be participating in any successor to the Kyoto protocol.
What should we do if we cannot hit emissions targets? First, do not give up on cutting emissions, says Brian Hoskins of Imperial College London.
We don't fully understand the climate, so we might emit more than is currently deemed "safe" and stay under 2 °C by sheer luck.
And don't change the 2 °C target. It's too early, says Corrine Le Quéré, director of the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research in the UK.
The next IPCC report, due in 2013, could show that society can cope with a warmer world (see "Welcome to a world warmed by 2 °C").
If it does, a small increment in the target might be justifiable, she says, but until then shifting goalposts would be premature and send the wrong message.
"I haven't seen anything to suggest that 2 °C is less dangerous now than it was when it was adopted," Le Quéré says.
At all costs, Hoskins adds, we must avoid 4 °C. Indeed, this could wipe out the Amazon rainforest and halt the Asian monsoon.
Finally, some form of geoengineering may be necessary.
"We are going to have to look at CO2 removal," says Tim Lenton of the University of Exeter, UK.
Trees are already being planted to act as carbon sinks, and prototype technologies exist for sucking CO2 from the atmosphere.
Hoskins says they could be essential later in the century to keep temperatures down.
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Climate-Deal at Summit? No! Profit comes first again
Updated: 02 Dec 2011
Durban – your guide to the latest vital climate summit
17:38 25 November 2011 by Fred Pearce
New Scientist
Climate negotiators meet in Durban, South Africa, from Monday to discuss controls on greenhouse gas emissions.
The ostensible aim is to devise a continuation for the Kyoto protocol, which ends in December 2012.
It is two years on from the deal-that-never-was in Copenhagen, Denmark, and the global temperature is still rising.
Environment consultant Fred Pearce offers his guide to understanding what's at stake.
Will there be a deal this year?
Sadly not. American legislators won't entertain the idea of legally enforceable limits on their emissions.
The Russians and Japanese say that without the US, they are not interested.
Ditto China and India.
That leaves only Germany of the top six national emitters still in favour of a binding deal.
Even optimists don't think US politicians will be in the mood to consummate a new deal until 2016 at the earliest.
The best that can be hoped for is a "coalition of the willing" committed to a stop-gap extension of the Kyoto protocol which does not include the US.
We are facing a "lost decade" in climate talks.
Most of the US Senate barely believes in climate change, let alone doing anything about it.
Most other nations play lip service, but blame economic travails for postponing hard decisions. Some think the recession will buy us time. Not so.
Last year saw the biggest annual increase in carbon dioxide emissions ever recorded – almost 6 per cent.
This was mostly due to China, India and others burning more coal, the dirtiest fuel.
Isn't coal supposedly on the way out?
Quite the reverse.
When the new climate talks started in 2006, the world got 25 per cent of its primary energy from coal; now the proportion is 30 per cent.
Even Germany will likely burn more coal as it shuts its nuclear plants in the wake of the nuclear disaster at Japan's Fukushima Daiichi plant.
Just 2 hours' drive from Durban, South Africa feeds the coal addiction with the world's largest coal export terminal at Richards Bay.
Meanwhile, CO2 is accumulating in the atmosphere.
By 2016, concentrations will probably pass 400 parts per million, compared with 353 ppm when the climate convention was passed in Rio de Janeiro in 1992.
Is there a plan B?
There could be.
Even without a Durban protocol, some countries say they will meet voluntary national targets.
The European Union has legislated to cut emissions to 20 per cent below 1990 levels by 2020.
China, Brazil, Mexico and some others say they will reduce the "carbon intensity" of their economies – the amount of CO2 they emit per unit of GDP - though their emissions will probably continue to rise.
A few US states, led by California, plan to cap their emissions.
Some see this resorting to a voluntary approach as doomed. Others see it as the only way forward.
Durban will also see negotiations on REDD (Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation, which could deliver a system for countries and corporations with self-imposed targets to offset their emissions by investing in forest conservation.
This could kick-start a global carbon market and help create political consensus for a future deal.
But can there be a carbon market without a global deal first?
Doubtful. Without legal limits on emissions, there are no legally enforceable emissions permits to trade, so a voluntary system could be prone to collapse.
The price of carbon on the existing limited market, based around EU Kyoto protocol permits, has halved during November to below 6 euros per tonne.
Any other possibilities?
Yes. The UN Environment Programme is behind a big push to cut emissions of soot from diesel emissions, traditional cooking stoves, brick kilns and the like.
Soot, often termed black carbon, is the second biggest contributor to climate change, but is not part of the climate talks. Soot only stays in the air for a few days, so cutting emissions would have a big and immediate impact.
UNEP says banishing it could cut global warming by 0.5°C by 2030 – 0.7°C in the Arctic.
Watch out for separate talks.
Even the US might buy into this one.
Even so, the climate forecast is bad, right?
Dreadful. Nobody knows for sure, but the sober-minded International Energy Agency said this month that we have just six years to stave off 2°C of warming.
And the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change warned that such a warming would bring a big increase in many extreme weather events, from droughts and floods to killer heat waves.
So what will the crux of the Durban meeting be?
The hottest topic will probably be drumming up money for the promised $100 billion "green fund" to help poor countries adapt to climate change.
It's supposed to start in 2013.
How do you apply?
Good question. Nobody seems sure what the eligibility criteria should be.
One view is countries vulnerable to any kind of extreme weather should be entitled to cash from the fund.
Another is that the money should go to those who can show that they are threatened directly by human-made climate change. In any case, rich nations are proving very slow to put their hands in their pockets.
So what's the smart money on?
Umm. Geoengineering?
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Climate- If its snowing heavily its comforting to know you'll have a farmer right behind you
Updated: 22 Nov 2011
Farming army is ready for snow
22 November 2011 | By Olivia Midgley
Farmers Guardian
AN ARMY of farmers has been signed up to clear roads with 4x4s in preparation for severe winter weather.
Surrey County Council has enlisted 50 drivers with tractors and ploughs to clear snow-covered routes for drivers
Council cabinet member for transport and environment, Ian Lake, said: “Our 40-plus gritters and ploughs will be doing everything possible to keep Surrey moving in bad weather but they can’t treat every road in Surrey, which is why the support farmers provide is so important.
“We’ve got even more farmers working with us this year and they’ll be focusing their efforts on keeping disruption caused by ice and snow in rural areas to a minimum.”
Arable farmer Ray Simmons, of East Flexford Farm, near Wanborough, and his son Jim are ready to send four ploughs out in the Waverley and Guildford areas, including on the Hogs Back, to unclog snow-hit roads.
