Rights and Wrongs

C U B A

Havana.  September 8, 2011

Precaution in the face of
climate change

Orfilio PeláezRESEARCH undertaken as part of the Cuban Macro-project on coastal threats and vulnerability in 2050 and 2100, with the participation of specialists from 16 scientific institutions in the country, determined that rising sea levels are the major danger presented by climate change to Cuba's coastal areas.

According to the models applied by specialists at the Meteorology Institute, sea levels could rise 27 centimeters by 2050 and 85 centimeters by 2100, while oceanographers estimate the change at 31.14cm and 84.92cm respectively.

Taking these projections into consideration, it is possible that by 2050 2,550 square kilometers of land will be submerged, equivalent to 2.32% of the nation's total surface area, a figure which could rise to 5,994 by 2100.

Determining areas which could be permanently inundated required the use of advanced digital technology, including the analysis and processing of a bank of data describing the depth of waters off Cuba's coastline.

Within a shorter timeframe, flooding and waves caused by severe hurricanes are the principal dangers posed by climate change in Cuba, given the damage caused by such phenomena to homes, buildings of economic importance, healthcare facilities, schools, roads and other sites located in low and very low zones along or close to the coast.THE STUDY'S CONTRIBUTIONS

In order to fully evaluate the consequences of the aforementioned information, the Physical Planning Institute (IPF), with its provincial and municipal branches, undertook the first stage of an impact and vulnerability study of waterfront communities given the projected effects of climate change and severe weather conditions by 2050 and 2100.

Geographer Carlos M. Rodríguez Otero, one of the principal authors of the work, explained to Granma that, according to the investigation, if no steps are taken to adapt accordingly, by 2050 a total of 122 localities will be seriously or partially affected by rising sea levels, including 15 which could disappear entirely by that date and another six by the end of the century.

These include beachfront communities in the provinces of Pinar del Río, Artemisa, Mayabeque, Villa Clara, Sancti Spíritus, Ciego de Avila, Camagüey and Las Tunas.

By 2100, as many as 577 waterfront towns could see periodic coastal flooding of varying magnitude, associated with a direct or indirect hit by a severe hurricane, given the extreme surges and tides often caused by these phenomena.

Rodríguez indicated that the areas in most danger are those at just one meter above sea level and at up to 1,000 meters inland from the coastline.

Based on the understandings developed over the last few years and the use of advanced mathematical models, he said, "We have developed a base of data which allowed us to craft several different maps showing the probable permanent or temporary effects of climate change, as well as ocean surges and waves caused by very strong hurricanes. We also evaluated the risks in each area specifically."

"Today, we are aware of every place that could be affected, the magnitude of possible damages to dwellings and other buildings, exactly how far the water could reach, among other valuable pieces of information which place Cuba in an excellent position to reduce the vulnerability of threatened coastal settlements."

To do so requires the design and implementation of policies and measures which contribute to the adaptations necessary to protect the sites in danger, minimize risks and guarantee the safety of the population, as well as economic and social activity.

This includes the re-establishment of order and discipline in the implementation of regulations developed by physical planning authorities, in order to avoid making poor investments in threatened areas, with particular attention to engineering works to reduce risks to those located along the coast, which will require the active participation of communities and others involved.