Mr Simmons said: “Obviously there was more snow last year than normal and we were out a lot on the roads and then clearing car parks at schools. You want to be out there early before people in vehicles crush it down and make it harder to clear.
“We keep an eye on the weather and prepare well. We make sure the tractors’ fuel tanks are full up and we keep everything under cover so we’re ready to go as soon as we’re needed because it’s not good trying to do that when there’s snow.”
Malcolm Mott, of Fairchildes Farm, Chelsham, has two ploughs ready to go out in Tandridge, covering areas around Warlingham and Oxted.
Mr Mott said: “I like to get out to shift snow before vehicles flatten it on roads. We can do six to eight hours at a time, depending on conditions. Last year was hectic because the snow drifted back on to the road from fields.”
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Climate- Its changing- the arguments are hotting up
Updated: 20 Nov 2011
UN Panel Predicts More Extreme Heat, Drought and Precipitation
POSTED BY: Bill Sweet / Fri, November 18, 2011
Contemplating the prolonged heat wave and drought that afflicted much of Texas through last summer, you would have to be an extreme climate change skeptic not to wonder whether global warming was playing a role.
Instead skeptics have preferred to focus on unseasonable winter events, like the freak snowstorm that swept the U.S. Northeast in late October or the immense record-setting blizzard that swept the Mid-Atlantic states in January last year.
Actually, both kinds of events are consistent with what we should expect with continued global warming, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reported this week.
"It is virtually certain that increases in the frequency and magnitude of warm daily temperature extremes and decreases in cold extremes will occur in the 21st century on the global scale," the report says.
"It is very likely that the length, frequency and/or intensity of warm spells, or heat waves, will increase over most land areas. . . [A] 1-in-20 year hottest day is likely to become a 1-in-2 year event by the end of the 21st century in most regions, except in the high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, where it is likely to become a 1-in-5 year event."
Further, "It is likely that the frequency of heavy precipitation or the proportion of total rainfall from heavy falls will increase in the 21st century over many areas of the globe.
This is particularly the case in the high latitudes and tropical regions, and in winter in the northern mid-latitudes." In other words, temperate regions will see more winter precipitation, including snowfall.
In more tropical zones, '[h]eavy rainfalls associated with tropical cyclones are likely to increase with continued warming," though the frequency of cyclones and hurricanes is not expected to increase as such.
Surveying weather records going back to 1950, the IPCC finds "It is very likely that there has been an overall decrease in the number of cold days and nights, and an overall increase in the number of warm days and nights, on the global scale, i.e., for most land areas with sufficient data.
It is likely that these changes have also occurred at the continental scale in North America, Europe, and Australia." Regarding rainfall, "There have been statistically significant trends in the number of heavy precipitation events in some regions.
It is likely that more of these regions have experienced increases than decreases, although there are strong regional and subregional variations in these trends."
Readers will note that because of the criticism the IPCC has cone under for not hedging its forecasts with suitable qualifiers about confidence intervals, the panel has taken special care in this report to say whether its findings and forecasts are very likely, probable, or merely possible.
This is especially so when it comes to the human contribution to global warming and its effects.
Thus, the report says: "It is likely that anthropogenic influences have led to warming of extreme daily minimum and maximum temperatures on the global scale.
There is medium confidence that anthropogenic influences have contributed to intensification of extreme precipitation on the global scale. It is likely that there has been an anthropogenic influence on increasing extreme coastal high water due to increase in mean sea level.
The uncertainties in the historical tropical cyclone records, the incomplete understanding of the physical mechanisms linking tropical cyclone metrics to climate change, and the degree of tropical cyclone variability provide only low confidence for the attribution of any detectable changes in tropical cyclone activity to anthropogenic influences."
Readers may want to consult for themselves the rather complex charts at the bottom of the IPCC documents showing how it expects the probability distributions for various types of events to shift with global warming in this century.
Summarizing the findings, Thomas Stocker, cochairman of the working group that produced the report, put it like this for the press release that accompanied the report: "For the high emissions scenario, it is likely that the frequency of hot days will increase by a factor of 10 in most regions of the world.
Likewise, heavy precipitation will occur more often, and the wind speed of tropical cyclones will increase while their number will likely remain constant or decrease |
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Climate- South East, Stand by for Stand pipes soon
Updated: 20 Nov 2011
Dry weather sparks early water warning
Autumn leaves have been falling but not the much needed rain to re-fill the region’s water resources.
As a result, South East Water is planning ahead to manage its water resources both this Winter and, crucially, ahead of next Spring and Summer, when customer demand for water will rise.
At this stage it cannot rule out drought permits, which would allow it to take more water from local rivers to fill its reservoirs, or possible water restrictions next Spring.
The last 12 months (October 2010 to October 2011) have been the driest since 1976 in the South East region, while the onset of Autumn was replaced by a late ‘Indian Summer’. October was one of the warmest months on record, according to the Met Office.
Likewise, the amount of rainfall in September was just 60% of the long term average, but was even less in October - just 30% of the long term average fell across the South East region.
Customer demand for water has increased too – the Company saw demand for water peak at 211 million litres per day in October, some 44 million litres more than the same month last year.
As a result, South East Water’s two reservoirs in Sussex – Ardingly and Arlington - are now reaching very low levels, with both just over a third full. Ardingly Reservoir is currently 34% full, while Arlington Reservoir is 33% full.
Water levels in the Company’s groundwater sources – particularly along the Seaford coast where water is drawn from chalk aquifers, and in West Kent and East Sussex, where water is drawn from sandstone aquifers - are also below average for the time of year.
Lee Dance, Head of Water Resources at South East Water, said: “The unseasonably warm, dry weather we’re continuing to experience has delayed the start of the traditional period when rainfall refills both our reservoirs and underground sources, giving them a much needed boost before next Spring and Summer.
“Our underground sources in particular are crucial as they provide 75% of all our water supplies, and rely on that rainfall to fill them up.
“We are continuing to carefully monitor the situation and are fine tuning our water supply network to move water around the Sussex area.
“These changes have helped, as have the very small amounts of rain we have had recently. But it is prudent to plan ahead and make sure we do everything we can to secure supplies for our customers next year, so that does mean having to plan for possible drought permits and water restrictions.”
While South East Water will be working hard to protect its water resources this Winter, it’s asking customers to do their bit too, by making sure any water they use is not wasted, and reporting any leaks on the company’s dedicated leakline 0333 000 3330, so they can be fixed as soon as possible. |
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Climate- A Wet Bonfire Night-Nov. 5th ? and much much more
Updated: 02 Nov 2011
Wild weather worsening due to climate change, IPCC confirms
Final draft of a report from the UN climate panel warns that weather extremes will come at a huge cost
Associated Press
guardian.co.uk,
Freakish weather disasters — from the sudden October snowstorm in the north-east US to the record floods in Thailand — are striking more often.
And global warming is likely to spawn more similar weather extremes at a huge cost, says a draft summary of an international climate report obtained by The Associated Press.
The final draft of the report from a panel of the world's top climate scientists paints a wild future for a world already weary of weather catastrophes costing billions of dollars.
The report says costs will rise and perhaps some locations will become "increasingly marginal as places to live."
The report from the Nobel Prize-winning Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change will be issued in a few weeks, after a meeting in Uganda.
It says there is at least a two-in-three probability that weather extremes have already worsened because of man-made greenhouse gases.
This marks a change in climate science from focusing on subtle changes in daily average temperatures to concentrating on the harder-to-analyse freak events that grab headlines, cause economic damage and kill people.
The most recent bizarre weather extreme, the pre-Halloween snowstorm in the US, is typical of the damage climate scientists warn will occur – but it's not typical of the events they tie to global warming.
"The extremes are a really noticeable aspect of climate change," said Jerry Meehl, senior scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research.
"I think people realise that the extremes are where we are going to see a lot of the impacts of climate change."
The snow-bearing Nor'easter cannot be blamed on climate change and probably isn't the type of storm that will increase with global warming, four meteorologists and climate scientists said.
They agree more study is needed.
But experts on extreme storms have focused more closely on the increasing numbers of super-heavy rainstorms, not snow, Nasa climate scientist Gavin Schmidt said.
The opposite kind of disaster – the drought in Texas and the south-west US – is also the type of event scientists are saying will happen more often as the world warms, said Schmidt and Meehl, who reviewed part of the climate panel report.
No studies have specifically tied global warming to the drought, but it is consistent with computer models that indicate current climate trends will worsen existing droughts, Meehl said.
Studies also have predicted more intense monsoons with climate change.
Warmer air can hold more water and puts more energy into weather systems, changing the dynamics of storms and where and how they hit.
Thailand is now coping with massive flooding from monsoonal rains that illustrate how climate is also interconnected with other manmade issues such as population and urban development, river management and sinking lands, Schmidt said.
In fact, the report says that "for some climate extremes in many regions, the main driver for future increases in losses will be socioeconomic in nature" rather than greenhouse gases.
The report, which needs approval by diplomats at the mid-November meeting, tries to measure the confidence scientists have in their assessment of climate extremes both future and past.
Chris Field, one of the leaders of the climate change panel, said he and other authors won't comment because the report still is subject to change.
The summary chapter of the report didn't detail which regions of the world might suffer extremes so severe as to leave them marginally habitable.
The report does say scientists are "virtually certain" – 99% – that the world will have more extreme spells of heat and fewer of cold. Heat waves could peak as much as 5C hotter by mid-century and even 9C hotter by the end of the century.
Weather Underground meteorology director Jeff Masters, who wasn't involved in the study, said in the United States from June to August this year, blistering heat set 2,703 daily high temperature records, compared with only 300 cold records during that period, making it the hottest summer in the US since the Dust Bowl of 1936.
By the end of the century, the intense, single-day, heavy rainstorms that now typically happen only once every 20 years are likely to happen about twice a decade, the report says.
The report said hurricanes and other tropical cyclones – like 2005's Katrina – are likely to get stronger in wind speed, but won't increase in number and may actually decrease.
Massachusetts Institute of Technology meteorology professor Kerry Emanuel, who studies climate's effects on hurricanes, disagrees and believes more of these intense storms will occur.
And global warming isn't the sole villain in future climate disasters, the climate report says. An even bigger problem will be the number of people – especially the poor – who live in harm's way.
University of Victoria climate scientist Andrew Weaver, who wasn't among the authors, said the report was written to be "so bland" that it may not matter to world leaders.
But Masters said the basics of the report seem to be proven true by what's happening every day.
"In the US, this has been the weirdest weather year we've had for my 30 years, hands down.
Certainly this October snowstorm fits in with it."
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Cllimate- It changing but to more extremes ?
Updated: 25 Oct 2011
Chelsea Whyte, reporter
2010 saw the coldest November temperature in the UK since 1985, in Llysdinam, Wales
The link between extreme winter weather in North America and Europe - including the cold spells of the last three years - and the 11-year solar cycle is growing stronger.
Last year, New Scientist reported that physicists suspected events in the stratosphere linked solar activity to extreme winters in the UK.
Climate scientists at the UK Met Office have done a new analysis of fluctuations in the Sun's UV radiation, which reinforces that link and suggests a mechanism for how solar activity may affect seasonal weather.
The team emphasise that their findings do not suggest a link to long-term global warming.
The researchers used satellite measurements to show that fluctuations in solar UV radiation are five times as large as previously thought.
When they plugged the data into the Hadley Centre computer model - one of the leading models of the world climate - they were able to show how these fluctuations affect regional weather.
The BBC's Richard Black explains it nicely:
UV is absorbed in the stratosphere, the upper atmosphere, by ozone. So in the quiet bit of the solar cycle, when there is less UV to absorb, the stratosphere is relatively cooler.
The Hadley Centre model shows that the effects of this percolate down through the atmosphere, changing wind speeds, including the jet stream that circles the globe above Europe, North America and Russia.
The net change is a reduced air flow from west to east, which brings colder air to the UK and northern Europe and re-distributes temperatures across the region.
"Our research confirms the observed link between solar variability and regional winter climate," Sarah Ineson, the lead author on the study, told International Business Times. "It's more than just coincidence, there's a real correlation between ultraviolet levels and meteorological variables."
The authors emphasize that cooler temperatures in Northern Europe are accompanied by warmer ones further south, resulting in no net overall cooling. "It's a jigsaw puzzle, and when you average it up over the globe, there is no effect on global temperatures," Adam Scaife, head of the UK Met Office's Seasonal to Decadal Prediction team, told BBC News.
The UV measurements could lead to better forecasting. "While UV levels won't tell us what the day-to-day weather will do, they provide the exciting prospect of improved forecasts for winter conditions for months and even years ahead. These forecasts play an important role in long-term contingency planning," Ineson told Reuters.
The scientists emphasised that several other factors, such as declining levels of sea ice and El Nino, may have played a role in the unusually chilly winters, reports The Independent, which quotes Ineson as saying: "There are a lot of different factors that affect our winter climate. However, the solar cycle would probably have been acting in a way that gave us those cold winters."
The weather seen around the Atlantic from 2009 to 2011 backs up the finding, but the scientists will further confirm their work with solar UV measurements taken over a longer period.
Journal reference: Nature Geoscience, DOI: 10.1038/ngeo1282
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Climate- British Summer Time ends next Sunday -The clocks go back
Updated: 23 Oct 2011
British Summer Time
British Summer Time (BST) starts each year on the last Sunday in March and ends on the last Sunday in October. On Sunday 27 March the clocks will go forward, meaning we lose an hour. British Summer Time is due to end this year on 30 October.
BST is operational on the following dates:
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Start of BST (clocks go forward)
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27 March
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25 March
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31 March
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End of BST (clocks go back)
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30 October
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28 October
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27 October
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Summer time changes on standard dates throughout the EU. Britain and Ireland constantly remain an hour behind most of Central Europe.
The history of daylight saving time
In 1907 an Englishman, William Willett, campaigned to advance clocks by 80 minutes. He proposed four moves of 20 minutes at the beginning of the spring and summer months, and to return to Greenwich Mean Time in a similar manner in the autumn. The following year, the House of Commons rejected a Bill to advance the clocks by one hour during the spring and summer months.
Summer time was first defined in an Act of Parliament in 1916. The clocks were moved one hour ahead of GMT from the spring to the autumn.
During the Second World War, double summer time (two hours in advance of GMT) was introduced, lasting until July 1945.
Since the 1980s, all parts of western and central Europe have co-ordinated the date and the time of their clock changes
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Climate-Predictions of Artic Weather will increase heating bills this winter
Updated: 17 Oct 2011
Heating homes will cost more this winter
as predictions of Arctic winter
lead to possibility of major spike in oil prices
By Daily Mail Reporter
Last updated at 12:06 AM on 16th October 2011
The prediction of Arctic weather this winter has led experts to warn about another major spike in home heating oil prices.
The fear is that vulnerable people like the elderly living on their own might freeze to death if they can't get their oil tanks filled because of the cost or because delivery lorries can't get through on snow-covered roads, or a combination of both.
Last winter the two million UK homes and businesses which rely on heating oil for cooking and central heating saw a doubling of the price in the space of a few weeks, from 40p per litre to 80p per litre.
The prediction of Arctic weather this winter has led experts to warn about another major spike in home heating oil prices (snow in Dublin last winter)
Many people ran out and shivered in their homes as suppliers battled to get enough oil to cope in the severe weather which saw tanks freeze when temperatures plunged to nearly minus 20 in some places.
Oil lorries could not leave UK refineries on schedule because of treacherous road conditions as blizzards struck.
Last winter central heating saw a doubling of the price in the space of a few weeks
Now the industry is appealing to people to stock up early and take advantage of lower prices now before they soar with the onset of winter.
Chris Bale, director of whichoilsupplier.co.uk, a website which helps people track down the best deals, said "The heating oil market is a free one, and unregulated, so the law of supply and demand kicked in last winter.
"With limited oil available and huge demand, the national price went through the roof and a large number of consumers, especially those in the countryside, were left with no fuel for weeks on end.
"We predict the same price spike this year and expect it to break the £1 per litre price.
"We are encouraging people to plan ahead and ensure they have sufficient kerosene to see them through the winter.
"If El Nina brings temperatures of -20 degrees this winter, as predicted, then many people will be cut off."
A random check today revealed an average price of between 55p and 60p a litre...which is an upward "creep" of a few pence on the cost a month or two ago, and industry insiders say they expect it to continue climbing gradually now that the colder weather is approaching.
More...Taking pictures of the apocalypse? There's an app for that: Photographer snaps dramatic storm on his iPhone
Out of this world: Northern Lights AND Milky Way captured in one photograph
Meanwhile, with most of Britain set to bask in glorious sunshine this weekend it's hard to believe there's just two weeks to go until Halloween.
But those woolly jumpers still lying tucked up at the back of the cupboard may soon be needed as the glorious weather is expected to be followed by hail, sleet and gales.
Forecasters predict the mercury plunging on Monday with wind speeds of up to 50mph in Wales and the North-West, while the rest of the country will experience cloudy skies and rain.
Icy winds coming from the Arctic could bring sleet and hail showers to areas of higher ground, with one forecaster even predicting snow over the coming week.
The news will come as a blow to sun worshippers, who on Friday enjoyed temperatures of up to 17c.
On Saturday the mini-heatwave is expected to continue, with highs of 18c in the South, but rain is predicted for tomorrow.
Forecasters said fierce northerly winds will mean below-average temperatures for the rest of the week.
The Met Office’s Helen Chivers said: ‘It has been a few degrees warmer than average this weekend, but that will end on Monday.
It’s going to turn a lot colder as a new front moves across the UK.
‘People in coastal areas may experience gales.’
Jonathan Powell, of independent forecaster Positive Weather Solutions, even raised the possibility of ‘a couple of centimetres of snow’ in Scotland, central and northern England and Wales – but the Met Office said this was extremely unlikely.
Birdwatchers say the recent balmy weather has attracted millions of birds from Germany and other European countries, which will now be competing with our native species for berries.
But while dry spells may be good news for twitchers, they could also cause water shortages during the year ahead.
The Environment Agency said the dry autumn has plunged swathes of the country back into drought, with low winter rainfall set to add additional pressure on water resources across the country next summer.
Despite concerns about the warmer weather, for many thousands of Britons today will be another excuse to head to the beach to make up for the barbecue weekends missed in June and July.
Glinting sea: A paraglider makes the most of the sunshine as he uses the thermals on the coast at Start Bay in South Devon
High life: A hanglider soars through the fresh October skies over Start Point in Devon
Just two weeks ago Briton baked as temperatures soared to 30c with sun-seekers flocking to the coast in their thousands in the first few days of October.
In October last year, the highest temperature recorded was 23.1c in Chivenor, Devon, and it got as cold as -6.6c at both Levens Hall in Cumbria and Sennybridge in Powys.
This year, Central England – the area between London, Bristol and Manchester - has enjoyed the hottest weather for the first two weeks of October in 350 years.
Meanwhile, the balmy temperatures of the past few days have topped June's 14c daytime average and the 15c of July and August.
Households have not even had to dig out the extra bedding usually needed at this time of year as night-time temperatures have been as high as 16c in Gravesend, Kent, at 2am – four degrees higher than the average October daytime.
Nowhere in England or Wales has experienced nighttime temperatures of below 13c this week, with many heading to pub gardens and pavement cafes to enjoy the mild evenings.
Volunteers at the vineyard Crawthorne estate, in Dorset, began picking 40 tons of Pinot noir and Chardonnay grapes yesterday.
The outlook had looked bad for the crop after a cold summer, which could have made the grapes too acidic, but the late sunshine has boosted their fructose production and saved the season.
Plants have been confused by the double summer, with traditional spring bedding plants and even daffodils blooming a second time.
Helen Bostock, senior adviser at the Royal Horticultural Society, said: 'When we get sun at this time of year it gives a super boost to asters and rudbeckia.
'We've also seen a second flush for a lot of roses, branches breaking under weight of ripe fruit and acorns scattering across people's cars.
'It's great news for hungry wildlife.'
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2048971/Heating-homes-cost-winter-predictions-Arctic-winter-lead-possibility-major-spike-oil-prices.html#ixzz1azz5a8n1
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Climate- Huge Artic Ozone Hole Seen
Updated: 05 Oct 2011
Arctic ozone hole breaks all records
18:00 02 October 2011 by Michael Marshall
New Scientist
In the first three months of this year, something unprecedented happened in the skies over the Arctic.
A large hole appeared in the ozone layer, far bigger than any seen there before.
The Arctic ozone layer suffers a little damage every winter, but the effect is normally short-lived.
"This is a clear step beyond that," says href@cam.ac.uk" target=ns s_oc="null">Neil Harris of the University of Cambridge.
As the measurements came in, ozone researchers began to debate whether the loss could be compared to that seen over the Antarctic.
"It's the first time we've even discussed that question," says Harris.
Between 18 and 20 kilometres up, over 80 per cent of the existing ozone was destroyed.
"The loss in 2011 was twice that in the two previous record-setting Arctic winters, 1996 and 2005," says Nathaniel Livesey of the Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, California.
The hole was similar in size to those seen in Antarctica in the 1980s.
The Antarctic hole has continued to grow since then, and is far larger today.
The Arctic ozone hole will have allowed more ultraviolet radiation than before through, but it is unlikely anyone has been seriously harmed, says Bruce Armstrong of the University of Sydney, Australia.
"Occasional ozone depletion episodes such as this would add very little to the underlying population's risk of UV-related cancer."
Ozone killer
The question now vexing atmospheric scientists is why the hole grew so large, and whether it will open again.
Livesey and his colleague Michelle Santee say the hole formed because the stratosphere remained cold for several months longer than usual.
The cold air allowed water vapour and nitric acid to condense into polar stratospheric clouds, which catalyse the conversion of chlorine into chemically active forms that destroy ozone.
But we don't know why the stratosphere stayed cold for so long.
"That will be studied for years to come," Santee says.
Chilly skies
Climate change could be partly responsible.
That may seem counter-intuitive, but global warming occurs only at the bottom of the atmosphere.
"Climate change warms the surface but cools the stratosphere," Harris explains.
In 2007 the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change concluded that "there has been global stratospheric cooling since 1979".
"Whether that is because of climate change is speculation," Santee says.
More work must be done to find out if climate change is leading to stratospheric cooling – and encouraging the formation of ozone holes over the Arctic.
Climate modellers are paying closer attention to the stratosphere than they did just a few years ago: it turns out to be crucial for many phenomena, including the subtle effects of the sun on regional climate.
Journal reference: Nature, DOI: 10.1038/nature10556
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Climate- Predicting this Winter's Weather
Updated: 03 Oct 2011
Predicting this Winter’s weather
It’s going to get colder and darker until the New Year and then it will get lighter and warmer.
All other bets are off .
As a farm hand in his 90’s told me.
What ever you do-“its all according to the weather”
Mark Vogan's Preliminary UK-Europe
Winter Forecast 2011-2012
This Year will continue the Cycle of 'Colder & Snowier Than Normal' Winters for the UK'The 2011-12 may be one of worst overall UK winters in last 100 Years with past two a mere curtain raiser'
HIGHLIGHTS
· Extreme Cold Will Be a Regular Visitor with Low Temps of between -16 to -24C possible from Scotland's far north to the Suburbs of London
· Another White Christmas is possible for most of the UK, most likely over Scotland
· Cold and Snow to Arrive to much of UK by December 15th and may last throughout January
I have real concerns about what winter may bring to us across the UK in 2011-12.
Low solar activity is continuing to force me into the thinking of harsh winter weather for us and although winter arrived early during 2010-11, don't be fooled when winter doesn't arrive by December 1st.
Renewed High-Latitude Volcanic Acivity, Quiet Sun Spot Acivity and Near Neutral ENSO or La Nina Pattern in Pacific Points to Another Harsh WinterI believe the continued unsettled and wet summers the UK is experiencing continues to point to increasingly colder winters and with a near neutral ENSO and the continued influence of high-latitude volcanic activity, major 'blocking' will send exceptional cold from the Pole, Northern Europe and Siberia across the UK and my fear is that this will set up shop for a sustained period of time which may test all-time record cold in many UK towns and Cities.
This winter may bring severe icing on the River Clyde, Thames, Loch Lomond and even around some UK coastal areas.
The worst of the cold I believe will hit around or just after New Year following a 3rd UK-wide White Christmas in a row and may last through much of January.
Within this cold spell, Highs may struggle to reach -10C in Glasgow and Edinburgh and lows may take a run at -20C. Many English and Welsh towns and Cities may struggle to reach highs of -6 to -8C and lows may tumble towards -18 to -21C.
It is possible that the all-time coldest reading in the UK of -27C reached at both Braemar, Aberdeenshire and Altnaharra, Sutherland may be threatened if not beaten and even in areas of England we may see the first -20C low since the 1960s and 70s.
As for Europe, Arctic cold may spread continent-wide during late December and we may be looking at a period of severe cold after a snowy December from the UK to Poland.
Record cold and a maximum test to humanity, the power system and transport infrastructure may make for tough living for 2-3 weeks in January. |
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Climate- Change? All the time !
Updated: 02 Oct 2011
Climate Change
Well some of it is.
The climate is always changing, wherever you are in the world.
The Seasons and the Moon, North or South
How, you ask, is the climate going to adversely affect me?
The best advice is not to live lower than 50 metres above sea level.
Or higher than 350 metres above sea level.
But for me? I am living in a temperate climate and under the Gulf Stream influence.
However I conserve heat by insulation, collect water from the roof, I build the house of bricks, so it won’t blow down and I lock the door from all other intruders.
If I think the climate is on the change- seriously, I stay home. |
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ARCTIC ICE LOSS-CLIMATE
Updated: 21 Sep 2011
Times Atlas grossly exaggerates Greenland ice loss
Erroneous data about how much ice is vanishing due to climate change are once more at the heart of an explosive controversy.
This time, it's not the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, but the venerable Times Comprehensive Atlas of the World that is in the line of fire.
Journalists across the UK received glossy press packs last week for the launch of a new edition.
It included a press release declaring that: "For the first time, the new edition […] has had to erase 15 per cent of Greenland's once permanent ice cover – turning an area the size of the UK and Ireland 'green' and ice-free.
This is concrete evidence of how climate change is altering the face of the planet forever."
Today glaciologists have been crying foul, saying that the 15 per cent figure is wildly inaccurate.
When New Scientist contacted the Times Atlas team last week to find out where they had obtained the number, they cited the National Snow and Ice Data Centre (NSIDC) in Boulder, Colorado, but were unable to be more precise.
Little rise, big mistake
Ted Scambos, the NSIDC's expert on the Greenland ice sheet, says neither he nor his colleagues were consulted in person.
"Graduate students would not have made a mistake like this," he told New Scientist. "If what The Times has said were true, something like a metre of sea level rise would have occurred in the past decade."
That is nowhere near what measurements show.
"Currently, Greenland is losing mass at about a rate of 150 billion tonnes per year, or about one-third of a millimetre of sea level rise per year," says Scambos.
That means in the 12-year period from 1999 to 2011 that the Times Atlas analysed, meltwater from the Greenland ice sheet has contributed roughly 3 mm to global sea level rise – not 1 metre.
In total, the Greenland ice sheet holds enough ice to raise global sea level by about 7 metres, so the loss since 1999 has been less than 0.05 per cent.
Thickness, not surface area
Those numbers correspond to the mass of ice that has been lost, not how much the surface extent has shrunk, as seen from space or in a map.
Mass loss is the preferred measurement for glaciologists as it takes into account the thickness of the ice.
Scambos says the decrease in surface extent would have been "similarly tiny".
So what went wrong? Today, the Times Atlas team were unable to say whether they had spoken directly to the NSIDC.
The team say they downloaded records of ice thickness directly from the NSIDC website, used them to extrapolate the surface extent of the ice that needed to be mapped, and then compared it to what they had published in 1999.
When they did so, they found their dramatic ice loss.
But Scambos says the thickness records are not intended to show the edge of the ice sheet, so it's likely that without consulting a glaciologist directly, the cartographers misinterpreted the data.
"We are still trying to catch up on what went wrong," says Mark Serreze, adding that the datasets are very complex.
"Clearly whoever did this analysis made their own interpretation of the data.
At NSIDC we made no statement of a 15 per cent ice loss.
We do not know where that number has come from. There has been some kind of error, or some kind of mis-assessment of the data.
We're not sure. We're trying to track it down."
The error is doubly unfortunate, says Scambos, because the public may look at the smaller but real numbers and deem them insignificant.
But the rate at which Greenland is losing ice is accelerating.
The ice sheet will have made a substantial contribution to sea level rise before the end of the century, he says, and the implications are "very serious if it keeps going at the rate that we're seeing". |
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CLIMATE- AFTER KATIA
Updated: 13 Sep 2011
Does Katia mean more hurricanes are coming to Europe?
The second hurricane of the Atlantic season, hurricane Katia, has swung north and east and is heading for the UK. New Scientist explains what is happening and why.
What is Katia going to do, and what will happen in the UK?
Katia is currently off the east coast of the US and moving north-east, according to the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida. At present it is a category 1 on the Saffir-Simpson scale of hurricane strength – about as weak as a hurricane gets.
Over the weekend it will head east over the Atlantic to strike the UK on Sunday night. The British Met Office has issued severe weather warnings for the north and west of the country, beginning at midnight on Sunday night. It's not clear which areas will be hit, but gale-force and even storm-force winds are expected.
By the time it reaches the UK, Katia will no longer be a hurricane, but an extratropical storm.
What's the difference?
Hurricanes are powered by the release of heat and moisture from warm oceans, says Julian Heming of the Met Office in Exeter, UK. Wind speeds around a hurricane's core are intense, but fall off relatively quickly further away.
By contrast, storms are driven by the collision of warm and cold air masses. The winds aren't as extreme as a hurricane, but are strong over a larger area.
Katia will transform from a hurricane to an extratropical storm over the weekend, but forecasts suggest it will remain quite coherent and powerful.
Why is Katia heading for the UK?
Hurricanes form in the tropical Atlantic, and two things have to happen to send them north-east, says Heming.
Each hurricane starts out moving west towards the Americas and is held on that trajectory by a belt of high pressure called the subtropical ridge. So long as the ridge holds strong, the hurricane keeps heading west. But if part of the ridge weakens – for instance, because a low-pressure system collides with it – the hurricane can steer north.
Now over cold water, the hurricane starts losing energy. To keep going, it needs a helping hand from the jet stream, a high-altitude current of fast-moving air. "If the jet stream is strong, it can invigorate the storm and shoot it across the Atlantic very fast," Heming says.
That's what has happened to Katia. "We expect it to move very fast," say Heming, so it will have less time to weaken over the cold ocean.
Do many hurricanes turn east like Katia?
We think of Atlantic hurricanes as mostly affecting the Americas, but many of them do turn east. You can see the tracks of previous hurricanes in this interactive graphic.
The last hurricane to reach the UK was 2009's hurricane Bill, which was not particularly severe. The last to cause structural damage was hurricane Gordon in 2006, which brought heavy rain and high winds to other parts of western Europe too.
The most recent powerful hurricane to hit the UK was Lili in 1996. Before that, hurricane Charley caused plenty of damage in 1986.
Are the paths of hurricanes changing as the climate warms?
There's nothing in the weather records to suggest that, Heming says. The paths vary enormously from year to year, so it's hard to see if there are any long-term trends.
On the other side of the US, models suggest that Pacific hurricanes will shift towards the north central Pacific. As a result, Hawaii may experience more hurricanes in future decades. It's unclear if similar changes will happen in the Atlantic.
How climate change will affect hurricanes has long been a bone of contention. At the moment it seems there are no more hurricanes than before, and they may actually become slightly rarer. However, hurricanes may also become stronger with climate change.
Is this what caused the "great storm" of 1987?
On 15 October 1987, the UK was famously caught unawares by a major storm that killed 18 people and caused widespread damage. It wasn't an ex-hurricane like Katia: the storm formed over the bay of Biscay and hit the UK within hours, so it was much harder to predict.
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CLIMATE- ITS NOT ALL HOT AIR
Updated: 12 Sep 2011
Severe weather warning as Hurricane Katia tail approaches
Gales, combined with heavy rain, could cause significant disruption in Ireland, England and Scotland
- Maev Kennedy
- guardian.co.uk, Sunday 11 September 2011 13.20 BST
The tail of Hurricane Katia will bring gale-force winds to Britain. Photograph: AFP/Getty Images
A severe weather warning covering northern Ireland, England and Scotland has been issued by the Met Office, with forecasts saying Britain will be lashed by the tail of Hurricane Katia, causing gale-force winds of up to 80mph late on Sunday and Monday.
The gales, combined with heavy rain, could cause "significant disruption" for Monday morning commuters and, where high winds coincide with high tides along western coasts, there could be flooding.
Although the winds will not be hurricane force by the time Katia – rated a category four hurricane at its peak – reaches the UK, the Met Office chief forecaster, Eddie Carroll, urged people to keep up to date with forecast warnings.
He added: "There's still a fair amount of uncertainty about the track and strength of the winds."
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CLIMATE- UK-HEARD IT THROUGH THE GRAPEVINE- EXPECT MORE EXTREME SWINGS IN THE WEATHER
Updated: 12 Sep 2011
English wine
Heard it through the grapevine
The sparkling—and surprising—success of England’s wine industry
Sep 10th 2011 | DORKING | from the print edition
Economist
IT WAS an English cuvée for a very English day. “Nervy”, with “an austere, honeyed character”, was how one winemaker described the bubbly on offer on a wet afternoon at Denbies, a vineyard in Surrey that is also Britain’s largest.
Nervy and austere, too, is the connoisseur’s traditional view of British-made wines.
But after years of reputational blight, the industry is starting to see the buds of progress.
Denbies’ sparkling wine tastes biscuity and refreshing; it will soon be the only English bubbly in stock in the classiest house-label range at Sainsbury’s, a big supermarket.
Denbies’ rosé was awarded a gold medal at this year’s International Wine Challenge, and other English and Welsh vintages, particularly some of the fizzy wines produced by Nyetimber and Ridgeview in Sussex, are trumping more venerable competitors on the world stage.
British consumers are keen. In 2010, when overall wine-drinking dropped by 1.7%, Britons downed 17.6% more domestic sparkling wine than they had the year before, and 71.2% more of the home-grown still stuff.
Admittedly, this growth is sprouting from a tiny base.
Domestic crops accounted for around 0.3% of the 1.8 billion bottles that British drinkers polished off last year; the 4m bottles made from grapes that were grown and produced at home would slake the country’s thirst for less than a day.
France, by contrast, corked and capped no less than 5 trillion bottles of local serum in the same period.
Even so, on the much-derided British side of the business, any improvement is encouraging.
Why now? “It’s partly climate, partly education and partly ambition,” says Matthew Hudson, head of the wine-business course at Plumpton College in East Sussex.
Climate change is improving once-uncongenial British conditions; harvests are earlier and sun-hungry French varieties are replacing hardier Germanic vines.
Richard Selley, a professor in the earth-science and engineering department of Imperial College, London and author of a book on vineyards, predicts that the wintry slopes of Scotland could be home to a “Côte d’Écosse” by 2080 (see map).
The weak pound has made foreign drops pricier and given a boost to local wines, says Julia Trustram Eve of the English Wine Producers’ association.
Cannier viticulture and higher professional standards are also bearing fruit. Britain’s winemakers are overcoming the impediment of small harvests—which make technical experimentation commercially risky—by sharing expertise and focusing on top-shelf vintages for the discerning buyer.
Sparkling wines, which command high margins, are a good bet.
The acidic grapes that produce them grow well, too: in geological antiquity the chalk hills of southern England were attached to the Champagne region of northern France.
Not everything is rosy.
Cheap booze known as “British wine,” made at home from imported grape juice, threatens the reputation of its flashier cousins.
Even glitzy winemakers sometimes supplement local grapes.
There are whispers that the industry has invested too heavily in sparkling wines and may struggle to find a market for all of its output in the future.
And climate change is not entirely good news: the likelihood of more extreme swings in weather will not make for easy harvests.
Still, the short-term future looks bright for Britain.
Gone are the days when, as in 2005, the Italian prime minister, Silvio Berlusconi, could boast of sending 24 bottles of Italian red to a Swedish counterpart who was apparently “aghast” at the Welsh and English wines served up at an EU summit.
Now, as Mediterranean grape-growers move north to escape the unseasonable heat, they may need to look to newly-temperate Britain for inspiration.
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CLIMATE- CUBA ANTICIPATES SEAL LEVEL RISES BY 27 CENTIMETRES BY 2050 AND 85 CMS BY 2100
Updated: 09 Sep 2011
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C U B A
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Havana. September 8, 2011
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Precaution in the face of
climate change
Orfilio PeláezRESEARCH undertaken as part of the Cuban Macro-project on coastal threats and vulnerability in 2050 and 2100, with the participation of specialists from 16 scientific institutions in the country, determined that rising sea levels are the major danger presented by climate change to Cuba's coastal areas.
According to the models applied by specialists at the Meteorology Institute, sea levels could rise 27 centimeters by 2050 and 85 centimeters by 2100, while oceanographers estimate the change at 31.14cm and 84.92cm respectively.
Taking these projections into consideration, it is possible that by 2050 2,550 square kilometers of land will be submerged, equivalent to 2.32% of the nation's total surface area, a figure which could rise to 5,994 by 2100.
Determining areas which could be permanently inundated required the use of advanced digital technology, including the analysis and processing of a bank of data describing the depth of waters off Cuba's coastline.
Within a shorter timeframe, flooding and waves caused by severe hurricanes are the principal dangers posed by climate change in Cuba, given the damage caused by such phenomena to homes, buildings of economic importance, healthcare facilities, schools, roads and other sites located in low and very low zones along or close to the coast.THE STUDY'S CONTRIBUTIONS
In order to fully evaluate the consequences of the aforementioned information, the Physical Planning Institute (IPF), with its provincial and municipal branches, undertook the first stage of an impact and vulnerability study of waterfront communities given the projected effects of climate change and severe weather conditions by 2050 and 2100.
Geographer Carlos M. Rodríguez Otero, one of the principal authors of the work, explained to Granma that, according to the investigation, if no steps are taken to adapt accordingly, by 2050 a total of 122 localities will be seriously or partially affected by rising sea levels, including 15 which could disappear entirely by that date and another six by the end of the century.
These include beachfront communities in the provinces of Pinar del Río, Artemisa, Mayabeque, Villa Clara, Sancti Spíritus, Ciego de Avila, Camagüey and Las Tunas.
By 2100, as many as 577 waterfront towns could see periodic coastal flooding of varying magnitude, associated with a direct or indirect hit by a severe hurricane, given the extreme surges and tides often caused by these phenomena.
Rodríguez indicated that the areas in most danger are those at just one meter above sea level and at up to 1,000 meters inland from the coastline.
Based on the understandings developed over the last few years and the use of advanced mathematical models, he said, "We have developed a base of data which allowed us to craft several different maps showing the probable permanent or temporary effects of climate change, as well as ocean surges and waves caused by very strong hurricanes. We also evaluated the risks in each area specifically."
"Today, we are aware of every place that could be affected, the magnitude of possible damages to dwellings and other buildings, exactly how far the water could reach, among other valuable pieces of information which place Cuba in an excellent position to reduce the vulnerability of threatened coastal settlements."
To do so requires the design and implementation of policies and measures which contribute to the adaptations necessary to protect the sites in danger, minimize risks and guarantee the safety of the population, as well as economic and social activity.
This includes the re-establishment of order and discipline in the implementation of regulations developed by physical planning authorities, in order to avoid making poor investments in threatened areas, with particular attention to engineering works to reduce risks to those located along the coast, which will require the active participation of communities and others involved.
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CLIMATE- RUNNING DRY ? DROUGHT ? THINK DESALINATION !
Updated: 05 Sep 2011
Monitor
Drops to drink
Desalination:
A technique called electrodialysis
may provide a cheaper way to freshen
seawater for human consumption
Sep 3rd 2011 | from the print edition
SINGAPORE’S average annual rainfall is more than double that of notoriously soggy Britain, so the casual observer might be surprised to learn that the place has a shortage of drinking water.
Yet with around 7,000 people per square kilometre, Singapore is the third most densely populated country in the world.
Its land mass is not large enough to supply its 5m inhabitants with water.
One answer is to desalinate seawater.
That, though, is expensive, so the Singaporean government is keen to find cheaper ways of doing it.
And, in collaboration with Siemens, a German engineering conglomerate, it may have done so, for Siemens says its demonstration electrochemical desalination plant on the island can turn seawater into drinking water using less than half the energy required by the most efficient previous method.
To make seawater fit for human consumption its salt content of approximately 3.5% must be cut to 0.5% or less.
Existing desalination plants do this in one of two ways.
Some employ distillation, which needs about 10 kilowatt-hours (kWh) of energy per cubic metre of seawater processed.
Brine is heated, and the resulting water vapour is condensed. Other plants employ reverse osmosis.
This uses molecular sieves that pass water molecules while holding back the ions, such as sodium and chloride, that make water salty.
Generating the pressure needed to do this sieving consumes about 4kWh per cubic metre.
The Siemens system, by contrast, consumes 1.8kWh per cubic metre, and the firm hopes to get that down to 1.5kWh.
It works using a process called electrodialysis, in which the seawater is pumped into a series of channels walled by membranes that have slightly different properties from those used in reverse osmosis. Instead of passing water molecules, these membranes pass ions.
Moreover, the membranes employed in electrodialysis are of two types.
One passes positively charged ions and the other passes negatively charged ones.
The two types alternate, so that each channel has one wall of each type.
Two electrodes flanking the system of channels then create a voltage that pulls positively charged ions such as sodium in one direction and negatively charged ions such as chloride in the other.
The result is that the ions concentrate in half of the channels, creating a strong brine, while fresher water accumulates in the other half.
As the brine emerges, it is thrown away.
The fresher water is put through the same process twice more and eventually has its salt concentration reduced to 1%. That is not bad, but is still double what is potable. There is therefore one further step. This is to employ an ion-exchange resin in addition to the membranes. Such resins increase the electrical conductivity of the system and allow one more passage, bringing the salt concentration below 0.5%.
A demonstration plant has been operating since December, and a full-scale pilot plant should be completed by 2013.
If all goes well, then, Singapore’s inhabitants will soon no longer feel like Coleridge’s ancient mariner—that there is water, water, everywhere, nor any drop to drink.
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CLIMATE- AUSTRALIA -THE FIGHT FOR OUR PLANET'S FUTURE
Updated: 02 Sep 2011
The fight for our planet's future
Thursday, 1 September, 2011 17:58
Dear friends,
Australia is about to pass a law that would slash carbon emissions and get polluters to pay. This is the front line in the fight for our planet's future -- if we win, it could spur bold global action. But Rupert Murdoch and big polluters are fighting hard to kill the bill, spreading messages of fear across the country. We can help drown out Murdoch's mantra with messages of hope from across the world and help pass the law -- join in now:
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Right now, a major climate fight is blowing up in Australia -- the government is about to pass a law that would cut carbon emissions and get polluters to pay.
But big businesses, backed by Rupert Murdoch, are trying to kill the bill.
This carbon pricing law is a win-win measure -- it will push dirty businesses towards clean production and generate more resources for working families.
If it passes, it will spur other major emitters to follow suit and could be the next best hope for our climate.
But Murdoch's megaphone of fear is massive -- he owns seventy percent of Australia's press.
If together we can drown out his campaign to crush the bill with messages of hope from across the world, we could help it pass.
This battle is being fought on the Australian air waves now.
Sign the urgent petition to back this bold initiative and share it with everyone -- when we reach 250,000 signatures, we’ll run inspiring radio ads that deliver our global messages, lay out the benefits of the law and rouse public support:
http://www.avaaz.org/en/australian_carbon_price/?vl
We are all under threat from climate change -- including the droughts and storms that cause forest fires, floods and failed harvests.
Australia’s proposal would start to shift its economy to halt it.
The measure would make polluting companies pay, encouraging them to become more efficient while funding technologies of the future and increasing support to the most needy.
Yet Murdoch -- who has a long history of supporting climate denial -- has joined with mining companies to spread wild predictions of job losses and economic doom.
Countries like Denmark, Sweden and Costa Rica have already introduced carbon-pricing, spurring innovation and reducing pollution.
If we now embolden Australia -- the worst rich country per person carbon polluter -- to follow their lead, it will generate momentum for other major emitters such as China and the US to follow suit, boosting our chances of a global climate deal next year.
Avaaz members across the world have been strong campaigners on climate change -- our actions together have often influenced governments and companies.
Right now, Australia’s people and political leaders need our support to face down the profiteers and renew our hope in climate solutions.
When our people-powered movement counters these tendencies and proposes a clear vision of the future we want, we bring out the best in our leaders.
Let’s shore up Australia’s resolve, then approach other governments until we achieve the global climate deal the world needs.
With hope,
Alex, Stephanie, Ben, Alice, Emma, Ricken, Giulia, Carol, Rewan and the whole Avaaz team.
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Climate
